Market Pulse
Market Pulse
Broad market weak-down with SPY -2.3% 30D and DIA -4.6% 30D, but oil (USO +36.8% 30D, RSI 81) and volatility (VIXY +24.5% 30D) are screaming caution. Housing in freefall — XHB RSI 29, ITB RSI 27, both down 13-14% 30D. Defensive rotation into utilities (XLU +4.4% 30D), gold (GLD +1.8% 30D), and bonds (TLT flat) while financials (XLF -5.1% 30D) and consumer discretionary (XLY -2.8% 30D) buckle.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 CAUTIOUS — All major indices weak-down with golden crosses still intact but fading. Oil spiking, VIX elevated, housing collapsing. Classic late-cycle rotation: energy/utilities/gold leading, financials/consumer/housing lagging. |
| Leaders | USO (+36.8% 30D, RSI 81), XLE (+22.0% 3M), GLD (+21.1% 3M), XLU (+4.4% 30D), XBI (+2.2% 30D) |
| Laggards | ITB (RSI 27, -14.1% 30D), XHB (RSI 29, -13.5% 30D), XLF (-5.1% 30D), FXI (-7.3% 30D), EWJ (-8.0% 30D) |
US Indices
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $676.31 | 42.5 | $683.67 | $687.31 | $655.57 | -1.1% | -1.6% | weak-down | -1.3% | -2.3% | 🟡 Below SMAs, golden cross intact |
| QQQ | $607.85 | 48.7 | $606.50 | $614.32 | $589.33 | +0.2% | -1.1% | weak-down | -0.6% | -0.9% | 🟡 Flat at SMA20, tech holding up |
| DIA | $477.70 | 36.7 | $490.22 | $490.37 | $461.51 | -2.6% | -2.6% | weak-down | -2.2% | -4.6% | 🟡 Approaching oversold |
| IWM | $253.36 | 40.2 | $261.25 | $260.45 | $238.69 | -3.0% | -2.7% | weak-down | -3.4% | -4.4% | 🟡 Small caps lagging |
| VTI | $333.17 | 42.0 | $337.33 | $339.08 | $322.97 | -1.2% | -1.7% | weak-down | -1.5% | -2.4% | 🟡 Total market fading |
Summary: All five indices weak-down with RSIs 37-49. QQQ holding best (RSI 49, at SMA20), DIA weakest (RSI 37, -4.6% 30D). All maintain golden crosses above SMA200. Small caps (IWM) and Dow (DIA) showing most stress.
Sector ETFs
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $139.76 | 47.6 | $140.06 | $142.80 | $136.71 | -0.2% | -2.1% | weak-down | +3.5% | -2.3% | 🟡 Tech neutral, bouncing 7D |
| XLF | $50.06 | 34.6 | $51.64 | $53.28 | $52.62 | -3.1% | -6.0% | down | +0.1% | -5.1% | 🟡 Financials approaching oversold |
| XLE | $55.60 | 60.2 | $55.31 | $51.13 | $45.19 | +0.5% | +8.7% | strong-up | -0.1% | +1.1% | 🟢 Energy leading, +22.0% 3M |
| XLV | $153.15 | 40.7 | $156.63 | $156.48 | $143.84 | -2.2% | -2.1% | weak-down | -0.9% | -2.0% | 🟡 Healthcare fading |
| XLI | $170.02 | 44.4 | $174.69 | $168.20 | $154.64 | -2.7% | +1.1% | strong-up | -1.1% | -2.8% | 🟡 Industrials pulling back |
| XLU | $46.56 | 57.9 | $46.49 | $44.37 | $42.84 | +0.1% | +4.9% | strong-up | -1.4% | +4.4% | 🟢 Utilities strong, defensive bid |
| XLP | $85.72 | 45.3 | $87.96 | $84.20 | $80.16 | -2.5% | +1.8% | strong-up | -1.7% | -3.0% | 🟡 Staples dipping below SMA20 |
| XLY | $114.44 | 39.2 | $116.20 | $119.24 | $115.59 | -1.5% | -4.0% | down | -1.8% | -2.8% | 🟡 Consumer discretionary weak |
| XLB | $49.88 | 38.0 | $52.38 | $50.19 | $45.64 | -4.8% | -0.6% | weak-down | -1.5% | -7.0% | 🟡 Materials selling off |
| XLRE | $42.92 | 50.6 | $43.39 | $41.99 | $41.16 | -1.1% | +2.2% | strong-up | -0.1% | +0.3% | 🟡 Real estate neutral |
| XLC | $117.38 | 52.2 | $116.64 | $116.94 | $112.28 | +0.6% | +0.4% | strong-up | +1.4% | +0.6% | 🟢 Comms leading equities |
Sector ranking (30D): XLU (+4.4%) > XLE (+1.1%) > XLC (+0.6%) > XLRE (+0.3%) > XLV (-2.0%) > XLK (-2.3%) > VTI (-2.4%) > XLI (-2.8%) > XLY (-2.8%) > XLP (-3.0%) > DIA (-4.6%) > XLF (-5.1%) > XLB (-7.0%)
International
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | $99.22 | 39.3 | $103.06 | $100.90 | $92.98 | -3.7% | -1.7% | weak-down | +1.3% | -5.5% | 🟡 Developed intl selling off |
| EEM | $58.68 | 44.5 | $60.68 | $59.06 | $52.69 | -3.3% | -0.6% | weak-down | +2.9% | -4.7% | 🟡 EM fading from highs |
| VWO | $55.51 | 42.4 | $57.20 | $56.48 | $52.34 | -3.0% | -1.7% | weak-down | +2.2% | -5.1% | 🟡 EM weak |
| FXI | $36.59 | 38.2 | $37.72 | $38.74 | $38.37 | -3.0% | -5.6% | down | +3.0% | -7.3% | 🟡 China selling off hard |
| EWJ | $86.46 | 43.1 | $90.43 | $86.96 | $78.66 | -4.4% | -0.6% | weak-down | +2.1% | -8.0% | 🟡 Japan weakest international |
Summary: International markets all weak-down. Japan (EWJ -8.0% 30D) and China (FXI -7.3% 30D) weakest. Bouncing this week (+1.3% to +3.0% 7D) but still well below SMA20s. FXI below both SMA50 and SMA200.
Bonds
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $88.28 | 46.1 | $89.18 | $88.02 | $86.84 | -1.0% | +0.3% | strong-up | -0.2% | +0.6% | 🟡 Long bonds flat |
| IEF | $96.44 | 47.7 | $96.82 | $96.21 | $94.82 | -0.4% | +0.2% | strong-up | -0.2% | +0.5% | 🟡 Intermediate flat |
| HYG | $80.04 | 43.5 | $80.34 | $80.45 | $78.94 | -0.4% | -0.5% | weak-down | +0.3% | -0.5% | 🟡 High yield slightly weak |
| LQD | $110.06 | 40.9 | $110.94 | $110.47 | $108.62 | -0.8% | -0.4% | weak-down | +0.2% | -0.2% | 🟡 IG credit flat |
| BND | $74.22 | 45.2 | $74.53 | $74.19 | $72.98 | -0.4% | +0.0% | strong-up | -0.1% | +0.2% | 🟡 Agg bond flat |
Summary: Bond market largely quiet. Treasuries in strong-up trend above SMA200s. HYG and LQD slightly weak-down — credit starting to show hairline cracks. No panic in fixed income despite equity weakness.
Commodities
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $476.25 | 55.5 | $470.15 | $449.91 | $369.22 | +1.3% | +5.9% | strong-up | +0.8% | +1.8% | 🟢 Gold strong, +21.1% 3M |
| SLV | $77.88 | 50.9 | $76.06 | $77.96 | $50.03 | +2.4% | -0.1% | weak-down | +4.8% | +1.7% | 🟢 Silver bouncing |
| USO | $107.93 | 81 | $87.20 | $78.91 | $74.42 | +23.8% | +36.8% | strong-up | +17.6% | +36.8% | 🔴 Oil parabolic, extremely overbought |
| COPX | $83.06 | 44.7 | $88.29 | $84.38 | $60.22 | -5.9% | -1.6% | weak-down | -5.7% | -7.8% | 🟡 Copper miners pulling back |
| UNG | $12.88 | 55.2 | $12.04 | $12.41 | $13.58 | +7.0% | +3.8% | weak-up | +4.3% | +4.6% | 🟡 Natgas bouncing, death cross |
Summary: Oil is the headline — USO RSI 81, +36.8% 30D, +55.9% 3M. This is a potential macro shock catalyst. Gold continues strong-up trend at +29.0% above SMA200. Copper miners (COPX -7.8% 30D) diverging from base metal strength — possibly pricing in economic slowdown.
Volatility
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $32.68 | 62.2 | $28.56 | $26.99 | $35.33 | +14.4% | +21.1% | weak-up | -4.1% | +24.5% | 🟠 VIX elevated, fear rising |
| VXX | $33.71 | 62.1 | $29.52 | $27.89 | $36.33 | +14.2% | +20.9% | weak-up | -4.1% | +24.3% | 🟠 VIX elevated |
Summary: Volatility products +24% in 30 days — meaningful fear bid. Easing slightly this week (-4.1% 7D) but still 14%+ above SMA20. Not at crisis levels (still below SMA200) but elevated enough to signal caution.
Factors
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $463.28 | 46.3 | $463.09 | $475.51 | $465.68 | +0.0% | -2.6% | down | +2.9% | -1.2% | 🟡 Growth flat, below SMA200 |
| VTV | $199.92 | 38.8 | $204.99 | $200.67 | $185.76 | -2.5% | -0.4% | weak-down | -0.6% | -3.3% | 🟡 Value approaching oversold |
| MTUM | $248.28 | 46.1 | $251.33 | $253.82 | $246.58 | -1.2% | -2.2% | weak-down | +1.8% | -2.7% | 🟡 Momentum fading |
| QUAL | $200.28 | 43.7 | $202.80 | $202.50 | $192.14 | -1.2% | -1.1% | weak-down | +0.6% | -1.7% | 🟡 Quality holding up |
| RSP | $197.22 | 38.4 | $202.32 | $199.46 | $188.59 | -2.5% | -1.1% | weak-down | -0.1% | -3.1% | 🟡 Equal-weight approaching oversold |
Summary: Growth (VUG) dead flat at SMA20 but dropped below SMA200 — death cross territory. Value (VTV) approaching oversold at RSI 39 and underperforming growth on 30D basis (-3.3% vs -1.2%). Equal-weight (RSP) also nearing oversold. No factor is leading — everything fading together.
Housing & Thematic
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | vs SMA20 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $397.33 | 48.0 | $405.97 | $396.96 | $331.73 | -2.1% | +0.1% | strong-up | -0.4% | -4.2% | 🟡 Semis neutral at SMA50 |
| XBI | $127.43 | 53.9 | $125.81 | $125.38 | $104.85 | +1.3% | +1.6% | strong-up | +1.8% | +2.2% | 🟢 Biotech outperforming |
| XHB | $104.34 | 29 | $114.78 | $112.25 | $107.31 | -9.1% | -7.0% | down | -3.8% | -13.5% | 🔴 Homebuilders collapsing |
| ITB | $96.85 | 27 | $107.17 | $105.17 | $101.97 | -9.6% | -7.9% | down | -3.5% | -14.1% | 🔴 Homebuilders collapse |
Summary: Housing is the worst sector in the scan. XHB RSI 29 and ITB RSI 27 are near capitulation — both down 13-14% in 30 days, 7-10% below SMA20s, and below SMA200. This is a clear economic warning signal. Biotech (XBI) is a bright spot, outperforming with RSI 54 and above all SMAs.
Tier Analysis
Approaching Oversold (RSI 25-35) — Potential Entry Zone
| Stock | RSI | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITB | 27 | -14.1% | -9.6% | Homebuilders near capitulation |
| XHB | 29 | -13.5% | -9.1% | Homebuilders near capitulation |
Neutral-Weak (RSI 35-45)
DIA (36.7), XLF (34.6), XLB (38.0), XLY (39.2), EFA (39.3), FXI (38.2), VTV (38.8), RSP (38.4), XLV (40.7), IWM (40.2), VTI (42.0), SPY (42.5), EWJ (43.1), XLI (44.4), EEM (44.5), VWO (42.4), HYG (43.5), QUAL (43.7), XLP (45.3), BND (45.2)
Bulk of the market sits in this 35-45 RSI band — weak but not oversold. Widespread weakness.
Neutral-Strong (RSI 45-60)
QQQ (48.7), XLK (47.6), TLT (46.1), IEF (47.7), SMH (48.0), XBI (53.9), XLRE (50.6), XLC (52.2), GLD (55.5), SLV (50.9), UNG (55.2), XLU (57.9), VUG (46.3), MTUM (46.1), LQD (40.9), COPX (44.7)
Overbought (RSI 60+)
| Stock | RSI | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | 62.2 | +24.5% | +14.4% | Fear gauge elevated |
| VXX | 62.1 | +24.3% | +14.2% | Fear gauge elevated |
| XLE | 60.2 | +1.1% | +0.5% | Energy outperforming |
| USO | 81 | +36.8% | +23.8% | Oil extremely overbought |
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| ITB | $93-97 | RSI 27, -14.1% 30D. Near capitulation. If rates stabilize, homebuilders are deeply oversold. Contrarian play. |
| XHB | $100-105 | RSI 29, -13.5% 30D. Same housing thesis as ITB. Wait for RSI stabilization. |
| XLF | $48-50 | RSI 35, -5.1% 30D. Financials approaching oversold. Rate-sensitive — wait for yield curve clarity. |
| DIA | $470-478 | RSI 37, -4.6% 30D. Dow weakness may present value-stock entry. |
| FXI | $34-37 | RSI 38, -7.3% 30D. China selloff, below SMA50 and SMA200. High risk, deep value. |
| XLB | $48-50 | RSI 38, -7.0% 30D. Materials selling off — infrastructure thesis intact if macro holds. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USO | 🔴 | ⚠️ Caution | RSI 81, +36.8% 30D. Extremely overbought oil — don't chase. Macro warning signal. |
| ITB | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 27, near capitulation. Potential contrarian entry if housing data stabilizes. |
| XHB | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 29, capitulation zone. Same thesis as ITB. |
| XLE | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Strong-up trend, +22.0% 3M. Energy leadership intact. |
| XLU | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Defensive bid, +4.4% 30D, strong-up trend. |
| GLD | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | +21.1% 3M, strong-up trend, +29.0% above SMA200. Gold thesis working. |
| XBI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Outperforming, RSI 54, above all SMAs. Biotech relative strength. |
| XLC | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Only equity sector positive 7D and 30D. Comms resilient. |
| SPY | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Weak-down but golden cross intact. Wait for directional signal. |
| QQQ | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Holding at SMA20, RSI 49. Tech more resilient than broad market. |
| XLF | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 35, -6.0% below SMA50. Approaching oversold. |
| DIA | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 37, weakest index. Value rotation exhausted? |
| VIXY | 🟠 | 🔍 Watch | +24.5% 30D, fear elevated. Hedging signal, not actionable trade. |
Cross-Group Analysis
The Big Picture: This is a classic risk-off rotation with unusual characteristics:
- Oil shock: USO +36.8% 30D (RSI 81) is the dominant macro force. This is feeding into inflation fears, which explains...
- Housing collapse: ITB/XHB in freefall (-14% 30D). Rising oil = rising rates expectations = housing pain. These are the canary in the coal mine.
- Defensive bid: XLU (+4.4% 30D), GLD (+1.8% 30D), XLC (+0.6% 30D) — money flowing to safety.
- Financial stress: XLF at RSI 35, -6.0% below SMA50. Credit concern starting — watch HYG for confirmation.
- International weakness: All international ETFs -5% to -8% 30D. Global risk-off in progress.
- Volatility elevated but not panicking: VIXY +24.5% 30D but -4.1% 7D — fear spiked but hasn't accelerated further.
- QQQ vs SPY divergence: QQQ (-0.9% 30D) holding much better than SPY (-2.3% 30D) and DIA (-4.6% 30D). Large-cap tech providing relative safety.
- Golden crosses still intact: All major indices above SMA200. This is still a correction within an uptrend, not a bear market signal yet.
Key risk: If oil stays elevated and housing breakdown accelerates, the broad market golden crosses could be tested. Watch XLF RSI — a break below 30 would signal credit stress.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| USO RSI 81 with +36.8% 30D | Oil shock is the macro driver — feeding housing weakness and inflation fears |
| ITB RSI 27, XHB RSI 29 | Housing is in capitulation territory — potential contrarian opportunity OR leading indicator of recession |
| QQQ (-0.9% 30D) vs DIA (-4.6% 30D) | Large-cap tech is the relative safe haven within equities |
| XLF -6.0% below SMA50, below SMA200 | Financials broke below SMA200 — most bearish sector signal in the scan |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing USO at RSI 81 | Oil is parabolic, mean-reversion risk is extreme |
| Bottom-fishing ITB/XHB without thesis | Housing collapse could deepen if rates rise further — wait for stabilization |
| Ignoring oil's second-order effects | Oil spike is driving the entire cross-asset rotation |
Open Questions
- Is the oil spike supply-driven (geopolitical) or demand-driven? This determines duration.
- Will housing weakness bleed into consumer spending (XLY already at RSI 39)?
- Is XLF's weakness an early credit cycle signal or just rate sensitivity?
- At what point does oil's rise become self-correcting via demand destruction?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.