Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

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Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 56 rows · screens, not recommendations

Data as-of 2026-07-06 close. Broad indices are healthy and broadening: DIA sits exactly at its 52-week high in a confirmed breakout, EFA (developed international) is -0.45% from its own high, and Financials/Healthcare/Industrials are all within ~1% of 52-week highs alongside it — this is sector-wide leadership, not a one-name story. The stress points are two extreme-overbought pockets (XBI RSI 77 near an ATH, XLF RSI 76.4) and a commodity complex that's diverging hard from equities: oil is nearing oversold after a -22.8% month and silver is -48.9% off its high while stocks push to new ones.

FROTH READ: pricePctVsVwap = how far current price sits above/below the volume-weighted average buyer across the full history. Names >50% above VWAP are parabolic; names below VWAP have traded back through their entire average-buyer cost basis.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 Broad, healthy uptrend — DIA/XLF/XLV/XLI/EFA/VTV all within ~1% of 52-week highs, no death crosses among core index ETFs
Key insight Leadership has broadened past megacap tech into value/quality/international — QQQ has stalled (7D +0.13%) after its +22.9% 3M run while DIA/RSP/EFA push to fresh highs
Froth alert SMH still +46.2% above its VWAP; XBI at RSI 77 just -0.46% from a 52-week high — the two most overbought names on the board
Divergence to watch Equities near highs while commodities break down: USO RSI 30.5 (-22.8% 30D), SLV -48.9% from its 52-week high

Broad Indices

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Trend Signal
SPY $751.28 58.7 +1.5% +1.19% +1.89% +14.26% +11.6% -1.2% strong-up 🟢 Uptrend
QQQ $722.82 52.1 +0.4% +0.13% +1.05% +22.94% +17.21% -3.45% strong-up 🟡 Consolidating after huge 3M run
DIA $530.09 71.6 +2.7% +1.18% +4.45% +14.2% +11.82% 0.0% strong-up 🟢 Fresh 52wk high — breakout leader
IWM $298.90 60.5 +1.9% +0.13% +5.45% +18.47% +19.36% -1.26% strong-up 🟢 Leader, near high
VTI $371.67 59.9 +1.6% +1.14% +2.27% +14.54% +11.56% -0.81% strong-up 🟢 Steady
RSP $215.00 66.6 +2.2% +1.01% +3.96% +11.55% +11.64% -0.28% strong-up 🟢 Breadth confirmed, near high

Read: DIA is the cleanest leadership signal on the whole dashboard — literally at its 52-week high in a breakout regime. RSP (equal-weight) at -0.28% from its own high confirms this is broad participation, not five megacaps carrying the tape. QQQ has stalled (7D +0.13%, 30D +1.05%) after a +22.9% three-month run — digestion, not breakdown.


Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL ETFs)

Sector Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Trend Signal
XLF (Financials) $56.14 76.4 +3.04% +8.4% +8.04% -0.67% strong-up 🟠 Overbought leader, near high
XLV (Health) $161.96 67.5 +2.01% +6.57% +11.17% -1.15% strong-up 🟢 Breakout, near high
XLI (Industrial) $185.56 63.5 +0.73% +7.14% +15.62% -0.47% strong-up 🟢 Breakout, near high
XLB (Materials) $51.98 55.9 +2.32% +4.44% +9.87% -3.99% strong-up 🔒 Hold
XLY (Cons Discret) $118.01 55.0 +0.05% +2.47% +1.84% -5.6% strong-up 🔍 Neutral
XLU (Utilities) $45.30 53.3 -0.35% +4.76% +4.0% -5.23% strong-up 🔒 Hold
XLP (Staples) $84.10 52.0 +0.33% +1.94% +4.26% -6.7% strong-up 🔍 Neutral
XLRE (Real Estate) $44.29 50.9 -0.31% +1.47% +7.35% -2.98% strong-up 🔍 Neutral
XLK (Tech) $183.57 50.5 -0.32% -0.21% +26.0% -7.63% strong-up 🟡 Flat, digesting
XLC (Comm Svcs) $110.21 50.0 +1.23% -0.53% -2.54% -8.47% strong-down 🟡 Bounced off RSI 30 but still death-crossed
XLE (Energy) $53.13 37.0 -1.26% -8.25% +5.5% -16.28% weak-down 🔴 Laggard

Read: Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials are all within ~1% of 52-week highs — this is genuine sector-wide leadership. XLF at RSI 76.4 is the most overbought sector on the board. XLC has recovered from an RSI 30.2 capitulation print two weeks ago to a neutral RSI 50, but it's still carrying a death cross and a "strong-down" trend label underneath the bounce — structurally still the weakest sector even after the relief rally. Energy (XLE) remains the clear laggard: RSI 37, -16.3% off its high, still in pullback.


International

ETF Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Trend Signal
EFA (Dev Int'l) $105.46 61.0 +1.64% +4.13% +10.48% -0.45% strong-up 🟢 Near high, breakout
EWJ (Japan) $95.27 60.2 +0.86% +4.18% +14.46% -2.31% strong-up 🟢 Leader
VWO (Emg Mkts) $60.07 54.7 +0.54% +3.11% +9.84% -2.36% strong-up 🔒 Hold
EEM (Emg Mkts) $67.57 51.3 -1.25% +3.3% +17.91% -5.59% strong-up 🔍 Neutral
FXI (China) $32.49 38.8 +0.44% -5.61% -13.44% -22.64% strong-down 🔴 Still death-crossed, weakest link

Read: EFA is quietly one of the strongest names on the entire dashboard — just -0.45% from a 52-week high in a breakout regime. FXI remains the outlier: still -22.6% off its high and death-crossed, even after bouncing off its RSI 23 capitulation low from two weeks ago.


Bonds

ETF Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs VWAP Trend Signal
HYG (High Yield) $79.87 59.9 -0.21% +0.88% +1.99% strong-up 🔒 Steady
BND (Total Bond) $73.14 52.0 -0.77% +0.79% +0.63% strong-up 🔒 Steady
LQD (Inv Grade Corp) $108.67 51.5 -0.88% +0.92% +0.68% up 🔍 Neutral
IEF (7-10yr Tsy) $94.18 51.7 -0.91% +1.04% -0.06% weak-up 🔍 Neutral
TLT (20yr Tsy) $85.45 47.1 -2.17% +1.35% -0.52% weak-up 🔍 Neutral

Read: The bond bid has cooled versus two weeks ago (TLT/IEF were RSI 61-66 in the last pulse, now 47-52) — a more neutral rates backdrop, consistent with equities pushing to highs rather than a flight-to-quality trade.


Commodities

ETF Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Trend Signal
UNG (Nat Gas) $11.71 52.9 +0.87% +2.99% -7.79% -31.24% weak-up 🔍 Watch (death cross)
COPX (Copper) $78.48 45.6 +2.08% -3.12% +3.74% -21.51% weak-down 🔍 Watch
GLD (Gold) $382.13 45.4 +2.38% -3.81% -3.93% -25.03% strong-down 🔍 Watch (death cross, no-view thesis)
SLV (Silver) $56.11 41.7 +4.72% -8.88% -15.43% -48.91% down ⚠️ Broken — nearly half off its high
USO (Oil) $104.35 30.5 -2.75% -22.79% -1.09% -32.28% weak-down 🔍 Approaching oversold

Read: Commodities remain broadly broken while equities push to highs — a genuine divergence worth tracking. SLV is -48.9% off its 52-week high. Oil is the most actionable of the group: RSI 30.5 after a -22.8% month, sitting almost exactly at its VWAP — the only commodity with a plausible near-term floor.


Volatility

ETF Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% vs VWAP Regime Signal
VIXY $20.65 33.2 -4.1% -13.63% -39.01% -32.81% collapse 🟢 Vol crushed = risk-on
VXX $21.49 34.2 -4.0% -13.21% -38.64% -32.51% collapse 🟢 Vol crushed = risk-on

Read: Vol remains structurally dead — both vol products are down ~39% over three months and a third below their own VWAP. Confirms the risk-on backdrop implied by indices sitting near highs, but also flags complacency: no one is paying up for protection anywhere on this tape.


Factor Rotation

Factor Price RSI 30D% 3M% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Signal
VTV (Value) $219.44 65.6 +3.74% +11.61% +13.94% -1.22% 🟢 Near high
QUAL (Quality) $218.49 61.0 +2.36% +13.18% +10.22% -0.79% 🟢 Near high
VUG (Growth) $86.68 54.9 +0.66% +17.02% +8.85% -4.33% 🟢 Sharp snap-back
MTUM (Momentum) $321.71 50.0 +2.22% +29.2% +20.02% -6.91% 🟠 Most extended factor

Read: Value and Quality are both within ~1% of 52-week highs — the "boring" factors are leading. Growth has snapped back hard, from RSI 39 in the last pulse to RSI 54.9 now. Momentum remains the most extended factor (+20% vs VWAP) after its AI/semis-driven three-month run.


Industry Dashboards

ETF Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% vs VWAP 52wkHi% Trend Signal
XBI (Biotech) $160.81 77.0 +2.62% +25.34% +24.93% +38.62% -0.46% strong-up (breakout) 🔴 Most overbought name on the board
ITB (Home Const.) $101.31 57.3 -0.64% +9.64% +14.22% +0.43% -14.14% pullback (death cross) 🔍 Watch
XHB (Homebuilders) $111.29 55.6 -1.51% +7.9% +14.92% +3.3% -9.62% up (death cross) 🔍 Watch
SMH (Semis) $604.30 49.4 -2.8% +1.03% +51.11% +46.24% -10.05% strong-up 🟠 Structurally extended, digesting

Read: XBI is the single most overbought name on this entire dashboard — RSI 77, +25.3% in 30 days, sitting just -0.46% from a 52-week high in a confirmed breakout. This is a genuine melt-up; the risk is a sharp reversal given how compressed the move has been. SMH remains structurally extended (+46% vs VWAP) but its RSI has cooled to 49.4 — digesting the three-month run rather than adding to it.


What the Tape Says

Bull case:

  • DIA, XLF, XLV, XLI, EFA, VTV, QUAL all sitting within ~1% of 52-week highs — broad, multi-sector leadership
  • No death crosses among core broad-index ETFs (SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/VTI/RSP)
  • Vol structurally collapsed (VIXY/VXX -39% 3M) — no fear being priced anywhere
  • Growth (VUG) snapping back sharply after a two-week oversold dip

Bear case:

  • Two extreme-overbought pockets: XBI (RSI 77, near ATH) and XLF (RSI 76.4) — both vulnerable to a sharp digestion
  • Commodities diverging hard from equities: SLV -48.9% off its high, USO nearing oversold after -22.8% in a month
  • XLC still death-crossed and -8.5% off its high despite the RSI bounce — the underlying tech-adjacent trend hasn't actually repaired
  • FXI/China remains structurally broken (-22.6% off high, death cross)

Net read: This is a broadening, healthy bull tape at the index level — the leadership has genuinely rotated into value/quality/international rather than staying concentrated in megacap tech, and QQQ's stall looks like digestion, not a top. The two things worth actually watching are the XBI/XLF overbought extremes (both could give back gains fast) and the commodity/equity divergence, which is either a benign supply-side rebalancing or an early demand-slowdown tell.


Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
DIA, RSP, EFA 🟢 🔒 Hold At/near 52-week highs, breakout regime, no death cross
XLF 🟠 🔒 Hold (trim if extended) RSI 76.4, near high — best sector but overbought
XBI 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid / Trim RSI 77, +38.6% vs VWAP — most overbought name on the board
SMH 🟠 ⚠️ Avoid / Trim +46.2% vs VWAP — structurally parabolic even as RSI cools
VUG 🟢 📈 Accumulate Sharp RSI recovery (39 → 55), still room before overbought
USO 🔍 ⏳ Watch RSI 30.5, at VWAP — closest thing to a floor in commodities
SLV, GLD ❌ Avoid -48.9% / -25.0% off highs, both death-crossed or no-view
FXI 🔍 🔍 Research Still -22.6% off high and death-crossed despite the bounce
XLC 🔍 🔍 Watch RSI recovered to 50 but trend/death-cross still say broken
XLE 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 37, -16.3% off high, weakest sector

What's Different vs the 2026-06-26 EOW Pulse

  1. Leadership flipped from rotation-story to broad-strength story: two weeks ago SPY/QQQ were rolling (-1.8%/-3.3% 7D) while DIA/IWM/RSP caught the bid; now SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM/RSP/VTI are all green together — the earlier bifurcation has resolved into synchronized strength.
  2. XLC bounced hard but didn't repair: RSI 30.2 (near-capitulation) → RSI 50.0, but it's still death-crossed and -8.5% off its high, same "strong-down" trend label as before.
  3. FXI still the standout China laggard: RSI 23.4 → 38.8, a real bounce off capitulation, but still -22.6% off its high and death-crossed — not investable yet.
  4. Bond bid faded: TLT/IEF/LQD were RSI 61-66 (real flight-to-quality signal) two weeks ago; now RSI 47-52 — a much more neutral rates backdrop.
  5. Growth snapped back: VUG RSI 39.1 → 54.9, the sharpest factor move on the board.
  6. XBI kept ripping: RSI 76.2 → 77.0, another +2.6% week on top of an already-extreme move — now the most overbought single name on the whole dashboard.
  7. Vol stayed dead: VIXY/VXX both still in "collapse" regime, -39% over 3 months, unchanged risk-on backdrop.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.