MARKET CONTEXT: VOO $634.02 (RSI 48, at SMA — stabilizing) | QQQ $608.81 (RSI 42, -0.8% below SMA) | VIXY $28.31 (RSI 62, fear elevated, not collapsing) | GLD $468.62 (RSI 58, breaking out +5.6% 30D)
Market is in tentative recovery off Feb lows. 14 entry zones active (3 extreme, 8 oversold, 3 approaching). ASAN is the sole GOLDEN signal. HIMS RSI 4 is most extreme oversold in universe but insiders fleeing. No all-clear until VIXY drops below RSI 50.
Entry Zones (IN ZONE NOW)
EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 20) - Capitulation Territory
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| HIMS |
$15.63 |
<$16 |
4↓ |
-45.9% |
consumer-scan, holdings |
✅ Strong Buy (Speculative) |
RETURNING. RSI 4 = most extreme oversold in universe. -46% 30D. BUT insider selling -$186.5M. Size very small, high risk only. |
| ISRG |
$476.32 |
<$480 |
9↓ |
-19.7% |
bargain-bin |
✅ Strong Buy |
RETURNING. Surgical robotics monopoly. RSI 9 — no bounce vs. Feb 16. Insider selling -$282.6M tempers conviction. |
| PYPL |
$40.29 |
<$42 |
13↓ |
-30.1% |
bargain-bin |
📈 Accumulate |
NEW. -30% 30D. Venmo + Braintree dominant. Turnaround thesis. Speculative tier. |
| ORCL |
$152.95 |
<$158 |
15↓ |
-20.4% |
bargain-bin |
✅ Strong Buy |
NEW. Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling. -20% 30D, -11.5% 7D earnings shock. Database moat intact. Best new extreme entry. |
| INTU |
$380.55 |
<$390 |
18↓ |
-27.5% |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
✅ Strong Buy |
RETURNING. Tax season tailwind. TurboTax monopoly. Deeper than Feb 16 ($399→$381). Highest quality extreme entry. |
| NFLX |
$80.78 |
<$85 |
19↓ |
-11.7% |
bargain-bin, holdings |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Ad tier + password crackdown driving revenue. Insider selling -$1.3B = caution. |
| TMO |
$510.93 |
<$520 |
19↓ |
-19.7% |
bargain-bin, holdings |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. RSI bounced 5→19 from Feb 16. GLP-1 research tailwind. Insider selling -$320.3M tempers conviction. |
| ASAN |
$9.91 |
$9-$10 |
19↓ |
-23.1% |
insider-scan, holdings |
🏆 Golden Signal |
RETURNING. RSI 19 + $8.3M insider BUYING = sole golden signal. Best risk/reward in universe. |
OVERSOLD (RSI 20-30) - Strong Entry Zone
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| WDAY |
$137.81 |
<$142 |
21↓ |
-24.9% |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Enterprise HR lock-in. -25% 30D, deepening from Feb 16 ($144→$138). DCA slowly. |
| PINS |
$22.00 |
$20-$23 |
21↓ |
-17.0% |
holdings |
🔍 Watch |
RETURNING (holdings). -15% 7D. Insider selling -$116.3M. Social media under pressure. |
| ZS |
$169.39 |
<$172 |
23↓ |
-23.7% |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Zero-trust secular tailwind. -24% 30D. Insider selling -$174.3M = caution. |
| NOW |
$102.63 |
<$108 |
24↓ |
-31.0% |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
✅ Strong Buy |
RETURNING. 99% renewal rate. -31% 30D unchanged from Feb 16. IT workflow monopoly at extreme discount. |
| SAP |
$196.98 |
<$202 |
24↓ |
-18.1% |
bargain-bin |
📈 Accumulate |
NEW. Global ERP leader -18% 30D. Cloud transition narrative pressured. Entry zone forming. |
| AMZN |
$210.11 |
$205-$215 |
25↓ |
-9.2% |
ai-scan, bargain-bin, holdings |
✅ Strong Buy |
RETURNING. AWS AI capex beneficiary. Bouncing off RSI 17 lows. Insider selling -$10.9B (Bezos estate context). |
| META |
$655.66 |
$640-$660 |
26↓ |
+7.0% |
ai-scan, bargain-bin |
📈 Accumulate |
NEW. Only name in zone with positive 30D (+7%). Pullback from highs, not breakdown. Llama AI optionality. Insider selling -$318.3M. |
| CRM |
$185.16 |
<$190 |
27↓ |
-16.4% |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Agentforce AI cycle beginning. Enterprise CRM lock-in. Insider selling modest -$58.9M. |
| OKTA |
$81.64 |
$78-$84 |
28↓ |
-6.9% |
bargain-bin |
🔍 Watch |
RETURNING. Identity management needed, breach overhang lingers. Needs catalyst before buying. |
| UNH |
$293.19 |
<$298 |
29↓ |
-12.5% |
bargain-bin |
🔍 Watch |
RETURNING. Regulatory/political risk elevated. Bouncing off low. Watch for stabilization. |
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) - Watch Closely
| Stock |
Current |
Zone |
RSI |
30D Chg |
Source |
Action |
Notes |
| ADBE |
$269.39 |
$265-$272 |
30↓ |
-19.8% |
bargain-bin |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Firefly AI underappreciated. Creative cloud monopoly at -20% 30D. RSI at 30 threshold. |
| MSFT |
$397.23 |
$390-$400 |
31↓ |
-10.4% |
ai-scan, cloud-etfs, holdings |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. Enterprise AI leader. Approaching oversold from above. Generational entry forming. |
| GOOGL |
$314.98 |
$308-$318 |
32↓ |
-4.1% |
ai-scan, holdings |
📈 Accumulate |
RETURNING. MACD improving. Mega-cap search/cloud. Strongest recovery attempt. |
Price Alerts (Waiting for Entry)
| Stock |
Alert |
Entry Zone |
Source |
Set Date |
Status |
| INTU |
Confirmed in zone |
$375-$390, RSI < 20 |
cloud-etfs, bargain-bin |
2026-02-16 |
✅ In Zone |
| AMD |
$195-$205 |
RSI < 35, approaching oversold |
ai-scan |
2026-02-22 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI 34, in zone now |
| TSLA |
$380-$415 |
Wait for RSI < 30 for upgrade |
insider-scan |
2026-02-22 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI 39, insider buying $200.6M |
| ARM |
$110-$115 |
Wait for RSI reset from 78 |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-16 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI still elevated |
| TSM |
$345-$355 |
SMA retest |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-16 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI still elevated |
| NVDA |
$183-$186 |
RSI < 45 SMA retest |
nvda-ecosystem |
2026-02-22 |
⏳ Watching — RSI 49, above zone |
| ARKK |
$65-$70 |
RSI < 20 full capitulation |
etf-universe |
2026-02-16 |
⏳ Waiting — RSI 24, structure broken |
Exit Alerts (Holdings)
| Stock |
Alert |
Type |
Entry |
Current |
P&L |
Set Date |
Status |
| BE |
$140 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$164.96 |
$147.55 |
-10.6% |
2026-02-03 |
🟡 Above stop — monitor |
| WMT |
$109 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$128.08 |
$122.99 |
-4.0% |
2026-02-03 |
🟡 Above stop — monitor |
| NET |
$151 |
Stop-loss (-15%) |
$178.30 avg |
$177.14 |
-0.7% |
2026-01-26 |
🟡 Well above stop |
| PHGE |
RSI 77, parabolic |
Sell into strength |
— |
$6.23 |
+176% |
— |
🚨 Sell into strength — RSI 77 |
| TWST |
RSI 75, running |
Don't chase |
— |
$46.81 |
+36% |
— |
⚠️ Hold but don't add |
| MRNA |
RSI 67, surging |
Watch for fade |
— |
$49.87 |
+24% 7D |
— |
⚠️ Watch for reversal |
Sector Rotation Signals
| Signal |
Trigger |
What It Means |
Status |
| Gold breakout |
GLD RSI 58, +5.6% 30D, above SMA |
Safe-haven demand strong, risk appetite cautious |
🟢 ACTIVE — Accumulate GLD |
| Bonds still bid |
TLT RSI 64 |
Risk-off not fully resolved |
🟠 Monitor — don't go heavy long equities |
| VIXY elevated |
RSI 62, $28.31, unchanged from 2/16 |
Fear persistent — no all-clear for growth names |
🟠 Monitor — VIXY < 50 needed for all-clear |
| EM outperformance |
EEM RSI 69, +5.9% 30D |
Rotation away from US tech |
🟢 Hold/Add EEM |
| Growth recovery attempt |
VOO RSI 48↑ (was 40), QQQ RSI 42↑ (was 37) |
Index ETFs bouncing off Feb lows |
🟡 Tentative — needs SMA reclaim |
| Cloud/SaaS washout |
WCLD RSI 33, IGV RSI 32, CLOU RSI 33 |
Software basket at capitulation |
🟢 TRIGGERED — Accumulate baskets |
| Nasdaq lagging S&P |
VOO RSI 48 vs QQQ RSI 42 |
Tech still underperforming broad market |
🟡 Watching |
Insider Activity Summary
| Signal |
Stocks |
Implication |
| 🏆 GOLDEN |
ASAN (RSI 19 + $8.3M buying) |
Sole golden signal — insiders buying at capitulation. Best risk/reward in universe. |
| 🟢 BUYING |
TSLA (+$200.6M), CRSP (+$26.6M) |
TSLA at neutral RSI 39 (not oversold); CRSP at RSI 58 — insider confidence |
| 🔴 EXTREME SELL INTO DIP |
HIMS (-$186.5M, RSI 4), U (-$282.4M, RSI 15), SOFI (-$651.1M, RSI 17) |
Catastrophic signal — insiders abandoning during freefall. Avoid. |
| ⚠️ SELLING INTO DIP |
NFLX (-$1.3B, RSI 19), TMO (-$320.3M, RSI 19), AFRM (-$327M, RSI 24), ZS (-$174.3M, RSI 23), CRM (-$58.9M, RSI 27), PINS (-$116.3M, RSI 21), META (-$318.3M, RSI 26), AMZN (-$10.9B, RSI 25) |
Smart money exiting oversold positions — tempers buy signals |
| 🔍 SELLING AT NEUTRAL |
PLTR (-$4.7B), LLY (-$4.8B), NVDA (-$3B), SNOW (-$1.2B), MSFT, GOOGL |
Large distribution at neutral RSI — institutional profit-taking |
Pending Research Actions
| Action |
Source |
Priority |
Status |
| Initiate ASAN position (RSI 19, +$8.3M insider buying, sole golden signal) |
insider-scan |
CRITICAL |
🔍 Todo |
| Research ORCL entry (RSI 15, NEW — Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling, -20% 30D) |
bargain-bin |
HIGH |
🔍 Todo |
| INTU entry execution (RSI 18, tax season tailwind, deepening from $399→$381) |
cloud-etfs, bargain-bin |
HIGH |
🔍 Todo |
| Decide U position (RSI 15, -37% 30D, -33% 7D — cut or hold?) |
holdings |
HIGH |
🔍 Todo |
| Review HIMS stop-loss (RSI 4, -46% 30D, insiders selling — exit or small speculative add?) |
holdings, consumer-scan |
HIGH |
🔍 Todo |
| Trim PHGE (RSI 77, +176% 30D parabolic — sell into strength) |
holdings |
HIGH |
🔍 Todo |
| Accumulate software ETF basket (WCLD, IGV — RSI 32-33, cloud capitulation triggered) |
cloud-etfs, etf-universe |
MEDIUM |
🔍 Todo |
| Monitor VIXY (RSI 62, unchanged — all-clear only when RSI < 50) |
market-pulse |
MEDIUM |
⏳ Watching |
| Research SAP entry (RSI 24, NEW — global ERP -18% 30D) |
bargain-bin |
MEDIUM |
🔍 Todo |
| NOW deep dive refresh (RSI 24, -31% 30D — 99% renewal, monopoly at extreme) |
bargain-bin, cloud-etfs |
MEDIUM |
🔍 Todo |
| Research PYPL turnaround thesis (RSI 13, NEW — Venmo/Braintree moat intact?) |
bargain-bin |
LOW |
🔍 Todo |
| LLY deep dive (GLP-1 thesis, -$4.8B insider selling, approaching SMA) |
biotech-scan |
LOW |
🔍 Todo |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| ASAN is sole GOLDEN signal for second consecutive scan |
Highest conviction entry in universe — RSI 19 + $8.3M insider buying. Size up. |
| ORCL is NEW at RSI 15 — freshest extreme entry |
Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling story getting a panic-sell discount. Best new idea this cycle. |
| 11 oversold stocks have insider SELLING (HIMS, U, SOFI, NFLX, TMO, AFRM, ZS, PINS, CRM, AMZN, META) |
Smart money is NOT buying the dip broadly. RSI alone is insufficient — always cross-check insider data. |
| VOO RSI 48 (was 40), QQQ RSI 42 (was 37) — indices stabilizing |
Feb selloff appears to have found a floor, but no decisive reclaim. Tentative recovery. |
| GLD breaking out to new highs, RSI 58 |
Safe-haven demand strong alongside equity bounce = risk appetite fragile. Gold still has room before overbought. |
| VIXY RSI 62 unchanged from Feb 16 |
Fear hasn't resolved. Do not go heavy long until VIXY drops below RSI 50. |
| SHOP recovered +14% 7D from RSI 35→46 |
Oversold bounces can be violent — SHOP validated the oversold entry thesis flagged on Feb 16. |
| Cloud ETF basket (WCLD RSI 33, IGV RSI 32) at washout levels |
Sector-level SaaS capitulation triggered — lower-risk entry via ETF basket vs. individual names. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Treating HIMS RSI 4 as pure buy signal |
RSI 4 looks like capitulation — but -$186.5M insider selling at that RSI means insiders see more pain. Always check insider data. |
| Buying NET at $191.11 (first bounce attempt) |
Now at $177.14 (-7%). Buy deeper in oversold, not on first bounce. Wait for RSI < 30. |
| Missing WMT reversal from RSI 78 |
WMT defensive thesis didn't protect at overbought. Trim signals matter — RSI > 78 = trim, not hold. |
Open Questions
- Is HIMS RSI 4 a buy or falling knife? FDA compounding ban risk — insiders fleeing or pure fear-selling?
- U at RSI 15, -37% 30D: hold thesis or cut losses? What broke fundamentally?
- ASAN golden signal: are the $8.3M buys from founders or institutional insiders? Founders = higher conviction.
- AMZN -$10.9B Bezos selling: estate planning (ignore signal) or operational concern?
- ORCL -20% 30D: earnings miss or sector rotation? Is Oracle Cloud thesis intact?
- Will VIXY drop below RSI 50 as a clean all-clear signal, or does macro headwind persist?
- TSLA $200.6M insider buying at RSI 39 — does it become golden if RSI drops to 30?
Sources
Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's validated daily scan
summaries (summaries). No number in this note was
computed in prose.