Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard, June 25, 2026
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Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard, June 25, 2026
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 51 rows · screens, not recommendations
The index is a two-tape market: the broad/equal-weight/cyclical side is intact and pressing highs (DIA RSI 63.5, IWM 62.2, XLI 65.3 breakout, VTV 69 breakout, RSP 61.8, MTUM 61.2 — all within ~1-2% of 52wk highs), while the cap-weighted growth/comm-services side is in a real drawdown (QQQ -3.4% 7D, XLC RSI 26.3 strong-down, XLK -3.9% 7D). Vol is dead (VIXY/VXX RSI ~41, collapse regime, -53% from highs) so this is rotation, not panic. The standout damage is in metals — GLD RSI 32.6 / SLV RSI 29.2 (-24.9% 30D) — plus China (FXI RSI 23.3, strong-down). Leadership = financials, industrials, value, small-caps, biotech (XBI RSI 73 breakout); laggards = mega-cap growth, comm-services, discretionary (XLY downtrend), energy (XLE basing), precious metals.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25 (all names fresh, latestDate 2026-06-25). Same-day pre-close = intraday snapshot.
Macro Regime Read
- Risk appetite: cautiously risk-ON, but narrow. Credit is calm (HYG/LQD flat-to-up, RSI 53-61, near highs), equal-weight RSP and small-cap IWM are above SMA20 and near 52wk highs, and vol is in outright collapse — none of that says risk-off. The drawdown is concentrated in cap-weighted Nasdaq names (QQQ/XLK/XLC), so the S&P-500 tape looks softer than the average stock.
- Leadership rotation: OUT of mega-cap growth, INTO cyclicals/value/defensives. Winning: XLI (breakout, +5.9% 30D), XLF (+3.4% 30D), VTV (breakout, RSI 69), XLV (+5.3% 30D), XLU (+1.8%), housing (XHB/ITB +13% 30D), biotech (XBI +13.8% 30D). Losing: XLC (RSI 26.3), XLK (flat but -3.9% 7D), XLY (downtrend, -4.9% 30D), XLE (-5.8% 30D), and the whole precious-metals/China complex. Bonds bid (TLT RSI 65.6, +3% 30D) — a mild flight-to-quality undertone beneath an equity tape that is still trending up.
Price Table — Broad Index
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | $520.12 | 63.5 | strong-up | +0.31% | +3.22% | +13.66% | +1.6% | -1.22% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| IWM | $298.58 | 62.2 | strong-up | +1.36% | +3.02% | +20.96% | +2.8% | -0.96% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| SPY | $734.30 | 48.0 | strong-up | -1.65% | -1.92% | +14.12% | -1.2% | -3.43% | NEUTRAL |
| VTI | $363.98 | 49.0 | strong-up | -1.46% | -1.48% | +14.26% | -1.0% | -2.86% | NEUTRAL |
| QQQ | $715.00 | 49.8 | strong-up | -3.38% | -1.98% | +24.75% | -1.4% | -4.51% | NEUTRAL |
Price Table — Sectors (XL*)
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | $184.12 | 65.3 | strong-up | -0.71% | +5.90% | +14.45% | +4.5% | -1.06% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XLV | $155.63 | 64.8 | up | +2.66% | +5.25% | +7.26% | +3.0% | -3.09% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XLU | $45.85 | 63.5 | strong-up | +1.40% | +1.80% | +1.80% | +3.8% | -4.08% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XLF | $53.45 | 59.8 | up | -0.79% | +3.44% | +9.35% | +1.7% | -5.43% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XLRE | $44.59 | 56.2 | strong-up | +0.63% | +0.61% | +11.64% | +1.2% | -2.32% | NEUTRAL |
| XLB | $51.84 | 55.0 | strong-up | -2.09% | +2.05% | +5.99% | +1.2% | -4.25% | NEUTRAL |
| XLP | $83.94 | 52.5 | strong-up | +1.05% | +1.07% | +4.17% | +0.8% | -6.88% | NEUTRAL |
| XLK | $184.57 | 52.2 | strong-up | -3.90% | -0.19% | +39.47% | -1.5% | -7.13% | NEUTRAL |
| XLY | $113.35 | 42.1 | down | -1.02% | -4.92% | +4.36% | -2.6% | -9.33% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| XLE | $54.09 | 39.6 | weak-down | +0.28% | -5.83% | -11.44% | -3.5% | -14.77% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| XLC | $105.58 | 26.3 ↓ | strong-down | -2.20% | -8.39% | -2.72% | -4.9% | -12.31% | BROKEN/AVOID |
Price Table — Intl / Bonds / Commodities / Factors / Vol
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | 52wkHi% | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTV | $220.49 | 69.0 | strong-up | +0.29% | +3.94% | +12.96% | +2.5% | -0.75% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XBI | $151.59 | 73.0 ↑ | strong-up | +7.32% | +13.79% | +22.47% | +11.3% | -2.01% | EXTENDED/TRIM |
| ITB | $104.35 | 68.2 | up | +3.74% | +13.50% | +15.71% | +8.7% | -11.57% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| XHB | $115.92 | 68.0 | up | +2.35% | +13.44% | +18.38% | +8.5% | -5.86% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| TLT | $87.35 | 65.6 | up | +0.41% | +3.04% | +2.62% | +1.8% | -5.25% | NEUTRAL |
| RSP | $211.75 | 61.8 | strong-up | -0.13% | +2.37% | +11.25% | +1.3% | -1.19% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| BND | $73.64 | 61.6 | strong-up | +0.16% | +0.93% | +1.74% | +0.6% | -2.12% | NEUTRAL |
| MTUM | $338.55 | 61.2 | strong-up | -2.51% | +7.92% | +42.28% | +4.6% | -2.04% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| LQD | $109.52 | 61.1 | strong-up | +0.13% | +1.06% | +2.73% | +0.6% | -3.02% | NEUTRAL |
| IEF | $94.88 | 60.0 | up | +0.22% | +0.98% | +1.31% | +0.8% | -3.24% | NEUTRAL |
| SMH | $636.88 | 57.1 | strong-up | -5.32% | +5.77% | +67.23% | +3.1% | -5.20% | NEUTRAL |
| EWJ | $93.54 | 53.9 | strong-up | -3.89% | +1.23% | +13.71% | +0.8% | -4.09% | NEUTRAL |
| HYG | $79.86 | 53.7 | strong-up | -0.15% | +0.11% | +2.74% | +0.1% | -1.84% | NEUTRAL |
| EFA | $103.32 | 53.5 | strong-up | -2.06% | -0.16% | +10.87% | +0.4% | -2.47% | NEUTRAL |
| EEM | $68.05 | 52.3 | strong-up | -4.64% | 0.00% | +23.32% | 0.0% | -4.90% | NEUTRAL |
| QUAL | $212.87 | 48.4 | strong-up | -1.41% | -1.18% | +12.15% | -1.0% | -3.16% | NEUTRAL |
| VWO | $58.80 | 47.0 | weak-down | -2.85% | -2.26% | +11.38% | -1.4% | -4.42% | NEUTRAL |
| VIXY | $22.48 | 40.9 | strong-down | +3.35% | -8.77% | -36.66% | -3.2% | -53.23% | NEUTRAL (vol collapse) |
| VXX | $23.25 | 40.9 | strong-down | +3.40% | -9.32% | -36.51% | -3.5% | -52.83% | NEUTRAL (vol collapse) |
| VUG | $83.05 | 39.8 | weak-down | -3.17% | -5.84% | +15.28% | -4.1% | -8.33% | NEUTRAL |
| COPX | $76.99 | 40.1 | weak-down | -12.99% | -12.02% | +8.60% | -9.3% | -23.01% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| USO | $109.31 | 32.2 | weak-down | -4.23% | -20.21% | -6.78% | -12.7% | -29.06% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| GLD | $369.94 | 32.6 | down | -6.05% | -10.64% | -7.66% | -6.0% | -27.42% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| SLV | $52.36 | 29.2 ↓ | down | -13.96% | -24.90% | -13.84% | -15.1% | -52.33% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| FXI | $31.63 | 23.3 ↓ | strong-down | -2.88% | -10.85% | -8.77% | -7.7% | -24.69% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| UNG | $11.75 | 54.5 | weak-up | +2.44% | +7.70% | -0.76% | +1.1% | -31.00% | NEUTRAL |
Tape Read
- Two markets in one index. Equal-weight (RSP RSI 61.8), Dow (DIA 63.5), small-caps (IWM 62.2) and value (VTV 69) are pressing 52wk highs while SPY/QQQ/VTI sit at neutral RSI ~48-50 and below SMA20 — the cap-weighted mega-cap drag is masking a healthy broad tape. This is the rotation entry-hunters want: the average stock is strong; the megacaps are on sale.
- Cyclical/value rotation confirmed. XLI (breakout), XLF, XLV, XLU all RSI 60-65 and above SMA20; housing (XHB/ITB +13% 30D) and biotech (XBI breakout) leading the move. Industrials + financials + value leadership is a classic mid-cycle, risk-on-but-broadening signal — not a defensive-only flight.
- Comm-services is the broken sector. XLC RSI 26.3, strong-down, death cross, -8.4% 30D — washed but no turn yet; this is where the mega-cap growth pain (GOOGL/META, see ai-scan) concentrates. Discretionary (XLY) in outright downtrend. Don't bottom-fish the sector ETF; pick the structurally-intact single names instead.
- Metals + China are the macro damage. SLV RSI 29.2 (-24.9% 30D, -52% from high, collapse regime), GLD RSI 32.6 (-10.6% 30D), FXI RSI 23.3 — all oversold but in down trends below SMA200 (GLD) or strong-down (FXI). These are falling knives, not dips; below SMA-trend with RSI not yet washed-and-turning.
- Vol collapse confirms it's rotation, not risk-off. VIXY/VXX RSI ~41, -53% from highs, collapse regime. A real risk-off would have vol bid; instead the bid is in cyclicals and credit. Bonds (TLT RSI 65.6, +3% 30D) carry a mild flight-to-quality tone but it's orderly.
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | DIA, IWM, RSP, VTV, MTUM, XLI, XLF, XLV, XLU, XHB, ITB | Cyclical/value/small-cap leadership, RSI 60-69, near 52wk highs — the strong side of the tape |
| 🔍 WATCH | SPY, QQQ, VTI, XLK, SMH | Cap-weight pullback to neutral RSI / below SMA20; mega-cap drag — watch for SMA20 reclaim before adding |
| ⚠️ AVOID/TRIM | XBI | RSI 73 breakout, +11.3% vs SMA20 — extended, don't chase the biotech rip |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | SLV, GLD, COPX, USO, FXI, XLC, XLY, XLE | Metals/energy/China + comm-services/discretionary — oversold but in down trends with no confirmed floor; falling knives |
What Changed
- Mega-cap drawdown is now an index-level story — QQQ -3.4% 7D, XLK -3.9% 7D, and SPY/VTI both slipped below SMA20 into neutral RSI; the cap-weighted tape softened while breadth held.
- Cyclical/value rotation accelerated — XLI to breakout (+5.9% 30D), XLF/XLV/XLU all RSI 60+, value VTV to RSI 69, housing +13% 30D. Leadership rotated decisively out of growth.
- Precious metals broke down hard — SLV -24.9% 30D (RSI 29, collapse), GLD -10.6% 30D (RSI 32.6); the whole complex retraced into oversold but below trend.
- China weakest single market — FXI RSI 23.3, -10.9% 30D, -24.7% from high, strong-down.
- Vol stayed dead — VIXY/VXX in collapse regime confirms the equity pullback is rotation, not a fear event.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Equal-weight (RSP), Dow, small-caps and value at/near 52wk highs while SPY/QQQ sit at neutral RSI below SMA20 | The average stock is in an uptrend; the index weakness is a mega-cap concentration artifact — broad tape is risk-on |
| VIXY/VXX in collapse regime (-53% from highs) during a Nasdaq drawdown | No fear bid → this is sector rotation, not a risk-off event; treat mega-cap weakness as an entry window not a crash |
| XLC RSI 26.3 + XLY downtrend the only broken sectors; cyclicals all RSI 60+ | Growth/comm-services pain is contained, not systemic; the rotation has a clear winner (cyclicals/value) and loser (mega-cap growth) |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying SLV/GLD/FXI on RSI <33 "oversold" | All below SMA-trend in down/strong-down regimes, -10% to -25% 30D with no floor — oversold + downtrend = falling knife, not a dip |
| Chasing XBI at RSI 73 / +11% vs SMA20 | Biotech breakout is extended; wait for a flag/pullback to SMA20 rather than buying the vertical |
Open Questions
- Is the cap-weight drawdown (QQQ/XLK) a healthy rotation that broad breadth absorbs, or the leading edge of a deeper mega-cap de-rate that eventually drags the index? (cross-check ai-scan mega-cap RSIs)
- Does the bond bid (TLT RSI 65.6) + cyclical leadership signal a soft-landing rate-cut setup, or a late-cycle defensive tilt dressed as rotation?
- Precious-metals collapse (SLV -25% 30D): dollar-driven washout in a secular uptrend, or regime change? (cross-check macro-commodities)
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