Data as-of 2026-07-10 close (QUAL lags one day at 07-09). The broad tape is unchanged in character — SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/VTI/RSP are all still green with no death crosses — but the two most overbought pockets from two weeks ago have genuinely cooled: XLF (RSI 76→66) and XBI (RSI 77→66) both de-risked without giving back much price. The real news is on the bond side: TLT and IEF have flipped to a death-crossed "strong-down" trend (RSI 40 and 45) after being the strongest part of the board two weeks ago — a real regime change, not noise, while high-yield credit (HYG) stays healthy. Energy is showing its first real signs of life (XLE RSI 37→50, USO RSI 31→40) even as silver keeps deteriorating (-50.9% off its high, still in collapse).

FROTH READ: pricePctVsVwap = how far current price sits above/below the volume-weighted average buyer across the full history. Names >50% above VWAP are parabolic; names below VWAP have traded back through their entire average-buyer cost basis.

The index-level story hasn't changed: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI, and RSP are all still in confirmed uptrends with no death crosses, and equal-weight RSP (-0.96% from its 52-week high) confirms this is still broad participation, not a narrow rally. DIA has cooled off its exact-high print from two weeks ago (RSI 71.6→62.0, now -1.27% from its high) but stays in "breakout" regime — a pause, not a reversal.

The two most overbought names on the last pulse have genuinely worked off their extremes rather than cracking. XLF fell from RSI 76.4 to 66.2 while staying within 1.6% of its 52-week high — real digestion with no price damage. XBI cooled from RSI 77.0 (a near-ATH melt-up) to 65.5, still up 19.9% over 30 days but no longer flashing the most-overbought reading on the board.

The most important new signal is in bonds: TLT and IEF have both death-crossed into a "strong-down" trend (RSI 39.9 and 45.0) — a real reversal from two weeks ago, when the whole bond complex was "strong-up"/"up" at RSI 47-66. High yield (HYG) is unaffected — still strong-up at RSI 55.7 — so this reads as duration/rates selling off rather than a credit-quality scare, consistent with equities continuing to grind to highs rather than a flight-to-safety move.

Commodities remain split. Energy is showing real signs of life: XLE's RSI moved from 37.0 to 50.3 (+3.01% on the week, gap to its high narrowing from -16.3% to -13.2%), and USO eased off its oversold extreme (RSI 30.5→40.1, 30-day drawdown improving from -22.8% to -15.6%). Precious metals went the other way — SLV is now -50.9% off its 52-week high (worse than -48.9% two weeks ago) and still in "collapse" regime, the single worst chart on the dashboard. FXI (China) bounced meaningfully (RSI 38.8→50.5, gap to its high narrowing from -22.6% to -20.3%) but remains death-crossed and structurally the weakest international name.

1. Bond curve turned bearish: TLT/IEF now death-crossed and "strong-down" (RSI 39.9/45.0) versus "strong-up"/"up" at RSI 47-66 two weeks ago — the clearest regime change on the whole board. LQD/BND also weakened (RSI 37.9/44.4) though not yet death-crossed.
2. XLF and XBI cooled without breaking down: XLF RSI 76.4→66.2 (still -1.56% from its 52wk high); XBI RSI 77.0→65.5 (still +19.9% 30D, -4.03% from its high). Real de-risking, not a top.
3. Energy showed its first real life in weeks: XLE RSI 37.0→50.3 (+3.01% 7D, gap to high narrowed to -13.2%); USO RSI 30.5→40.1 (30D drawdown eased from -22.8% to -15.6%).
4. FXI bounced off its capitulation-adjacent low: RSI 38.8→50.5, gap to high narrowed from -22.6% to -20.3% — still death-crossed, still the weakest international link, but stabilizing.
5. SLV kept deteriorating: -48.9%→-50.9% off its 52-week high, still in "collapse" regime — worse than two weeks ago and the worst chart on the dashboard.
6. Vol stayed structurally dead: VIXY/VXX both still in "collapse" regime (RSI 34.3/34.7) — unchanged risk-on backdrop, no one paying up for protection.
7. Broad indices unchanged in character: SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/VTI/RSP all still green, no death crosses — same broad leadership story, just quieter than two weeks ago.

RSI < 30 = capitulation/oversold zone (context-dependent — check trend and death-cross flags before treating as a buy signal). RSI 30-50 = neutral-to-recovering. RSI 50-70 = healthy uptrend. RSI > 70 = overbought/extended. "vs VWAP" shows distance from the average buyer's cost basis across the instrument's full history — a rough measure of how "paid up" the current price is. A death cross (50-day average below the 200-day) flags a structurally damaged trend even when short-term RSI looks fine.

Read: RSP (equal-weight) sitting at -0.96% from its own 52-week high confirms broad participation, not five megacaps carrying the tape. No death crosses anywhere in this group.

Read: XLF and XLV remain the strongest sectors, both near 52-week highs with RSI now in a healthier 60s range instead of the high-70s extremes from two weeks ago. XLC is still death-crossed and -7.3% off its high despite a 2-week bounce — structurally the weakest sector even with the relief rally. XLE is the standout mover: RSI 37→50 and its first positive week (+3.01%) in a while, narrowing the gap to its high from -16.3% to -13.2%.

Read: EFA remains one of the steadiest names on the board (-1.52% from its high). FXI is the notable mover — a real bounce (RSI 38.8→50.5, gap to high narrowing) but still death-crossed and -20.3% off its high, not yet investable.

Read: This is the biggest structural change on the whole board. TLT and IEF have flipped from "strong-up"/"up" (RSI 47-66 two weeks ago) to death-crossed "strong-down" (RSI 39.9/45.0) — real deterioration in long-duration Treasuries. HYG is untouched (still strong-up, RSI 55.7), so this reads as a rates move, not a credit-stress signal.

Read: SLV deepened further — now more than half off its 52-week high and still in "collapse" regime. USO is the actionable name in this group: RSI back to 40.1 after 30.5 two weeks ago, drawdown easing from -22.8% to -15.6% over 30 days.

Read: Vol stayed structurally dead — both products remain in "collapse" regime, roughly a third below their own VWAP, confirming the risk-on backdrop but also flagging complacency: no one is paying up for protection anywhere on this tape.

Read: Value and Quality remain the leaders, both within 1.5% of 52-week highs. Momentum is still the most extended factor on a vs-VWAP basis but has cooled its RSI to a neutral 50.4.

Read: XBI has genuinely cooled from RSI 77.0 (most overbought name on the last pulse) to 65.5, still up 19.9% over 30 days but no longer in melt-up territory. SMH remains structurally extended (+46.1% vs VWAP) but digesting rather than adding to the move.

None on this board.

LQD (37.9), SLV (38.9), UNG (36.2), VIXY (34.3), VXX (34.7). All structurally weak or vol products — none of these are constructive dip-buys; LQD/UNG/SLV are in confirmed downtrends and the vol products are oversold by design in a risk-on tape.

Everything else — the broad indices, all 11 sector ETFs, all international ETFs, all factor ETFs, and the industry dashboards. This is still, overwhelmingly, a healthy-tape reading.

• Whether TLT/IEF's death cross is the start of a real rates repricing or a short-lived wobble — HYG staying strong-up is the tell that credit isn't panicking yet.
• Whether XLE/USO's bounce off oversold extends into a real trend change or fades back into the multi-month energy laggard pattern.
• Whether XLF/XBI's cooldown resolves into fresh strength (buyable) or rolls into a deeper pullback now that the RSI cushion is gone.
• SLV's continued deterioration — a -50.9% drawdown with no stabilizing signal yet.