Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
Data as-of 2026-07-06 close. Broad indices are healthy and broadening: DIA sits exactly at its 52-week high in a confirmed breakout, EFA (developed international) is -0.45% from its own high, and Financials/Healthcare/Industrials are all within ~1% of 52-week highs alongside it — this is sector-wide leadership, not a one-name story. The stress points are two extreme-overbought pockets (XBI RSI 77 near an ATH, XLF RSI 76.4) and a commodity complex that's diverging hard from equities: oil is nearing oversold after a -22.8% month and silver is -48.9% off its high while stocks push to new ones.
FROTH READ: pricePctVsVwap = how far current price sits above/below the volume-weighted average buyer across the full history. Names >50% above VWAP are parabolic; names below VWAP have traded back through their entire average-buyer cost basis.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Broad, healthy uptrend — DIA/XLF/XLV/XLI/EFA/VTV all within ~1% of 52-week highs, no death crosses among core index ETFs |
| Key insight | Leadership has broadened past megacap tech into value/quality/international — QQQ has stalled (7D +0.13%) after its +22.9% 3M run while DIA/RSP/EFA push to fresh highs |
| Froth alert | SMH still +46.2% above its VWAP; XBI at RSI 77 just -0.46% from a 52-week high — the two most overbought names on the board |
| Divergence to watch | Equities near highs while commodities break down: USO RSI 30.5 (-22.8% 30D), SLV -48.9% from its 52-week high |
Broad Indices
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.28 | 58.7 | +1.5% | +1.19% | +1.89% | +14.26% | +11.6% | -1.2% | strong-up | 🟢 Uptrend |
| QQQ | $722.82 | 52.1 | +0.4% | +0.13% | +1.05% | +22.94% | +17.21% | -3.45% | strong-up | 🟡 Consolidating after huge 3M run |
| DIA | $530.09 | 71.6 | +2.7% | +1.18% | +4.45% | +14.2% | +11.82% | 0.0% | strong-up | 🟢 Fresh 52wk high — breakout leader |
| IWM | $298.90 | 60.5 | +1.9% | +0.13% | +5.45% | +18.47% | +19.36% | -1.26% | strong-up | 🟢 Leader, near high |
| VTI | $371.67 | 59.9 | +1.6% | +1.14% | +2.27% | +14.54% | +11.56% | -0.81% | strong-up | 🟢 Steady |
| RSP | $215.00 | 66.6 | +2.2% | +1.01% | +3.96% | +11.55% | +11.64% | -0.28% | strong-up | 🟢 Breadth confirmed, near high |
Read: DIA is the cleanest leadership signal on the whole dashboard — literally at its 52-week high in a breakout regime. RSP (equal-weight) at -0.28% from its own high confirms this is broad participation, not five megacaps carrying the tape. QQQ has stalled (7D +0.13%, 30D +1.05%) after a +22.9% three-month run — digestion, not breakdown.
Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL ETFs)
| Sector | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF (Financials) | $56.14 | 76.4 ↑ | +3.04% | +8.4% | +8.04% | -0.67% | strong-up | 🟠 Overbought leader, near high |
| XLV (Health) | $161.96 | 67.5 | +2.01% | +6.57% | +11.17% | -1.15% | strong-up | 🟢 Breakout, near high |
| XLI (Industrial) | $185.56 | 63.5 | +0.73% | +7.14% | +15.62% | -0.47% | strong-up | 🟢 Breakout, near high |
| XLB (Materials) | $51.98 | 55.9 | +2.32% | +4.44% | +9.87% | -3.99% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| XLY (Cons Discret) | $118.01 | 55.0 | +0.05% | +2.47% | +1.84% | -5.6% | strong-up | 🔍 Neutral |
| XLU (Utilities) | $45.30 | 53.3 | -0.35% | +4.76% | +4.0% | -5.23% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| XLP (Staples) | $84.10 | 52.0 | +0.33% | +1.94% | +4.26% | -6.7% | strong-up | 🔍 Neutral |
| XLRE (Real Estate) | $44.29 | 50.9 | -0.31% | +1.47% | +7.35% | -2.98% | strong-up | 🔍 Neutral |
| XLK (Tech) | $183.57 | 50.5 | -0.32% | -0.21% | +26.0% | -7.63% | strong-up | 🟡 Flat, digesting |
| XLC (Comm Svcs) | $110.21 | 50.0 | +1.23% | -0.53% | -2.54% | -8.47% | strong-down | 🟡 Bounced off RSI 30 but still death-crossed |
| XLE (Energy) | $53.13 | 37.0 | -1.26% | -8.25% | +5.5% | -16.28% | weak-down | 🔴 Laggard |
Read: Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials are all within ~1% of 52-week highs — this is genuine sector-wide leadership. XLF at RSI 76.4 is the most overbought sector on the board. XLC has recovered from an RSI 30.2 capitulation print two weeks ago to a neutral RSI 50, but it's still carrying a death cross and a "strong-down" trend label underneath the bounce — structurally still the weakest sector even after the relief rally. Energy (XLE) remains the clear laggard: RSI 37, -16.3% off its high, still in pullback.
International
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA (Dev Int'l) | $105.46 | 61.0 | +1.64% | +4.13% | +10.48% | -0.45% | strong-up | 🟢 Near high, breakout |
| EWJ (Japan) | $95.27 | 60.2 | +0.86% | +4.18% | +14.46% | -2.31% | strong-up | 🟢 Leader |
| VWO (Emg Mkts) | $60.07 | 54.7 | +0.54% | +3.11% | +9.84% | -2.36% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| EEM (Emg Mkts) | $67.57 | 51.3 | -1.25% | +3.3% | +17.91% | -5.59% | strong-up | 🔍 Neutral |
| FXI (China) | $32.49 | 38.8 | +0.44% | -5.61% | -13.44% | -22.64% | strong-down | 🔴 Still death-crossed, weakest link |
Read: EFA is quietly one of the strongest names on the entire dashboard — just -0.45% from a 52-week high in a breakout regime. FXI remains the outlier: still -22.6% off its high and death-crossed, even after bouncing off its RSI 23 capitulation low from two weeks ago.
Bonds
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG (High Yield) | $79.87 | 59.9 | -0.21% | +0.88% | +1.99% | strong-up | 🔒 Steady |
| BND (Total Bond) | $73.14 | 52.0 | -0.77% | +0.79% | +0.63% | strong-up | 🔒 Steady |
| LQD (Inv Grade Corp) | $108.67 | 51.5 | -0.88% | +0.92% | +0.68% | up | 🔍 Neutral |
| IEF (7-10yr Tsy) | $94.18 | 51.7 | -0.91% | +1.04% | -0.06% | weak-up | 🔍 Neutral |
| TLT (20yr Tsy) | $85.45 | 47.1 | -2.17% | +1.35% | -0.52% | weak-up | 🔍 Neutral |
Read: The bond bid has cooled versus two weeks ago (TLT/IEF were RSI 61-66 in the last pulse, now 47-52) — a more neutral rates backdrop, consistent with equities pushing to highs rather than a flight-to-quality trade.
Commodities
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNG (Nat Gas) | $11.71 | 52.9 | +0.87% | +2.99% | -7.79% | -31.24% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch (death cross) |
| COPX (Copper) | $78.48 | 45.6 | +2.08% | -3.12% | +3.74% | -21.51% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| GLD (Gold) | $382.13 | 45.4 | +2.38% | -3.81% | -3.93% | -25.03% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch (death cross, no-view thesis) |
| SLV (Silver) | $56.11 | 41.7 | +4.72% | -8.88% | -15.43% | -48.91% | down | ⚠️ Broken — nearly half off its high |
| USO (Oil) | $104.35 | 30.5 ↓ | -2.75% | -22.79% | -1.09% | -32.28% | weak-down | 🔍 Approaching oversold |
Read: Commodities remain broadly broken while equities push to highs — a genuine divergence worth tracking. SLV is -48.9% off its 52-week high. Oil is the most actionable of the group: RSI 30.5 after a -22.8% month, sitting almost exactly at its VWAP — the only commodity with a plausible near-term floor.
Volatility
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | Regime | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $20.65 | 33.2 | -4.1% | -13.63% | -39.01% | -32.81% | collapse | 🟢 Vol crushed = risk-on |
| VXX | $21.49 | 34.2 | -4.0% | -13.21% | -38.64% | -32.51% | collapse | 🟢 Vol crushed = risk-on |
Read: Vol remains structurally dead — both vol products are down ~39% over three months and a third below their own VWAP. Confirms the risk-on backdrop implied by indices sitting near highs, but also flags complacency: no one is paying up for protection anywhere on this tape.
Factor Rotation
| Factor | Price | RSI | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTV (Value) | $219.44 | 65.6 | +3.74% | +11.61% | +13.94% | -1.22% | 🟢 Near high |
| QUAL (Quality) | $218.49 | 61.0 | +2.36% | +13.18% | +10.22% | -0.79% | 🟢 Near high |
| VUG (Growth) | $86.68 | 54.9 | +0.66% | +17.02% | +8.85% | -4.33% | 🟢 Sharp snap-back |
| MTUM (Momentum) | $321.71 | 50.0 | +2.22% | +29.2% | +20.02% | -6.91% | 🟠 Most extended factor |
Read: Value and Quality are both within ~1% of 52-week highs — the "boring" factors are leading. Growth has snapped back hard, from RSI 39 in the last pulse to RSI 54.9 now. Momentum remains the most extended factor (+20% vs VWAP) after its AI/semis-driven three-month run.
Industry Dashboards
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI (Biotech) | $160.81 | 77.0 ↑ | +2.62% | +25.34% | +24.93% | +38.62% | -0.46% | strong-up (breakout) | 🔴 Most overbought name on the board |
| ITB (Home Const.) | $101.31 | 57.3 | -0.64% | +9.64% | +14.22% | +0.43% | -14.14% | pullback (death cross) | 🔍 Watch |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | $111.29 | 55.6 | -1.51% | +7.9% | +14.92% | +3.3% | -9.62% | up (death cross) | 🔍 Watch |
| SMH (Semis) | $604.30 | 49.4 | -2.8% | +1.03% | +51.11% | +46.24% | -10.05% | strong-up | 🟠 Structurally extended, digesting |
Read: XBI is the single most overbought name on this entire dashboard — RSI 77, +25.3% in 30 days, sitting just -0.46% from a 52-week high in a confirmed breakout. This is a genuine melt-up; the risk is a sharp reversal given how compressed the move has been. SMH remains structurally extended (+46% vs VWAP) but its RSI has cooled to 49.4 — digesting the three-month run rather than adding to it.
What the Tape Says
Bull case:
- DIA, XLF, XLV, XLI, EFA, VTV, QUAL all sitting within ~1% of 52-week highs — broad, multi-sector leadership
- No death crosses among core broad-index ETFs (SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/VTI/RSP)
- Vol structurally collapsed (VIXY/VXX -39% 3M) — no fear being priced anywhere
- Growth (VUG) snapping back sharply after a two-week oversold dip
Bear case:
- Two extreme-overbought pockets: XBI (RSI 77, near ATH) and XLF (RSI 76.4) — both vulnerable to a sharp digestion
- Commodities diverging hard from equities: SLV -48.9% off its high, USO nearing oversold after -22.8% in a month
- XLC still death-crossed and -8.5% off its high despite the RSI bounce — the underlying tech-adjacent trend hasn't actually repaired
- FXI/China remains structurally broken (-22.6% off high, death cross)
Net read: This is a broadening, healthy bull tape at the index level — the leadership has genuinely rotated into value/quality/international rather than staying concentrated in megacap tech, and QQQ's stall looks like digestion, not a top. The two things worth actually watching are the XBI/XLF overbought extremes (both could give back gains fast) and the commodity/equity divergence, which is either a benign supply-side rebalancing or an early demand-slowdown tell.
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIA, RSP, EFA | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | At/near 52-week highs, breakout regime, no death cross |
| XLF | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold (trim if extended) | RSI 76.4, near high — best sector but overbought |
| XBI | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid / Trim | RSI 77, +38.6% vs VWAP — most overbought name on the board |
| SMH | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid / Trim | +46.2% vs VWAP — structurally parabolic even as RSI cools |
| VUG | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | Sharp RSI recovery (39 → 55), still room before overbought |
| USO | 🔍 | ⏳ Watch | RSI 30.5, at VWAP — closest thing to a floor in commodities |
| SLV, GLD | ❌ | ❌ Avoid | -48.9% / -25.0% off highs, both death-crossed or no-view |
| FXI | 🔍 | 🔍 Research | Still -22.6% off high and death-crossed despite the bounce |
| XLC | 🔍 | 🔍 Watch | RSI recovered to 50 but trend/death-cross still say broken |
| XLE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 37, -16.3% off high, weakest sector |
What's Different vs the 2026-06-26 EOW Pulse
- Leadership flipped from rotation-story to broad-strength story: two weeks ago SPY/QQQ were rolling (-1.8%/-3.3% 7D) while DIA/IWM/RSP caught the bid; now SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/RSP/VTI are all green together — the earlier bifurcation has resolved into synchronized strength.
- XLC bounced hard but didn't repair: RSI 30.2 (near-capitulation) → RSI 50.0, but it's still death-crossed and -8.5% off its high, same "strong-down" trend label as before.
- FXI still the standout China laggard: RSI 23.4 → 38.8, a real bounce off capitulation, but still -22.6% off its high and death-crossed — not investable yet.
- Bond bid faded: TLT/IEF/LQD were RSI 61-66 (real flight-to-quality signal) two weeks ago; now RSI 47-52 — a much more neutral rates backdrop.
- Growth snapped back: VUG RSI 39.1 → 54.9, the sharpest factor move on the board.
- XBI kept ripping: RSI 76.2 → 77.0, another +2.6% week on top of an already-extreme move — now the most overbought single name on the whole dashboard.
- Vol stayed dead: VIXY/VXX both still in "collapse" regime, -39% over 3 months, unchanged risk-on backdrop.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.