Market Pulse Scan
Market Pulse Scan
The relief rally has legs: broad risk-on across all indices (SPY +3.6% 30D, RSI 66), QQQ nearly at all-time highs (RSI 71), semis on fire (SMH +10.9% 7D, RSI 70) — but energy (XLE RSI 39, -6% 7D) and nat gas (UNG RSI 36, -13% 30D) are the glaring laggards, and VIX products have imploded (-16% 7D), signaling peak complacency.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 BROAD RISK-ON — WATCH FOR EXHAUSTION — SPY +4.8% 7D, QQQ at near-ATHs (RSI 71), momentum (MTUM RSI 75) near record highs. Market breadth solid but some sectors extended. |
| Leaders | SMH (+10.9% 7D, RSI 70), IWM (+9.9% 30D), MTUM (+13.6% 30D), EEM (+11% 30D), XLB (+6.1% 30D) |
| Laggards | UNG (-13% 30D, RSI 36), XLE (-3% 30D, RSI 39), XLP (-3.5% 30D, RSI 43), GLD (-2.2% 7D, RSI 47) |
| Key insight | Vol products in freefall (VXX -16% 7D, RSI 39) — market is pricing a full resolution of the geopolitical premium. Energy sector lagging oil spot price (XLE below SMA20). Small caps (IWM +9.9% 30D) outperforming = no recession signal. |
Broad Market
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $690.97 | +4.8% | +3.6% | 66.1 | +4.7% | strong-up | 🟠 Near ATH, strong momentum |
| QQQ | $637.40 | +3.9% | +6.3% | 70.8 | +7.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Tech ripping — RSI 71, nearly overbought |
| DIA | $492.21 | -0.4% | +6.1% | 63.6 | +2.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Dow steady, lagging semis |
| IWM | $276.65 | +0.1% | +9.9% | 69.4 | +5.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Small caps crushing — risk-on confirmation |
| VTI | $338.67 | +3.1% | +3.1% | 63.7 | +4.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Total market in gear |
Sectors (All 11 XL* ETFs)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $145.61 | +4.4% | +5.1% | 65.1 | +6.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Tech best sector — AI spend confirmed |
| XLF | $51.66 | +1.7% | +5.3% | 62.4 | +4.3% | weak-up | 🟡 Death cross in — financials recovering but not cleared |
| XLE | $55.81 | -5.5% | -3.0% | 38.9 | -5.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Energy pulling back hard — approaching oversold |
| XLV | $147.97 | +0.3% | -1.6% | 47.7 | +0.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Healthcare lagging — defensive rotation absent |
| XLI | $172.73 | +4.7% | +4.3% | 61.7 | +4.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Industrials solid — infrastructure bid intact |
| XLU | $46.39 | +1.2% | -1.2% | 53.7 | +0.8% | strong-up | 🟡 Utilities flat 30D — data center power thesis holding |
| XLP | $81.55 | +0.05% | -3.5% | 42.7 | -0.6% | weak-down | 🟡 Staples weakest sector — rotation to growth |
| XLY | $113.92 | +3.8% | +1.7% | 56.9 | +3.7% | weak-up | 🟡 Consumer disc recovering but death cross still in |
| XLB | $52.19 | +3.7% | +6.1% | 65.6 | +5.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Materials ripping — copper + infrastructure bid |
| XLRE | $43.02 | +2.4% | +1.7% | 65.4 | +3.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Real estate strong — data center REIT bid |
| XLC | $114.82 | +1.7% | -0.1% | 57.3 | +2.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Comm services flat 30D — Mag7 mixed |
International
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | $101.77 | -1.9% | +5.3% | 54.0 | +1.1% | strong-up | 🟡 Developed markets holding 30D gains, 7D pause |
| EEM | $63.74 | +0.8% | +11.0% | 64.0 | +6.0% | strong-up | 🟠 EM ripping — dollar weakness + commodity lift |
| VWO | $57.18 | +4.7% | +3.9% | 62.7 | +5.2% | strong-up | 🟠 EM ETF confirming rotation |
| FXI | $36.86 | -2.2% | +2.4% | 52.9 | +1.4% | weak-up | 🟡 China: death cross, tariff overhang — lagging EM peers |
| EWJ | $87.32 | -2.2% | +3.0% | 50.8 | +0.3% | weak-down | 🟡 Japan stalling near SMA50 — yen risk in focus |
Bonds
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $86.75 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 49.2 | +0.4% | weak-down | 🟡 Long bonds flat — no flight to safety bid |
| IEF | $95.56 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 51.6 | +0.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Intermediate bonds sideways |
| HYG | $80.48 | -0.2% | +1.8% | 59.1 | +0.6% | strong-up | 🟠 High yield holding — credit confirms risk appetite |
| LQD | $109.60 | -0.3% | +1.2% | 52.9 | +0.3% | strong-up | 🟡 Investment grade credit stable |
| BND | $73.86 | -0.2% | +0.8% | 53.5 | +0.3% | strong-up | 🟡 Broad bonds quiet — not a fear trade |
Commodities
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $433.25 | -2.2% | +4.1% | -6.8% | 47.2 | -0.1% | weak-down | 🟡 Gold pulling back 3M — below SMA50, watching |
| SLV | $68.28 | +4.7% | -6.8% | -19.3% | 48.5 | +3.0% | weak-down | 🟡 Silver stabilizing after deep 3M pullback |
| USO | $124.50 | -10.0% | +8.2% | +71.5% | 55.2 | +0.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Oil parabolic 3M but -10% 7D consolidation — digesting |
| COPX | $82.37 | -5.0% | +8.9% | -6.5% | 50.9 | +1.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Copper miners consolidating after 30D run |
| UNG | $10.68 | -5.4% | -12.5% | +4.3% | 36.1 | -8.7% | strong-down | 🔴 Nat gas collapsing — avoid |
Volatility
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $28.62 | -8.7% | -8.7% | 40.9 | -13.5% | strong-down | 🟢 Vol collapsing — market pricing full resolution |
| VXX | $28.86 | -15.9% | -11.1% | 39.2 | -15.2% | strong-down | 🟢 VXX -16% 7D — peak complacency signal |
Factors
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $467.36 | +3.8% | +2.7% | 62.5 | +4.9% | weak-up | 🟡 Growth holding — death cross still in |
| VTV | $202.61 | +1.9% | +2.5% | 61.4 | +2.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Value participating — broad-based rally |
| MTUM | $280.90 | +2.6% | +13.6% | 74.6 | +7.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Momentum at near-ATH — RSI 75, trend is real |
| QUAL | $204.37 | +2.4% | +4.0% | 65.6 | +4.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Quality factor healthy — earnings quality rewarded |
| RSP | $198.83 | +1.6% | +2.4% | 59.6 | +2.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Equal weight rising — breadth is real |
Additional Market Benchmarks
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $443.34 | +10.9% | +12.6% | 69.6 | +11.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Semis monster move — near all-time highs |
| XBI | $132.05 | -0.3% | +6.6% | 61.3 | +5.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Biotech quietly strong |
Housing
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $105.53 | +5.8% | +4.1% | 56.7 | +5.8% | strong-down | 🟡 Housing bouncing but death cross — still recovery mode |
| ITB | $99.50 | +0.8% | +8.4% | 59.3 | +5.4% | weak-up | 🟡 Homebuilders recovering — death cross a risk |
Tier Analysis
Overbought / Approaching Overbought (RSI 65+)
- MTUM (RSI 74.6, +13.6% 30D) — momentum factor near ATH. The trend is your friend until it isn't.
- QQQ (RSI 70.8) — tech nearly overbought. Approaching territory where extended periods get painful.
- SMH (RSI 69.6, +10.9% 7D) — semis parabolic. Don't chase all-time highs.
- IWM (RSI 69.4, +9.9% 30D) — small caps strong but approaching overbought.
- QUAL (RSI 65.6), XLB (RSI 65.6), XLRE (RSI 65.4), XLK (RSI 65.1) — sector/factor extension.
Neutral (RSI 45-65)
- SPY (RSI 66.1) — just above threshold, not euphoric.
- EEM (RSI 64.0) — EM best relative performer. Dollar weakness + commodity tailwind.
- GLD (RSI 47.2) — gold neutralized, below SMA50. Not responding to macro stress.
- HYG (RSI 59.1) — credit healthy, no stress signal.
- USO (RSI 55.2) — oil consolidating post-parabolic run. Digesting.
Approaching Oversold (RSI < 45)
- XLE (RSI 38.9, -5.9% vs SMA20) — energy sector oversold vs the commodity it tracks.
- UNG (RSI 36.1, strong-down) — nat gas in structural decline.
- VXX/VIXY (RSI 39-41) — vol products at floor. Complacency entrenched.
- XLP (RSI 42.7) — defensive staples abandoned.
- GLD (RSI 47.2, -0.1% vs SMA20) — gold flat vs SMA, below SMA50.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | $55.81 | $53-57 | 38.9 | -3.0% | 📈 Accumulate | Energy oversold while USO up +71% 3M. Sector lagging commodity — catch-up trade. |
| USO | $124.50 | $118-125 | 55.2 | +8.2% | 🔍 Watch | Oil parabolic 3M — let 7D consolidation finish before adding. |
| GLD | $433.25 | $425-435 | 47.2 | +4.1% | 📈 Accumulate | Gold below SMA50, non-reaction to stress = long-term buy signal. |
| TLT | $86.75 | $85-88 | 49.2 | -0.1% | ⏳ Waiting | Bonds flat while equities rip — the setup for a tail-risk hedge is cheap here. |
| UNG | $10.68 | — | 36.1 | -12.5% | ❌ Don't Buy | Strong-down trend. No catalyst for reversal. |
| XHB | $105.53 | $100-106 | 56.7 | +4.1% | 🔍 Watch | Housing recovering but death cross. Wait for SMA200 reclaim before adding. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 70, +10.9% 7D, near ATH — don't chase semis here |
| MTUM | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 75 — if you own momentum factor, ride it. Trend intact. |
| QQQ | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 71 — core position. Don't add at ATH. |
| IWM | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 69 — small cap strength = no recession. Hold. |
| XLE | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 39, approaching oversold while oil remains elevated. |
| EEM | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | +11% 30D, RSI 64 — EM is the stealth winner. Dollar weakness trade. |
| GLD | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 47, below SMA50, 3M -6.8% — contrarian entry vs equity complacency. |
| VXX | 🟢 | ⚠️ Avoid | Don't buy collapsing vol. RSI 39, -16% 7D. Market is not afraid. |
| UNG | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | Structural decline. Strong-down. -12.5% 30D. |
| XLP | 🟡 | ❌ Don't Buy | Defensive trade is dead — money is in growth/materials/industrials. |
| TLT | 🟡 | ⏳ Waiting | Flat RSI 49 — tail-risk hedge, not a momentum trade. Alert at $90. |
Cross-Group Analysis
What the macro dashboard is telling us on 2026-04-26:
The risk-on rally is real and broad-based. SPY +4.8% 7D, IWM +9.9% 30D, EEM +11% 30D — this isn't just large-cap tech. Equal-weight RSP up +2.4% 30D. Breadth confirms the move is genuine.
Semis are the most extended, highest-conviction trade in the market. SMH +10.9% 7D, RSI 70, +11.3% above SMA20, near ATH. This is the AI compute arms race in ETF form. The risk is crowding, not the thesis.
Energy sector is lagging its commodity hard. USO +71% 3M vs XLE -3% 30D. Either XLE is the catch-up trade or the commodity move was a geopolitical premium now fading. The sector's RSI at 38.9 (approaching oversold) suggests the catch-up thesis is building.
Gold is the most important non-confirming signal. GLD -6.8% 3M, RSI 47, below SMA50. If the Iran war thesis and Hormuz premium were truly in markets, gold would be at ATHs. Instead it's retreating. Either geopolitical risk premium is deflating, or this is a major buy signal for gold.
Vol collapse is the most extreme signal on the dashboard. VXX -15.9% in 7 days, -11.1% 30D, RSI 39, -15.2% below SMA20. Complacency is at an extreme. This is the market saying every geopolitical risk has been resolved or priced away. Vol is cheap.
The momentum factor at RSI 75 is the defining signal of this cycle. MTUM at near-ATH, +13.6% 30D. This is a sustained trend, not a short squeeze. Trend-following is working — ride it with a tight trailing stop.
EM and international outperforming vs US 7D (EFA -1.9% 7D vs SPY +4.8% — but EM is +11% 30D). Dollar weakness is a structural tailwind for emerging markets. This is an underappreciated rotation.
What Changed vs 2026-04-13
Previous scan (2026-04-13): Broad risk-on rally with Hormuz blockade as fresh catalyst. USO at $128, VXX -8.7% 7D. Energy sector starting to pull back. Gold flat at RSI 49.
Today (2026-04-26): The rally extended. QQQ moved from RSI 63 to RSI 71 (approaching overbought). IWM added another +9.9% 30D. Momentum (MTUM) surged to RSI 75 near ATHs. The big change: VXX accelerated its decline (-16% 7D vs -8.7% previously) — vol products are pricing full resolution. USO has pulled back from $128 to $124 (-3% 7D). XLE has deteriorated further (RSI 39, -5.9% vs SMA20 — now approaching oversold). Gold has slipped further below SMA50 (RSI 47.2 vs 49 prior). The market in 2 weeks moved from "Hormuz risk priced in" to "Hormuz risk resolved." The question is whether that's correct.
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