Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (70 ranked) by 30-day median relative strength vs SPY — shown in RS points.
Frozen snapshot · as of 2026-08-17Full strip →
Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (70 ranked) by 30-day median relative strength vs SPY — shown in RS points.
Frozen snapshot · as of 2026-08-14Full strip →
Over the years, Google has been improving its original 2D Torus Inter-Chip-Interconnect (ICI) network topology introduced with TPUv2, later extended to a 3D Torus starting with TPUv4 and v5p. (8-part thread.)
Same-day technical thread on the TPU interconnect lineage - the physical-layer detail behind the custom-silicon vs GPU debate, and context for the optical/ai-infra lane's read on where scale-up networks go next.
Consolidating some recent bullish points for memory: 1. All 2027 DRAM & HBM capacity at Samsung, SK hynix & Micron sold out; Kioxia can only fill 40-50% of demand per FundaAI, with hyperscalers 'begging' for supply (Digitimes). 2. SNDK investor day NAND commentary. (Thread; 176 likes.)
A tidy consolidation of the memory-supercycle case the week after Sandisk's +35% filed-buyback week: sold-out 2027 capacity claims across all three DRAM makers. Attributed to FundaAI/Digitimes - claims to verify against primary sources, but squarely on the desk's #1 lane.
Demand for Chinese chips is skyrocketing: Chinese integrated circuit industry revenue jumped +22% YoY in 2025, to a record $245 billion. Since 2020, Chinese chip industry sales have nearly doubled. As a result, China now accounts for ~6% of the global semiconductor market.
The cartographer number of the day: domestic Chinese IC revenue nearly doubled since 2020. Context for every export-control debate and for the China-baskets selloff the desk has been tracking without a driver - the domestic substitution engine is not slowing.
APP: talked to a former AppLovin employee over the weekend - notes on how the ad model compares to Meta and Google and where the moat actually sits. (Thread; 680 likes.)
Qualitative channel check on a consider-board name from a followed account: former-employee color on whether AppLovin's targeting edge survives Meta/Google competition. Use the ping, verify the claims - it is one person's view of a former employer.
JUST IN: ANTHROPIC'S REVENUE RUN-RATE HAS PASSED $65 BILLION AHEAD OF ITS IPO. The company hit that figure by the end of July, up more than sevenfold from where it ended last year, and shared it with investors as part of a regular update, per Bloomberg.
The single loudest AI-demand datapoint of the day: a $65B run-rate hit by end of July, shared with investors ahead of the IPO. Direct fuel for the ai-mega-ipo liquidity-regime thesis - the listing everyone is positioning around now has a revenue base to price.
Rationale: 20-day reclaim +2.31% on 1.53x volume, strong-up, golden cross, stacked over 20/50/200, RSI 62.6, 30d +5.22% vs SPY +2.85%; stop 5% under, trail to breakeven at +3% Price: 38.90 Shares: 89.974293 Sources - Tape/price authority:.
CME and Silicon Data will list GPU-rental futures on October 5
NYMEX-listed, cash-settled against Silicon Data's H100/B200 hourly rental indexes: one contract per month of rental expense, pending regulatory review. If these get liquidity, AI compute gets a public reference price, and every neocloud contract gets a benchmark to trade against.
Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (70 ranked) by 30-day median relative strength vs SPY — shown in RS points.
Frozen snapshot · as of 2026-08-14Full strip →
Viks Newsletter — where copper and optics still contradict each other
A fresh physics-down field read from OCP APAC on where rack connectivity remains copper and where bandwidth, reach, and power force optics. It is useful for testing the optical-supercycle boundary conditions instead of assuming every link converts at once.
$COHR's Q4 FY26 earnings were another strongly positive print. Revenue reached $2.05B, up 13.3% QoQ and 34% YoY, or 42% YoY on a pro forma basis. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 40.2%, while operating margin expanded from 20.3% to 21.8%. Non-GAAP EPS increased 74% YoY to $1.74. The key point is that strong revenue growth continues to translate into meaningful operating leverage. The strength was increasingly concentrated in AI infrastructure. Datacenter & Communications revenue reached $1.615B, up 18.6% QoQ and 59% YoY on a pro forma basis, and now represents 79% of total revenue. This makes Coherent increasingly an AI connectivity company rather than a diversified industrial photonics story. Q1 FY27 guidance remains very strong. Revenue guidance of $2.2B to $2.4B implies roughly another 12% sequential increase at the midpoint, while non-GAAP gross margin is expected at 39.5% to 41.5% and EPS at $1.85 to $2.05. More importantly, Coherent is expanding well beyond traditional pluggable transceivers. Its existing growth engines include 1.6T, 3.2T and 6.4T transceivers, ZR/ZR+ DCI, transport and optical components. New growth platforms include OCS, CPO/NPO, multi-rail optical transport and thermal solutions, which Coherent estimates could add more than $20B of incremental SAM by 2030 on top of its existing $50B+ opportunity. OCS is already beginning to generate revenue, with CPO/NPO expected to follow in H2 2026 and multi-rail in H1 2027. Capacity expansion is equally important. Coherent remains on track to double internal InP output by year-end and more than double it again by 2027. Its 6-inch InP platform is producing EMLs, CW lasers and photodiodes with higher yields than its 3-inch lines. This suggests that Coherent is positioning itself not only for higher transceiver volumes, but for a much broader optical architecture shift spanning lasers, silicon photonics, CPO and next-generation in-rack connectivity.
A useful, explicitly secondary synthesis of Coherent’s quarter: AI infrastructure is becoming the revenue center while internal InP output remains the upstream capacity question. Read it as a map back to the company call, not as primary authority; it directly informs the optical-supercycle constraint watch.
Bloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push
Chicago’s mayor is seeking a temporary data-center moratorium and new development rules. This is a second live state/local siting constraint after New York: useful evidence that power and permitting scarcity can raise the value of existing capacity while slowing greenfield delivery.
Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (70 ranked) by 30-day median relative strength vs SPY — shown in RS points.
Frozen snapshot · as of 2026-08-13Full strip →
CBRS now carries four of five desk bells after its Q2 print while the July post-flush confirmation above 221.30 remains cleared. This is a deep-dive refresh trigger, not a fresh entry: the board marks the move as already extended through the trigger.
69 washout turns across 82 watchlists — deep-drawdown names (≥25% off the 52wk high, under 5% vs SMA200) with both trailing windows positive. …
69 washout turns across 82 watchlists — deep-drawdown names (≥25% off the 52wk high, under 5% vs SMA200) with both…
Thesis: Franchise in decline, not yet a turn: FY26 revenue flat, margins compressed, and the tape at multi-year lows below the $40 volume floor - quarantine until price reclaims the $42.40 POC/50-day cluster on volume. …
482 stocks found across 82 watchlists (48 parabolic, 80 monster, 76 strong, 182 secular, 96 climbers)
482 stocks found across 82 watchlists (48 parabolic, 80 monster, 76 strong, 182 secular, 96 climbers) Parabolic (60%+…
The Read What last week added up to The index went nowhere and everything under it moved — and Monday extended the pattern rather than breaking it. SPY closed Monday at $772.67, down 0.47% on the day and off 0.05% over seven sessions, RSI 61.6, still tagged breakout on the…
Thesis: The market is pricing a broken premium-growth model: 9x trailing with guided-flat revenue, Q1 operating margin halved by tariffs and markdowns, and a founder proxy fight — closer to a washout turn than NKE, but confirmation, not cheapness, is the entry. …
Fallen-quality WATCH list graded 0-5 on the reversal signal. Watch only — entry on confirmation (>=3/5 waking, buy zone = stage-2), never on cheapness.
Fallen-quality WATCH list graded 0-5 on the reversal signal. Watch only — entry on confirmation (>=3/5 waking, buy zone…
In April and May, at the Hohenfels training grounds in Germany, a Ukrainian drone regiment repeatedly wiped out an American armored brigade. The Wall Street Journal reported the details on August 12: roughly 3,500 US personnel, built around the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team of…
Thesis: Rocket Lab is still the clearest public #2 to SpaceX — Electron flying, Neutron pre-flight but now landing its first dedicated launch contract, and a Space Systems business that just took on a transformative, unclosed acquisition of Iridium Communications …
Thesis: Reddit is GAAP-profitable with revenue growth decelerating from the high-60s to the low-60s (YoY, quarterly) but still strong, and Friday's volume-backed pop to the 200-day moving average is tied to a scheduled, mechanical demand event …
The Read The index went nowhere and everything under it moved. VOO closed Friday at $713.61, RSI 66.0, a second straight week tagged breakout — and up all of +0.41% over the week. …
🟡 ASML clears its long-standing negative-30-day flag, but AMAT drops sharply on a single-day move — a mixed cycle after several clean ones
AMAT posted a -5.12% single-day drop, pulling its RSI down to 45.0 and making it the…
61 washout turns across 82 watchlists — deep-drawdown names (≥25% off the 52wk high, under 5% vs SMA200) with both trailing windows positive. …
61 washout turns across 82 watchlists — deep-drawdown names (≥25% off the 52wk high,…
🟡 Extended names cooled slightly, laggards recovered, weekly momentum broadly reversed negative.
Expedia pushed further into overbought territory (RSI 73.9) while Airbnb and Booking…
Tier 1 — Vertical takeoff (leverage-adjusted >25% 30d OR >30% 3m) Tier 2 — ATH breakout (near 52wk high + RSI > 65)
🟡 Mostly cooling after last scan's broad rally — HD, ANF, TJX, and LULU all reversed lower, AS and DECK slid into the oversold band, and TGT is the lone name still extending.
HD's 30-day change flipped negative for the first time in this stretch (+5.77%→-0.76%),…
🟢 The collapse pocket cleared to zero for a second straight cycle, but two of the book's biggest movers carry a zero-volume caveat
IBIDF's RSI jumped from 40.3 to 71.6 — the highest in the book — on literally zero shares…
487 stocks found across 82 watchlists (47 parabolic, 78 monster, 76 strong, 184 secular, 102 climbers)
487 stocks found across 82 watchlists (47 parabolic, 78 monster, 76 strong, 184 secular,…
New discoveries: 0 | Already tracked: 82
New discoveries: 0 | Already tracked: 82 TIER 1 — PARABOLIC (60%+ above SMA200)
🟡 Rotational, not uniform — broad indices near highs and mostly steady, but energy surged, China reversed hard, and bonds slipped back toward neutral underneath
🟡 Broad, moderate-to-firm tape — no name in the file is oversold, only two are overbought
VTV and RSP are the only overbought readings in the book; precious metals…
Fallen-quality WATCH list graded 0-5 on the reversal signal. Watch only — entry on confirmation (>=3/5 waking, buy zone = stage-2), never on cheapness.
Fallen-quality WATCH list graded 0-5 on the reversal signal. Watch only — entry on…
🟡 The prior cycle's data gap resolves — AAPL/AMZN/NVDA are back — while the technical screen stays clean for a second straight cycle and BE's reversal extends further
The data gap flagged last cycle was a one-cycle fetch issue, not a lasting change — all…
🟡 Oil complex broadly strong across every layer; safe havens mixed — metals pausing, bonds lagging
🟡 A mixed cycle — the broad-market/tech sleeve holds roughly steady, but two of this cycle's clearest single-name stories (FXI/KWEB, SSPC/SPCQ) both moved the wrong direction
The universe's central tension this cycle is a still-firm broad-market/tech base set…
🟡 Small components names running well ahead of the book's two large-cap names on the session and week; the primes still carry respectable monthly gains
🟡 Two sharp reversals in opposite directions — HD and ECL both broke down while XLU staged the cut's biggest recovery …
PPC's regime cleared "collapse" for the first time in several scans — the cut now has…
🟡 Broad, moderate strength — no overbought or oversold extremes anywhere in the book
🟡 Mostly steady-to-cooling after two strong scans — ZS is the exception pushing further into overbought, while FTNT and OKTA are now the two names reading negative on the month.
FTNT's 30-day change flipped negative (+1.87%→-2.74%) for the first time in this stretch,…
🔴 The roughest cycle this book has shown in a while — one regime downgrade, two sharp reversals, and only TSLA showing continued repair
HIMS lost the regime upgrade it earned last scan, dropping back to downtrend after just…
🟡 Broad cooling across the board — no coin, ETF, or equity is oversold or overbought, but the direction is uniformly negative from last scan
🟡 A mostly cooling board — PYPL extends further into overbought while AS/DECK slide into oversold; MNST's scary print resolved to a routine 2-for-1 split re-basing.
MNST split 2-for-1 effective August 11 (100% stock dividend); on the re-based series it…
🟠 Still an extended board, but the pace has slowed — three of four names cooled on RSI while SKYY pushed further into overbought.
IGV cooled the most (RSI 68.5→64.0) and dropped out of overbought range for the first…
🟡 Sector rotated again — Dow and LyondellBasell, last scan's weakest names, reversed into this scan's strongest upgrades, while PPG re-broke down and Sherwin-Williams'…
Dow's trend upgraded from "down" to "up" and LyondellBasell from weak-down to strong-up,…
🟡 The strict screen returns zero names for the first time this window as TTD recovers off the list; AVGO's fresh crash and INTU's persistent broken flag are this cycle's clearest…
The strict screen returning zero names for the first time, paired with AVGO's fresh…
🟡 Broad pullback — every name's RSI eased and every weekly print turned negative; three of six flipped from strong-up back to weak-down.
Southwest, American, and Alaska all broke back down to weak-down trend this scan; Delta,…
Conviction: Medium (was Speculative; Q1 2026 print upgraded it) Status: Research-watch — not held, not yet sized > 2026-07-31 tape note: VICR $207.37 (+7.94% vs $192.12), RSI 39.4 (warmed from 33). …
The Story Right Now Unusual Machines closed Friday at $34.06 after a +25.04% single session — the largest one-day move in the 22-name drone-defense book — on 15,895,000 shares, a relative volume of 4.31x and $541.4M of dollar volume (2026-08-14 close; …
Editorial Note: U at $30.89 RSI 63.1 has extended the orderly digestion flagged at June 16 into a fresh leg higher. At 06/16, U was at $28.06 RSI 51.6, hugging SMA20 from just below. …