Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
The tape is unwinding two weeks ago's risk-off snapshot from the middle out: the bond complex and the two most-damaged sectors (XLY, XLC) recovered off their oversold lows, defensives (XLF, XLV) pushed to or into overbought, but energy gave back most of its hot run and tech/semis (XLK, SMH) cracked to fresh cycle lows. Every ticker on this board carries a fresh 2026-07-28 close (market-pulse) — no staleness caveat this cycle.
FROTH READ: vs VWAP = how far current price sits above/below the volume-weighted average buyer across the full history. Names >50% above VWAP are parabolic; names below VWAP have traded back through their entire average-buyer cost basis.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Rotation continues, not a clean risk-on turn — bond complex and the two death-crossed sectors bounce off oversold while tech/semis crack further and energy's rally cools hard |
| Key insight | The sector-rotation gauge still reads "defensives bidding" / risk-off: XLE, XLF, XLV, XLB, and XLP lead 30-day sector returns while XLU, XLY, XBI, XLK, and SMH lag (`regime-signals.json`) |
| Standout | USO — trend flipped from strong-up to weak-down as RSI collapsed from 69.8 [prior scan] to 48.0, the sharpest single-instrument reversal on the board |
| Caveat | None — every ticker in this dashboard carries a fresh 2026-07-28 close read |
What's Going On
Broad indices firmed almost across the board except for QQQ, which kept sliding — RSI fell from 39.3 to 36.7 and its 30-day change deepened to -6.71%, still the weakest of the six with no death cross yet. DIA and RSP posted the clearest strength: DIA's RSI jumped to 59.8 and RSP's to 66.2, both still in a clean strong-up trend with no death cross anywhere in the group. SPY and VTI both ticked higher off their prior weak-down flips (RSI 47.6 and 47.7) without a full trend repair.
Sector rotation is the most textured story on the board. XLF pushed into outright overbought (RSI 63.7→72.0) and XLV followed into a breakout regime (60.3→68.3), while XLP and XLB both strengthened alongside them — a broad defensive/value bid. XLE is the mirror image: after nearing overbought two weeks ago it cooled sharply, RSI falling from 69.8 to 54.1 as its 7-day change flipped from +3.36% to -1.59%. XLK hit a fresh cycle low (RSI 43.4→38.5, 30-day change deepening to -7.72%) with no death cross yet, while the two previously death-crossed laggards — XLY and XLC — both bounced meaningfully in RSI (32.9→43.0 and 37.2→48.8) even though both remain technically death-crossed.
The bond complex staged a broad RSI recovery. TLT (33.0→47.5), IEF (39.6→48.8), BND (37.0→47.1), and LQD (29.8→40.3) all climbed out of the oversold band, and HYG followed (38.9→46.2) — but the recovery is uneven under the surface: TLT, IEF, BND, and LQD are all still death-crossed, while HYG never carried a death cross even during its prior flip to weak-down. That structural split — sovereign/investment-grade paper still damaged, high-yield technically clean — is the detail worth tracking if the "rates story, not credit stress" read is going to hold.
Commodities and industry dashboards split hard. USO gave back its entire hot rally — RSI fell from 69.8 [oil, prior scan] to 48.0 and its 7-day change flipped from +10.27% to -6.49%, with the trend itself flipping from strong-up to weak-down. UNG fell into oversold (41.6→31.2, 30-day change worsening to -14.26%). SMH deepened its own break (42.9→37.1, 30-day change now -16.2%) while MTUM's crack widened further (44.2→37.6, 30D -13.0%). On the positive side, FXI jumped to RSI 66.9 (still death-crossed) and XHB's cross flipped from death to golden — the one clean structural repair on the board.
What Changed Since the 2026-07-25 Pulse
- USO's rally reversed outright: RSI 69.8→48.0 [labeled 67.2 in the prior write-up, both refer to the same reading window], 7D +10.27%→-6.49%, 30D +28.6%→+12.52%, trend flipped strong-up→weak-down.
- XLE cooled sharply off its near-overbought high: RSI 69.8→54.1, 7D +3.36%→-1.59%, 30D +11.29%→+7.45%.
- XLF pushed into outright overbought: RSI 63.7→72.0, 30D +4.82%→+7.22%, now in breakout-adjacent territory near its 52-week high.
- XLV moved into a breakout regime: RSI 60.3→68.3, 30D +6.01%→+4.06%, 7D +0.92%→+4.37%.
- The bond complex broadly recovered RSI: TLT 33.0→47.5, IEF 39.6→48.8, BND 37.0→47.1, LQD 29.8→40.3, HYG 38.9→46.2 — all climbing out of the RSI 25-40 band even though TLT/IEF/BND/LQD remain death-crossed and HYG does not.
- XLY and XLC both bounced off their death-crossed lows: XLY RSI 32.9→43.0 (7D -5.22%→-2.08%); XLC RSI 37.2→48.8 (7D -3.93%→-0.33%) — neither repaired its death cross.
- XLK hit a fresh cycle low: RSI 43.4→38.5, 30D -3.92%→-7.72%, still no death cross.
- SMH deepened its break: RSI 42.9→37.1, 30D -9.33%→-16.2%.
- XHB's cross flipped from death to golden: the one clean structural repair on the board this cycle, RSI 50.2→53.2.
- UNG fell into oversold: RSI 41.6→31.2, 30D -10.06%→-14.26%.
- MTUM's crack widened: RSI 44.2→37.6, 30D -6.71%→-13.0%.
- FXI extended its bounce: RSI 57.9→66.9, 30D +6.86%→+12.43% — still the group's only death-crossed international name.
- DIA and RSP posted the strongest broad-index reads: DIA RSI 49.2→59.8; RSP RSI 55.5→66.2.
How To Read The Board
RSI < 30 = capitulation/oversold zone (context-dependent — check trend and death-cross flags before treating as a buy signal). RSI 30-50 = neutral-to-recovering. RSI 50-70 = healthy uptrend. RSI > 70 = overbought/extended. "vs VWAP" shows distance from the average buyer's cost basis across the instrument's full history — a rough measure of how "paid up" the current price is. A death cross (50-day average below the 200-day) flags a structurally damaged trend even when short-term RSI looks fine.
Broad Indices
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $740.86 | 47.6 | -0.8% | -0.99% | -0.02% | +4.38% | +9.1% | -2.57% | weak-down | 🟡 RSI recovered off last cycle's flip, trend still weak-down |
| QQQ | $675.49 | 36.7 | -4.6% | -4.72% | -6.71% | +2.22% | +8.35% | -9.77% | weak-down | 🔴 Weakest of the six, RSI kept falling |
| DIA | $526.89 | 59.8 | +0.7% | +1.03% | +1.03% | +8.21% | +10.39% | -1.06% | strong-up | 🟢 Strongest read in the group |
| IWM | $293.37 | 49.9 | -0.6% | -1.07% | -1.87% | +8.08% | +15.57% | -3.09% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooling but no death cross |
| VTI | $365.99 | 47.7 | -0.8% | -0.94% | -0.31% | +4.81% | +8.91% | -2.32% | weak-down | 🟡 RSI recovered off last cycle's flip |
| RSP | $217.69 | 66.2 | +1.8% | +2.32% | +2.18% | +9.04% | +12.29% | -0.17% | strong-up | 🟢 Broadest strength, near its 52-week high |
Read: No death crosses anywhere in this group. DIA and RSP posted the clearest improvement (RSI up 10+ points each), while QQQ is the one name still weakening — its RSI fell further and its 30-day drawdown is now the deepest of the six.
Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL ETFs)
| Sector | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF (Financials) | $57.60 | 72.0 | +2.66% | +7.22% | +10.37% | 0% | strong-up | 🟠 Into outright overbought, at its 52-week high |
| XLV (Health) | $167.26 | 68.3 | +4.37% | +4.06% | +13.47% | -0.75% | strong-up | 🟢 Breakout regime, near overbought |
| XLRE (Real Estate) | $46.01 | 63.9 | +1.79% | +2.43% | +11.05% | -0.96% | strong-up | 🟢 Steady, breakout regime |
| XLB (Materials) | $52.34 | 60.6 | +4.47% | +3.32% | +9.85% | -3.32% | strong-up | 🟢 Extended further |
| XLP (Staples) | $87.06 | 61.0 | +3.57% | +3.19% | +7.54% | -3.42% | strong-up | 🟢 Extended further |
| XLE (Energy) | $57.57 | 54.1 | -1.59% | +7.45% | +12.57% | -9.28% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled hard off near-overbought |
| XLI (Industrial) | $182.49 | 56.8 | +2.14% | -0.15% | +12.64% | -2.12% | strong-up | 🟢 Roughly flat, still near highs |
| XLU (Utilities) | $45.52 | 51.6 | +1.34% | -1.09% | +3.7% | -4.77% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled from prior improvement |
| XLC (Comm Svcs) | $109.67 | 48.8 | -0.33% | +1.66% | -3.21% | -8.92% | strong-down | 🟡 Bounced off the lows, still death-crossed |
| XLY (Cons Discret) | $112.48 | 43.0 | -2.08% | -3.96% | -3.18% | -10.02% | strong-down | 🟡 Bounced off the lows, still death-crossed |
| XLK (Tech) | $171.09 | 38.5 | -5.36% | -7.72% | +15.91% | -13.91% | weak-down | 🔴 Fresh cycle low |
Read: XLF is at its 52-week high and pushed into outright overbought, joined by a broad defensive/value bid (XLV, XLRE, XLB, XLP). XLE cooled sharply off its own near-overbought high. XLY and XLC both bounced meaningfully in RSI terms but neither repaired its death cross — and XLK hit a fresh cycle low with no death cross yet, the sector most at risk of joining them.
International
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FXI (China) | $35.65 | 66.9 | +2.95% | +12.43% | -4.71% | -15.12% | weak-up | 🟢 Extended its bounce, still death-crossed |
| EFA (Dev Int'l) | $103.89 | 52.1 | -0.16% | +0.43% | +8.08% | -1.94% | strong-up | 🟢 Steadiest int'l name |
| VWO (Emg Mkts) | $57.74 | 42.3 | -1.9% | -2.43% | +4.59% | -6.14% | weak-down | 🟡 Roughly flat |
| EWJ (Japan) | $89.83 | 41.6 | -3.14% | -3.63% | +6.53% | -7.89% | weak-down | 🟡 Weakened this cycle |
| EEM (Emg Mkts) | $62.36 | 38.6 | -4.56% | -7.52% | +7.43% | -12.87% | weak-down | 🔍 Weakest of the group |
Read: FXI remains the group's standout — extending its bounce to RSI 66.9 while still the only death-crossed name here. EWJ and EEM both weakened this cycle after last cycle's stabilization.
Bonds
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEF (7-10yr Tsy) | $93.56 | 48.8 | +0.27% | -1.26% | -0.54% | strong-down | 🟡 RSI recovered, still death-crossed |
| TLT (20yr Tsy) | $84.24 | 47.5 | +0.69% | -3.32% | -1.76% | strong-down | 🟡 Biggest single RSI recovery in the complex, still death-crossed |
| BND (Total Bond) | $72.64 | 47.1 | +0.17% | -1.13% | +0.08% | strong-down | 🟡 RSI recovered, still death-crossed |
| HYG (High Yield) | $79.42 | 46.2 | -0.29% | -0.28% | +1.67% | weak-down | 🟡 RSI recovered — and never carried a death cross |
| LQD (Inv Grade Corp) | $106.83 | 40.3 | -0.02% | -2.28% | -0.83% | strong-down | 🟡 Climbed out of oversold, still death-crossed |
Read: Every bond ETF on this board posted a meaningful RSI recovery, but the structural picture is split — TLT, IEF, BND, and LQD are all still death-crossed, while HYG is not and never was during this stretch. That gap is worth watching: if credit (HYG) keeps decoupling positively from the sovereign/IG complex, the "rates move, not credit stress" read strengthens.
Commodities
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO (Oil) | $120.49 | 48.0 | -6.49% | +12.52% | +12.71% | -21.8% | weak-down | 🔴 Rally reversed, trend flipped from strong-up |
| GLD (Gold) | $369.37 | 43.5 | -1.45% | +0.21% | -7.92% | -27.53% | strong-down | 🟡 Roughly flat (death cross, no-view) |
| SLV (Silver) | $51.70 | 41.3 | -2.6% | -1.86% | -23.04% | -52.93% | strong-down | 🟡 Ticked down, still worst chart on the board |
| COPX (Copper) | $76.52 | 47.4 | -2.2% | +1.03% | -0.01% | -23.47% | weak-down | 🟡 Roughly flat |
| UNG (Nat Gas) | $9.80 | 31.2 | -5.77% | -14.26% | -21.74% | -42.45% | strong-down | 🔍 Fell into oversold |
Read: USO's rally reversed outright — the sharpest single-instrument move on this dashboard — while UNG dropped into the oversold band. GLD and SLV both stayed roughly flat, still death-crossed.
Volatility
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | Regime | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VXX | $22.03 | 46.5 | +3.09% | -2.31% | -24.09% | -28.87% | collapse | 🟡 Roughly flat, still structurally dead |
| VIXY | $21.24 | 46.7 | +2.81% | -2.12% | -24.17% | -29.08% | collapse | 🟡 Roughly flat, still structurally dead |
Read: Both products sit essentially where they did last cycle — modest positive 7-day changes, still roughly a quarter below their own VWAP, still in "collapse" regime.
Factor Rotation
| Factor | Price | RSI | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTV (Value) | $222.99 | 68.4 | +1.99% | +10.07% | +14.48% | -0.26% | 🟢 Steadiest leader, extended further |
| QUAL (Quality) | $218.46 | 54.5 | +0.54% | +6.36% | +9.42% | -1.22% | 🟢 Improved |
| VUG (Growth) | $83.33 | 39.8 | -1.79% | +0.9% | +3.85% | -8.02% | 🟡 Roughly flat |
| MTUM (Momentum) | $292.32 | 37.6 | -13.0% | +5.38% | +6.49% | -15.41% | 🔴 Crack deepened further |
Read: Value remains the steadiest leader on this board, its RSI climbing further to 68.4. Momentum is the clear laggard — its 30-day drawdown widened from -6.71% to -13.0%, the sharpest deterioration in this group.
Industry Dashboards
| ETF | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITB (Home Const.) | $100.33 | 56.1 | +5.69% | -3.5% | +5.67% | -0.68% | -14.97% | up | 🟢 Improved, still death-crossed |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | $109.64 | 53.2 | +3.49% | -4.98% | +5.53% | +1.42% | -10.96% | strong-up | 🟢 Cross flipped from death to golden |
| XBI (Biotech) | $149.78 | 47.6 | -3.06% | -5.39% | +16.32% | +24.42% | -9.61% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled further, clean strong-up trend |
| SMH (Semis) | $529.60 | 37.1 | -9.33% | -16.2% | +6.01% | +22.1% | -21.17% | weak-down | 🔴 Deepened its break |
Read: XHB's cross flipping from death to golden is the one clean structural repair on this dashboard. SMH is the mirror image — its 30-day drawdown widened from -9.33% to -16.2%, the sharpest deterioration among the industry dashboards.
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None on this board.
Oversold (RSI < 40)
UNG (31.2), SMH (37.1), MTUM (37.6), QQQ (36.7), XLK (38.5), EEM (38.6), VUG (39.8) — seven names. This is a smaller, more concentrated group than the bond-heavy oversold cohort two cycles ago; it's now clustered around growth/tech (QQQ, XLK, SMH, MTUM, VUG) plus two commodity/EM names (UNG, EEM).
Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)
The remaining 35 names, led by XLF (72.0, overbought), VTV (68.4), XLV (68.3), FXI (66.9), and RSP (66.2).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | Thesis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF / XLV | Watch for exhaustion near highs | RSI 72.0/68.3 — into or near overbought | 🔍 Watch |
| XLE | Hold, reassess | Rally reversed hard off near-overbought; trend intact but cooling | 🔒 Hold |
| Bond complex (TLT, IEF, BND, LQD) | Watch | RSI recovered out of oversold but all four remain death-crossed | 🔍 Watch |
| HYG | Hold | RSI recovered and never death-crossed — the cleanest name in the complex | 🔒 Hold |
| XLY / XLC | Watch | Bounced off death-crossed lows, structure not repaired | 🔍 Watch |
| XLK / SMH | Avoid for now | Fresh cycle lows, no death cross yet but deteriorating | ⚠️ Avoid |
| USO | Avoid for now | Rally reversed, trend flipped to weak-down | ⚠️ Avoid |
| XHB | Watch | Death cross flipped to golden — the one structural repair on the board | 🔍 Watch |
| International (FXI, EFA) | Hold | Steadiest reads outside the core indices | 🔒 Hold |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF, XLV | 🟠 | 🔍 Watch | Into or near overbought after a strong run |
| XLRE, XLB, XLP, XLI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Defensive/value bid intact, near highs |
| DIA, RSP, FXI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Strongest reads on the board this cycle |
| XLE | 🟡 | 🔒 Hold | Rally reversed hard, trend intact |
| TLT, IEF, BND, LQD | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI recovered, all four still death-crossed |
| HYG | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | RSI recovered, never death-crossed |
| XLY, XLC | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Bounced off lows, structure not repaired |
| XLK, SMH | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Fresh cycle lows, deteriorating further |
| USO | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Trend flipped from strong-up to weak-down |
| UNG | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Fell into oversold |
| MTUM | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Crack deepened further |
| XHB | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Structural repair, death cross flipped to golden |
| SPY, QQQ, IWM, VTI | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Mixed; QQQ the one still weakening |
What To Watch Next
- Whether USO's reversal (RSI down from near-overbought to 48.0, trend flipped) is a one-cycle digestion or the start of a real leg down in oil.
- Whether XLF's push into outright overbought (RSI 72.0, at its 52-week high) exhausts soon or extends.
- Whether the bond complex's RSI recovery becomes a real structural repair (golden cross) or stays a bounce inside death-crossed charts — HYG's clean structure vs. the rest of the complex is the tell to track.
- Whether XLK and SMH's fresh cycle lows mark a bottom or precede an actual death cross — neither has crossed yet despite the RSI damage.
- Whether XLY and XLC's RSI bounce turns into a real recovery from their death crosses or fades the way prior one-week pops have on this board.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close — market-pulse.
- Regime context (sector-rotation gauge, breadth): regime-signals.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.