Market Pulse
Market Pulse
Bears are in control across nearly every asset class — energy and volatility are the only winners, while housing, tech, financials, and gold have cratered hardest; this is a broad-based risk-off selloff, not a sector rotation.
Indices
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 645.17 | 33.1 | -3.3% | +0.06% | -5.69% | down |
| QQQ | 573.79 | 34.7 | -3.9% | -0.31% | -5.40% | down |
| DIA | 459.36 | 34.8 | -2.5% | +1.23% | -5.98% | down |
| IWM | 247.43 | 43.3 | -1.7% | +3.23% | -5.18% | weak-down |
| VTI | 319.67 | 34.5 | -3.1% | +0.53% | -5.64% | down |
All five broad indices are in downtrend, clustered in the low-30s RSI — approaching oversold but not there yet. IWM is the lone relative outperformer: up +3.23% on the week and holding RSI above 43, suggesting small-caps may be finding a footing while large-cap tech drags everything else.
Sector ETFs
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | 132.48 | 36.8 | -3.9% | -0.26% | -4.41% | down |
| XLF | 49.04 | 37.9 | -1.3% | +1.65% | -4.16% | strong-down |
| XLE | 61.53 | 81.2 | +6.7% | +2.04% | +10.75% | strong-up |
| XLV | 145.75 | 33.0 | -3.2% | -0.43% | -8.64% | weak-down |
| XLI | 161.28 | 36.3 | -4.0% | +1.67% | -8.70% | weak-down |
| XLB | 49.10 | 46.6 | -1.1% | +4.64% | -7.65% | weak-down |
| XLC | 108.80 | 26.6 | -5.3% | -1.55% | -7.54% | down |
| XLRE | 40.29 | 31.4 | -4.2% | -3.82% | -7.49% | down |
| XLU | 45.33 | 46.9 | -1.8% | -3.19% | -4.37% | strong-up |
| XLP | 81.15 | 33.3 | -3.6% | -1.06% | -9.34% | weak-down |
| XLY | 108.80 | 37.1 | -3.2% | +1.54% | -6.71% | down |
XLE is the definitive standout: RSI at 81.2 (overbought), +6.7% above SMA20, and up +10.75% over 30 days — energy is in a momentum class by itself. XLC (Communications) is the most oversold sector at RSI 26.6. XLF has triggered a death cross and is classified strong-down. Healthcare (XLV) is quietly being gutted: -8.64% in 30 days.
International
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | 94.68 | 37.7 | -3.6% | +1.34% | -10.15% | weak-down |
| EWJ | 82.72 | 40.8 | -3.1% | +2.37% | -10.45% | weak-down |
| EEM | 55.45 | 39.3 | -4.5% | +1.22% | -11.39% | weak-down |
| VWO | 52.86 | 38.8 | -3.5% | +1.70% | -9.02% | weak-down |
| FXI | 34.94 | 34.7 | -3.3% | -0.08% | -6.28% | strong-down |
International equities got crushed in the 30-day window — EEM -11.39%, EFA -10.15%. However, near-term stabilization is emerging: all up +1-2% on the week except FXI (China) which is strong-down with a death cross and -16.8% from 52-week high.
Bonds
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 86.11 | 40.7 | -1.8% | -0.53% | -4.87% | down |
| IEF | 94.59 | 35.3 | -1.5% | -0.30% | -3.19% | down |
| HYG | 78.94 | 39.5 | -0.9% | +0.38% | -1.73% | weak-down |
| LQD | 107.89 | 37.8 | -1.4% | +0.13% | -3.06% | down |
| BND | 73.11 | 36.6 | -1.1% | -0.08% | -2.44% | weak-down |
Bonds are NOT providing safe-haven relief — TLT down -4.87% over 30 days. The full bond complex is in downtrend. No flight to quality. HYG holding up best at -1.73% — credit spreads haven't blown out, suggesting this is rate-driven rather than credit-crisis driven.
Commodities
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 400.73 | 30.8 | -11.3% | -1.15% | -17.16% | weak-down |
| SLV | 60.79 | 35.6 | -15.8% | +4.12% | -28.47% | weak-down |
| USO | 117.29 | 64.0 | +8.5% | -6.11% | +43.12% | strong-up |
| COPX | 70.94 | 37.5 | -11.1% | +8.21% | -25.87% | weak-down |
| UNG | 11.83 | 44.3 | -3.3% | -8.56% | +2.69% | strong-down |
Gold crashed -17% in 30 days while equities also fell — highly unusual, suggesting forced liquidation. Silver even worse at -28.47%. Both bouncing this week. USO is the mirror opposite — up +43% in 30 days. COPX crashed -26% but bounced +8% this week, potentially signaling a floor in industrial metals.
Volatility
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | 35.50 | 61.1 | +10.9% | -4.06% | +27.42% | up |
| VXX | 36.75 | 61.4 | +11.0% | -4.06% | +27.16% | up |
Both VIX proxies up +27% over 30 days but pulled back -4% this week — first meaningful vol compression. Alongside index bounces (IWM +3.23%), suggests the acute panic phase may be passing.
Factors
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | 432.71 | 32.0 | -4.7% | -0.34% | -6.11% | strong-down |
| VTV | 196.25 | 39.5 | -1.7% | +1.02% | -5.31% | weak-down |
| MTUM | 238.34 | 38.7 | -3.3% | +1.53% | -5.69% | down |
| RSP | 191.03 | 37.0 | -2.4% | +0.15% | -6.40% | weak-down |
| QUAL | 190.19 | 32.4 | -3.6% | +0.51% | -6.96% | down |
Growth (VUG) in strong-down with death cross; value (VTV) merely weak-down. RSP outperforming cap-weighted SPY on a 3-month basis. Growth-to-value rotation is confirmed and structural.
Housing
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | 98.06 | 33.9 | -5.3% | +2.71% | -14.79% | down |
| ITB | 90.31 | 32.0 | -5.7% | +1.99% | -15.84% | down |
Housing is the most damaged non-commodity sector. Both down ~15% in 30 days, -20-23% from 52-week highs. Bouncing this week but no catalyst for recovery while rates stay elevated.
Semiconductors & Biotech
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | 380.61 | 41.9 | -3.4% | +2.49% | -6.34% | weak-down |
| XBI | 123.92 | 50.1 | 0.0% | +3.11% | -2.71% | weak-down |
XBI is the quiet standout: RSI exactly 50, flat vs SMA20, only -2.71% over 30 days — most resilient non-energy instrument in this scan.
Cross-Group Analysis
1. No flight to quality. Equities, bonds, AND gold are all falling simultaneously. This is either forced deleveraging or a structural rate shock. Only the dollar works as safety.
2. Energy is the outlier — and it's extreme. XLE RSI 81.2, USO +43% in 30 days. Something structural (Iran/Hormuz supply shock) is driving oil while everything else falls.
3. Volatility fading from peak. VIXY/VXX down -4% this week. IWM, DIA, XLB, COPX all bouncing. The acute selloff phase may be moderating.
4. Growth-to-value rotation confirmed. VUG (growth) strong-down with death cross. VTV (value) merely weak-down. RSP outperforming SPY by ~5% over 3 months. Classic late-cycle rotation.
5. China structurally broken. FXI is the only international equity in strong-down with death cross while the rest of EM/DM bounces.
6. Silver/copper crash then bounce. SLV -28% in 30D but +4% this week. COPX -26% but +8% this week. Industrial metal volatility suggests tariff/trade uncertainty followed by positioning unwinds.
Action Matrix
Top 5 Buy Signals
| # | Symbol | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | XBI | RSI 50, flat vs SMA20, only -2.71% 30D — most resilient non-energy sector |
| 2 | IWM | Best index this week (+3.23%), RSI 43 — small-cap leadership rotation |
| 3 | COPX | +8.21% this week after -26% crash, RSI 37.5 — washout bounce |
| 4 | SLV | -28% in 30D, bouncing +4% this week, extreme dislocation from SMA20 |
| 5 | XLB | Materials +4.64% this week, RSI 46.6 — early cyclical rotation |
Top 5 Sell/Trim Signals
| # | Symbol | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLE | RSI 81.2 — overbought. +10.75% 30D. Trim energy exposure |
| 2 | USO | +43% in 30D, -6% this week — first exhaustion signal |
| 3 | VUG | Strong-down + death cross, RSI 32. Growth is broken |
| 4 | XLF | Strong-down + death cross, -13% from high |
| 5 | ITB/XHB | -15% in 30D, no floor visible while rates elevated |
Data: 2026-03-26 pre-computed summaries. Cross-ref: perspectives/2026-03-26-iran-war-oil.md
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.