May 29
AI Power Delivery — The 30% Parasitic Loss
perspective
AI Power Delivery — The 30% Parasitic Loss
status active priority high thesis tickers 20 scan-mentioned tickers 181 events 42 latest
Six orders of magnitude voltage drop from power plant (~hundreds of thousands of volts) to transistor (~0.7V) is being redesigned simultaneously at every layer. NVIDIA's own analysis: ~30% power lost grid→GPU = 300 MW at a 1GW data center. The race to 'shorten the path' repeats at grid (HVDC), rack (800V DC), board (VRM/VPD topologies), and die (BSPDN) — every layer has different winners. NuttyCLD argues the EV supply chain (Porsche/BYD 800V SiC + GaN ecosystem) is crossing into AI infra as a second demand curve. Validated by Vertiv +152% organic orders Q4 2025, Delta passing Foxconn as Taiwan #2, Intel 18A Panther Lake ramping 6-7x in Q2, MS estimating Kyber rack power-solution value rises >10x vs GB200. UPDATE 2026-05-02: Crusoe CEO Lochmiller (operator-side) hardens incumbent-electrical bear — Eaton/Schneider 'have fundamentally not innovated in the last hundred years', exposing them to solid-state transformers + 800V DC adoption. UPDATE 2026-05-22: R25-C refreshed the perspective as stale-right, not stale-wrong: MPWR Q1 resolved positively, ETN remains the cohort laggard supporting the incumbent-bear leg, and WOLF's equity re-rate is balance-sheet repair rather than…
Watch for: MPWR Vera Rubin socket share + ASP follow-through after positive Q1 catalyst resolution, Vicor Gen 5 VPD ramp 2H 2026, BESIY orders for SK hynix HBM + foundry BSPDN, Intel 18A yield + Panther Lake unit ramp Q2 2026, TSMC A16 SPR volume timing (now 2027, was 2H 2026), NVIDIA Feynman 2028 (first AI accelerator on A16+SPR), Delta Electronics market cap relative to Foxconn, Wolfspeed substrate share plus gross-margin repair (bottoming or terminal? equity re-rate is not enough), MLCC capacity allocation pricing (Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics), ETN/Schneider response signal — defensive product announcements OR hyperscaler design-out language
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts physics-down · high confidence · small sample (n=3)
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Bloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push
Bloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push
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SemiAnalysis — AMD Helios vs NVIDIA Vera Rubin: double-wide racks and where the rack-level constraints bite
SemiAnalysis — AMD Helios vs NVIDIA Vera Rubin: double-wide racks and where the rack-level constraints bite
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