Market Pulse Scan
Scan
Market Pulse Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 81 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-market-pulse.md
The AI-tech supercycle is printing new ATHs — QQQ RSI 77, XLK +19.8% 30D, SMH +47.4% 3M — while gold has broken down further (-14.9% 3M, -18.2% from ATH), energy is rolling over (-5.6% 30D, RSI 41), volatility is near multi-year lows (VXX RSI 28), and defensives continue their quiet deterioration; breadth is real (RSP near ATH, IWM RSI 64), but the distribution between AI-tech and everything else is widening to historic levels.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 OVERBOUGHT TECH / BROAD COMPLACENCY — SPY and VTI RSI 73+, QQQ RSI 77, XLK RSI 80. Markets near ATH with vol crushed and gold breaking. The AI cycle is dominant but risk/reward on new positions is stretched. |
| Leaders | XLK (+19.8% 30D, RSI 80), SMH (+18.2% 30D, +47.4% 3M), QQQ (+10.6% 30D, RSI 77), MTUM (+11.2% 30D, RSI 71), VUG (+7.7% 30D, RSI 75), EEM (+7.2% 30D, RSI 64) |
| Laggards | GLD (-14.9% 3M, RSI 45), USO (-12.2% 30D, RSI 42), XLE (-5.6% 30D, RSI 41), XLU (-5.2% 30D, RSI 41), XLP (-6.0% 3M, RSI 43), FXI (-4.7% 30D, RSI 36) |
| Key insight | Gold has deepened its breakdown: -18.2% from 52wk high, RSI 44.6, below both SMA20 and SMA50. USO pulled back -12.2% 30D. Oil AND gold rolling simultaneously while tech rips is the defining macro signal — either stress is genuinely resolved or the market is pricing in zero tail risk. VIXY/VXX at RSI 28 = historic complacency. |
Broad Market
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $756.48 | +1.2% | +5.3% | +10.5% | 73.9 ↑ | +2.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Near ATH (-1.5%), RSI pushing 74 — overbought signal |
| QQQ | $738.31 | +2.5% | +10.6% | +21.6% | 77.1 ↑ | +4.1% | strong-up | 🟠 RSI 77, -0.4% from ATH, tech supercycle print |
| DIA | $510.78 | +0.2% | +2.9% | +4.7% | 68.7 | +2.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Dow near ATH (-0.1%), healthy but lagging QQQ |
| IWM | $290.43 | +2.7% | +4.5% | +10.3% | 63.8 | +2.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Small caps healthy, RSI 64, near ATH (-0.9%) |
| VTI | $372.54 | +1.4% | +5.2% | +10.2% | 73.1 ↑ | +2.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Total market extended — broad-based overbought |
Sectors (All 11 XL* ETFs)
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $191.02 | +3.7% | +19.8% | +37.1% | 79.8 ↑ | +8.5% | strong-up | 🔴 RSI 80 — extreme overbought, AI hardware + cloud rocket |
| XLF | $51.58 | -1.3% | -1.1% | +1.1% | 51.3 | +0.1% | weak-up | 🟡 Financials flat, death cross intact, -8.7% from ATH |
| XLE | $56.29 | -4.1% | -5.6% | -0.7% | 41.2 | -3.3% | weak-down | 🟡 Energy selling off as oil rolls — RSI 41, approaching oversold |
| XLV | $149.47 | +0.5% | +2.4% | -5.3% | 57.1 | +2.0% | up | 🟡 Healthcare recovering short-term, death cross still in, -5.3% 3M |
| XLI | $173.13 | +1.4% | -0.8% | -3.0% | 51.8 | +0.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Industrials flat 30D, golden cross intact but 3M soft |
| XLU | $44.42 | -1.1% | -5.2% | -5.6% | 41.3 | -1.4% | weak-down | 🟡 Utilities weak — RSI 41, data-center power thesis not helping this name |
| XLP | $82.91 | -0.3% | -1.7% | -6.0% | 42.6 | -1.8% | weak-down | 🟡 Staples abandoned — defensive rotation fully off, RSI 43 |
| XLY | $120.87 | +2.4% | +2.1% | +4.9% | 59.6 | +1.7% | up | 🟡 Consumer disc recovering, death cross still in, +5.0% 3M |
| XLB | $51.15 | +2.6% | -0.6% | -3.5% | 50.8 | +0.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Materials flat — golden cross but losing 30D + 3M momentum |
| XLRE | $43.99 | -0.4% | -0.9% | +0.8% | 49.2 | -0.6% | strong-up | 🟡 Real estate stalling — REIT yield compression from rates |
| XLC | $115.69 | +0.7% | -0.7% | -1.5% | 47.7 | -0.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Comm services lagging — Mag7 mixed, flat 30D |
International
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | $104.80 | +0.7% | +2.4% | +1.5% | 57.6 | +1.3% | strong-up | 🟠 Developed markets quiet, near ATH (-1.1%), solid |
| EEM | $68.60 | +4.2% | +7.2% | +11.5% | 64.4 | +3.2% | strong-up | 🟠 EM stealth winner — +11.5% 3M, dollar weakness + commodity lift |
| VWO | $59.88 | +1.8% | +1.6% | +4.6% | 56.8 | +0.7% | strong-up | 🟠 EM ETF confirming rotation, near ATH (-1.9%) |
| FXI | $35.05 | -1.2% | -4.7% | -5.0% | 36.0 ↓ | -3.9% | strong-down | 🔴 China in breakdown — death cross, -4.7% 30D, -16.6% from ATH |
| EWJ | $92.96 | +1.4% | +4.3% | +3.1% | 61.3 | +1.7% | strong-up | 🟠 Japan solid — near ATH (-1.4%), yen risk manageable |
Bonds
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $85.76 | +1.7% | +0.5% | -3.6% | 54.8 | +1.0% | weak-up | 🟡 Long bonds getting a small bid — death cross still in, -7% from ATH |
| IEF | $94.65 | +0.9% | -0.02% | -1.9% | 53.8 | +0.4% | weak-up | 🟡 Intermediate bonds flatline, death cross |
| HYG | $80.31 | +0.4% | +0.4% | +1.0% | 59.5 | +0.5% | strong-up | 🟠 High yield steady — credit healthy, no stress signal |
| LQD | $109.36 | +1.0% | +0.9% | -0.6% | 58.4 | +0.8% | up | 🟡 IG credit stable, death cross in |
| BND | $73.46 | +0.7% | +0.3% | -0.9% | 55.9 | +0.4% | strong-up | 🟡 Broad bonds quiet — no fear trade, no rally |
Commodities
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $417.12 | -0.03% | -1.5% | -14.9% | 44.6 ↓ | -1.0% | weak-down | 🔴 Gold deepening breakdown — -18.2% from ATH, below SMA20+SMA50, RSI 44 |
| SLV | $68.33 | +0.4% | +2.5% | -16.2% | 46.3 | -3.3% | weak-down | 🟡 Silver bouncing 7D but -16.2% 3M damage intact |
| USO | $129.09 | -8.2% | -12.2% | +48.1% | 42.3 | -8.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Oil pulling back hard — -12.2% 30D after parabolic 3M; below SMA20+SMA50 |
| COPX | $88.14 | +7.5% | +10.7% | -5.8% | 56.8 | +4.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Copper miners rebounding 7D+30D — +7.5% 7D pop, golden cross |
| UNG | $11.93 | +7.1% | +12.6% | -0.6% | 61.2 | +7.1% | weak-up | 🟡 Nat gas bouncing short-term — death cross, -34.2% from ATH, structural decline |
Volatility
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $23.29 | -6.5% | -14.4% | -17.5% | 27.5 ↓ | -11.2% | strong-down | 🟢 VIX proxy at RSI 28 — extreme complacency, -57.4% from ATH |
| VXX | $24.14 | -6.4% | -14.4% | -17.5% | 27.7 ↓ | -11.2% | strong-down | 🟢 Vol crushed — full resolution priced, -56.9% from ATH |
Factors
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $89.60 | +1.8% | +7.7% | +16.4% | 74.7 ↑ | +3.1% | strong-up | 🟠 Growth RSI 75 — near ATH (-0.3%), AI stocks define factor |
| VTV | $211.85 | +0.5% | +2.5% | +3.0% | 67.2 | +1.6% | strong-up | 🟠 Value solid — near ATH (-0.5%), golden cross |
| MTUM | $315.81 | +3.6% | +11.2% | +24.6% | 71.3 ↑ | +4.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Momentum RSI 71, +24.6% 3M — AI/tech trend-following dominant |
| QUAL | $215.49 | +0.8% | +4.0% | +5.6% | 68.2 | +1.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Quality healthy — near ATH (-0.4%), earnings quality rewarded |
| RSP | $208.83 | +1.0% | +2.7% | +2.5% | 67.9 | +2.2% | strong-up | 🟠 Equal weight near ATH (-0.2%) — breadth is real |
Additional Benchmarks
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $598.93 | +3.9% | +18.2% | +47.4% | 70.8 ↑ | +6.6% | strong-up | 🟠 Semis RSI 71, +47.4% 3M — AI compute arms race, -2.2% from ATH |
| XBI | $136.69 | +2.3% | +4.1% | +8.0% | 58.4 | +2.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Biotech near ATH (-1.8%), quiet strength |
Housing
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $102.63 | +3.6% | -3.2% | -9.0% | 51.9 | +1.7% | weak-up | 🟡 Homebuilder products bouncing 7D but death cross, -9% 3M, -16.7% from ATH |
| ITB | $93.06 | +3.5% | -3.4% | -11.2% | 51.7 | +2.0% | weak-up | 🟡 Homebuilders distressed — death cross, -22.9% from ATH, rate sensitivity |
Sector Rotation Table
| Group | 30D% Leader | 30D% Laggard | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyclicals | XLB -0.6% | XLI -0.8% | Both cyclicals flat/negative 30D — no infra bid |
| Defensives | XLV +2.4% | XLU -5.2%, XLP -1.7% | Defensive abandoned; healthcare only relative winner |
| Tech | XLK +19.8%, SMH +18.2% | XLC -0.7% | Hardware/chips dominate; comm services flat |
| Style | MTUM +11.2%, VUG +7.7% | VTV +2.5% | Growth + momentum defining cycle; value lagging |
| Geo | EEM +7.2%, EWJ +4.3% | FXI -4.7% | EM ex-China winning; China breakdown deepens |
| Commodities | COPX +10.7%, UNG +12.6% | USO -12.2%, GLD -1.5% | Copper/gas bounce; oil/gold rolling — bifurcation |
Tier Analysis
Overbought / Extreme (RSI 70+)
- QQQ (RSI 77.1) — tech at near-ATH, don't chase
- SPY/VTI (RSI 73-74) — broad market extended
- XLK (RSI 79.8) — sector extreme, +37% 3M
- VUG (RSI 74.7) — growth factor at cycle high
- MTUM (RSI 71.3) — momentum self-reinforcing
- SMH (RSI 70.8) — semis near cycle extreme
- VIXY/VXX (RSI 27-28) — vol at capitulation floor (inverse: complacency extreme)
Approaching Overbought (RSI 65-70)
Neutral (RSI 45-65)
Approaching Oversold / Oversold (RSI < 45)
- XLE (RSI 41.2, -3.3% vs SMA20) — energy rolling off; USO rollover transmitted to producers
- XLU (RSI 41.3, -1.4% vs SMA20) — utilities weak; data-center power thesis not pricing here
- XLP (RSI 42.6) — staples abandoned
- GLD (RSI 44.6) — gold breakdown deepening
- FXI (RSI 36.0) — China approaching deep oversold; death cross + tariff
Entry Zones
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $417.12 | $410-420 | 44.6 ↓ | -1.5% | 📈 Accumulate | -18.2% from ATH, below SMA20+SMA50, -14.9% 3M. Contrarian vs equity complacency. If stress isn't gone, this is the buy. |
| XLE | $56.29 | $54-57 | 41.2 ↓ | -5.6% | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 41, -3.3% below SMA20. USO +48% 3M — producers lagging commodity. Catch-up trade or oil topping. |
| FXI | $35.05 | — | 36.0 ↓ | -4.7% | 🔍 Watch | Strong-down, death cross, tariff risk. Wait for reversal signal before entry. |
| TLT | $85.76 | $83-87 | 54.8 | +0.5% | ⏳ Waiting | Getting a small bid (+1.7% 7D). Death cross limits conviction. Tail-risk hedge at ~$88-90. |
| XHB | $102.63 | $98-103 | 51.9 | -3.2% | 🔍 Watch | Death cross, -9% 3M, -16.7% from ATH. Rate sensitivity real. Wait for data. |
| ITB | $93.06 | — | 51.7 | -3.4% | ❌ Don't Buy | Worst housing vehicle here — -22.9% from ATH, death cross, rate headwind. |
| XLP | $82.91 | — | 42.6 | -1.7% | ❌ Don't Buy | Defensives dead. No defensive rotation in this tape. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 80, +19.8% 30D — extreme overbought, don't chase |
| QQQ | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 77 — core position, don't add at ATH |
| SMH | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 71, +47.4% 3M — ride with trailing stop |
| MTUM | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 71, +24.6% 3M — momentum factor dominant |
| SPY/VTI | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 73+ — index core, hold, don't add at these levels |
| EEM | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 64, +7.2% 30D — EM stealth winner, dollar weakness |
| GLD | 🔴 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 44, -18.2% from ATH — contrarian vs complacency |
| XLE | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 41, oversold — catch-up to USO or oil peak confirmation |
| COPX | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 57, +7.5% 7D pop — copper miners recovering |
| TLT | 🟡 | ⏳ Waiting | Death cross limits conviction; watch for rate catalyst |
| FXI | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Strong-down — need reversal signal |
| XLP | 🟡 | ❌ Don't Buy | Defensive trade dead |
| ITB/XHB | 🟡 | ❌ Don't Buy | Housing distress — rate sensitivity + death cross |
| VIXY/VXX | 🟢 | ⚠️ Avoid | Don't buy falling vol; complacency floor may be near |
Cross-Group Analysis
What the macro dashboard is telling us on 2026-05-29:
The AI supercycle is now pricing in everything. QQQ +21.6% 3M, XLK +37.1% 3M, SMH +47.4% 3M. These are not bounces — this is a regime. RSI readings of 77-80 across tech + momentum factor signal a trend in full force, not a top per se, but risk/reward on new longs is historically poor.
Breadth is confirming, but narrowly. RSP near ATH (RSI 68, -0.2% from high), IWM RSI 64 (-0.9% from ATH), VTV RSI 67. Equal-weight is participating — this is not a 2-stock rally. But the gap between XLK (+37.1% 3M) and everything else (most sectors flat to negative 3M) is the widest in years.
Gold has broken down and is accelerating. GLD -14.9% 3M, -18.2% from ATH, RSI 44, below SMA20 and SMA50. This is the most important macro signal on the dashboard. Either global stress is genuinely absent (equities right) or gold is the screaming contrarian buy (gold right). This divergence cannot persist indefinitely.
Oil rolled over hard. USO -12.2% 30D, -8.2% 7D, RSI 42, below both SMA20 and SMA50. After a parabolic +48% 3M run, oil is correcting. XLE RSI 41 follows the commodity lower. The geopolitical premium is being priced out rapidly.
Volatility is at a multi-year floor. VIXY and VXX at RSI 27-28, -57% from ATH. This is the textbook complacency signal. When vol is this compressed, mean reversion can be violent. The complacency trade is running on fumes.
Defensives are completely dead. XLU -5.2% 30D, XLP -1.7% 30D, XLV +2.4% 30D (the only relative winner). No defensive rotation whatsoever — pure risk-on posture. This is consistent with the vol collapse.
EM ex-China is the stealth winner again. EEM +7.2% 30D vs FXI -4.7% 30D. Dollar weakness + commodity cycle lift benefiting EM ex-China. China is in its own bear market (RSI 36, strong-down trend).
Housing is distressed from rates. ITB -22.9% from ATH, XHB -16.7% from ATH, both with death crosses and -9-11% 3M. The 30-year mortgage rate burden is visible here.
Bonds are not a fear trade. TLT flat-to-slightly-positive 7D but death cross intact, -7% from ATH. Not signaling stress OR recovery — pure limbo. The equity market ignores bonds entirely.
What Changed vs 2026-04-28
Directional changes since the last major pulse:
- Tech/momentum extended significantly — XLK moved from +5.1% 30D to +19.8% 30D; SMH from +12.5% to +18.2% 30D (and +47.4% 3M); QQQ from +6.3% to +10.6% 30D. The AI supercycle accelerated.
- Gold deteriorated further — GLD 3M went from -14.9% to -14.9% (stable at the trough) but the RSI improved slightly from 40.4 to 44.6 — no new leg down but no recovery either. Still -18.2% from ATH vs -17.2% prior.
- USO reversed sharply — from +8.2% 30D to -12.2% 30D. Oil rolled hard. The geopolitical premium is being unwound.
- EEM continued its outperformance — from +15.1% to +7.2% 30D (slowing 30D as the initial bounce normalizes), but 3M is +11.5% confirming sustained EM rotation.
- Vol crushed further — VXX went from RSI 39 to RSI 28. Complacency deepened.
- FXI deteriorated — RSI moved from 45 to 36, now approaching deep oversold.
- COPX reversed — from -4.2% 7D (weak) to +7.5% 7D; copper miners recovering.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| GLD -18.2% from ATH, RSI 44, below SMA20+SMA50 | Deepest gold breakdown in this cycle — either complacency is correct or this is the contrarian trade of the year |
| XLK +37% 3M, RSI 80 | Tech sector at extreme extension — the AI supercycle is real but risk/reward deteriorating |
| USO -12.2% 30D reversal after +48% 3M | Oil premium fully unwinding — geopolitical risk-off resolving OR oil topping |
| VIXY/VXX RSI 27-28, -57% from ATH | Historic complacency floor — vol mean reversion risk is highest since 2021 |
| EEM +11.5% 3M vs FXI -5% 3M | EM ex-China structural divergence — dollar weakness trade intact |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing XLK at RSI 80 | Extreme RSI in strong trend can persist — but this is where new long risk/reward is worst |
| Buying VXX in falling vol regime | Don't buy falling vol products; wait for reversal signal before hedging |
| Treating USO +48% 3M as permanent | Commodity moves mean-revert; the -12% 30D correction was visible in RSI and SMA divergence |
Open Questions
- Is GLD breakdown a permanent geopolitical premium unwind or the contrarian buy of the cycle?
- Can XLK/SMH hold RSI 70-80 into summer or will a catalyst force mean reversion?
- When does the vol floor break? VIXY at RSI 28 is historically unsustainable.
- Is the FXI oversold setup (RSI 36, death cross) a contrarian opportunity or China structural bear?
- Will oil's -12.2% 30D correction drag XLE further or has the catch-up trade been killed?
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jun 16 ScanMarket Pulse Jun 20 ScanMarket Pulse — 2026 06 20 (Macro Dashboard) Jun 25 ScanMarket Pulse — Macro Dashboard, June 25, 2026 Jun 26 ScanMarket Pulse — EOW Macro Dashboard Apr 26 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 28 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Jul 7 ScanMarket Pulse — Macro Dashboard Jul 11 ScanMarket Pulse — Macro Dashboard Apr 13 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Jul 17 ScanMarket Pulse — Macro Dashboard No direct external sources are attached to this read.