SPY perspective-fading +4.7%
All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold. (Original P&L verdict: No exit rules triggered. P&L: +4.7%, RSI 43.8, weak-down.) · current $763.25 · entry $729.24 · RSI 43.8 · 228d held · dca-larry
Desk commentary
Authored analysis and challenge notes tied to SPY.
The 2026–27 list: brittle, not broken
The Market Is a Claim on Profits, Not on Payrolls
2026 IPO-issuance-broadening monitor — reading #2 (July): gate stays YELLOW, but the speculative tail has started to re-form
2026 IPO-issuance-broadening monitor — reading #1 (H1 close): regime-top gate stays YELLOW; issuance elevated but concentrated, not broadening
mega-cap weekly dispersion by climate era — fixed-percent thresholds dilute