Market Pulse Scan

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Market Pulse Scan

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BNDCOPXDIAEEMEFAEWJFXIGLDHYGIEFITBIWMLQDMTUMQQQQUALRSPSLVSMHSPYTLTUNGUSOVIXYVTIVTVVUGVWOVXXXBIXHBXLBXLCXLEXLFXLIXLKXLPXLREXLUXLVXLY
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@market-pulse
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 68 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-04-13-market-pulse.md

I now have all the data I need. Let me compile the three scan reports using only the pre-computed numbers from the summary JSONs.

2026-04-14 Market Pulse Scan

Broad risk-on rally masks a dangerous three-market divergence: equities strong-up across all major indices, but oil (USO +77% 3M, RSI 59 off a +51% 30D move) just got a new catalyst from a Hormuz naval blockade. Gold is flat and fading. Bonds are asleep. The market is pricing Hormuz as a supply-shock-contained trade, not an escalation — but that interpretation could snap violently.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟠 THREE-MARKET DIVERGENCE — Equities ripping (SPY RSI 64, IWM RSI 64), oil getting fresh geopolitical fuel (USO +77% 3M), gold flat (RSI 49), bonds flat (TLT RSI 49). Complacency signal.
Leaders SMH (+11% 7D, RSI 70), IWM (+3.9% 7D), XLK (+4.4% 7D, RSI 65), COPX (+9% 7D), XLB (+3.7% 7D)
Laggards UNG (-5.4% 7D, RSI 36, strong-down), XLP (+0.05% 7D, RSI 43), XLV (+1.6% 7D, RSI 47), VXX/VIXY (-8.7% 7D, RSI 41)
Hormuz context USO at $128.47 (RSI 59, +11.7% 30D, +77% 3M) — already had parabolic run. Blockade adds premium, but RSI isn't yet re-accelerating. Watch for next leg.

Broad Market

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SPY $686.10 +3.2% +2.8% 63.8 +4.1% strong-up 🟠 Strong but approaching overbought
QQQ $617.39 +3.8% +3.0% 63.5 +4.7% strong-up 🟠 Tech leading, golden cross intact
DIA $482.13 +2.7% +2.7% 60.4 +3.5% strong-up 🟠 Dow lagging semis but healthy
IWM $265.07 +3.9% +6.7% 64.2 +5.7% strong-up 🟠 Small caps outperforming — risk-on
VTI $338.67 +3.1% +3.1% 63.7 +4.2% strong-up 🟠 Total market in gear

Sectors (All 11 XL* ETFs)

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XLK $145.61 +4.4% +5.1% 65.1 +6.3% strong-up 🟠 Tech best sector — AI bid
XLF $51.66 +1.7% +5.3% 62.4 +4.3% weak-up 🟡 Death cross still in — shadow of Q1 weakness
XLE $57.11 -3.5% -0.7% 44.5 -3.8% strong-up 🟡 Energy pausing before Hormuz reacceleration
XLV $147.85 +1.6% -3.1% 47.1 +0.7% weak-down 🟡 Healthcare lagging — defensive money leaving
XLI $172.73 +4.7% +4.3% 61.7 +4.8% strong-up 🟠 Industrials strong — infrastructure bid
XLU $46.39 +1.2% -1.2% 53.7 +0.8% strong-up 🟡 Utilities holding, data center power thesis intact
XLP $81.55 +0.05% -3.5% 42.7 -0.6% weak-down 🟡 Staples weakest sector — money rotating out
XLY $112.47 +3.6% -1.5% 53.3 +2.6% strong-down 🟡 Consumer disc: death cross offsets 7D bounce
XLB $52.19 +3.7% +6.1% 65.6 +5.2% strong-up 🟠 Materials strong — Hormuz + copper supercycle
XLRE $43.02 +2.4% +1.7% 65.4 +3.9% strong-up 🟠 Real estate best 3M — data center REIT bid
XLC $114.82 +1.7% -0.1% 57.3 +2.5% strong-up 🟡 Comm services flat 30D despite today's bounce

International

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
EFA $102.81 +3.8% +4.8% 63.0 +5.3% strong-up 🟠 Developed markets outperforming — dollar weakness
EEM $61.07 +5.8% +4.6% 62.3 +6.0% strong-up 🟠 EM ripping — dollar decline + commodity lift
VWO $57.18 +4.7% +3.9% 62.7 +5.2% strong-up 🟠 EM ETF confirming rotation
FXI $36.46 +1.7% -1.1% 53.0 +1.8% strong-down 🟡 China lagging — death cross, tariff overhang
EWJ $88.35 +3.2% +3.9% 57.4 +4.1% strong-up 🟠 Japan recovering — yen risk to monitor

Bonds

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
TLT $86.75 -0.3% -0.1% 49.2 +0.4% weak-down 🟡 Long bonds completely flat — no flight to safety bid
IEF $95.48 +0.2% -0.2% 51.7 +0.4% weak-down 🟡 Intermediate bonds sideways
HYG $80.26 +0.4% +1.5% 60.5 +1.2% strong-up 🟠 High yield rising with equities — risk appetite confirmed
LQD $109.62 0.0% +1.3% 56.4 +1.0% strong-up 🟡 Investment grade credit holding
BND $73.80 +0.1% +0.3% 55.1 +0.5% strong-up 🟡 Broad bonds flat — not a fear trade

Commodities

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
GLD $435.36 +1.6% -5.4% +2.2% 49.2 +1.7% weak-down 🟡 Gold FLAT — puzzling non-reaction to Hormuz. Watching.
SLV $68.28 +4.7% -6.8% -19.3% 48.5 +3.0% weak-down 🟡 Silver pulled back hard 3M, stabilizing
USO $128.47 -9.0% +11.7% +76.9% 59.1 +3.8% strong-up 🔥 Oil parabolic 3M — Hormuz blockade is new catalyst. Digest before next leg.
COPX $84.87 +9.0% +7.9% +3.0% 60.1 +11.3% strong-up 🟠 Copper miners surging — infrastructure + EM demand
UNG $10.68 -5.4% -12.5% +4.3% 36.1 -8.7% strong-down 🔴 Nat gas falling hard — Hormuz doesn't help LNG directly

Volatility

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VIXY $28.62 -8.7% -8.7% 40.9 -13.5% strong-down 🟢 Vol collapsing — market is not afraid of Hormuz
VXX $29.58 -8.7% -8.9% 40.7 -13.5% strong-down 🟢 Vol products confirming complacency

Factors

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VUG $467.36 +3.8% +2.7% 62.5 +4.9% weak-up 🟡 Growth holding but death cross lingers
VTV $202.61 +1.9% +2.5% 61.4 +2.8% strong-up 🟠 Value participating — broad-based rally
MTUM $266.05 +6.8% +7.9% 68.0 +7.5% strong-up 🟠 Momentum factor roaring — follow the trend
QUAL $201.25 +3.0% +2.4% 60.8 +3.6% strong-up 🟠 Quality factor healthy
RSP $198.83 +1.6% +2.4% 59.6 +2.9% strong-up 🟠 Equal weight rising — breadth is real

Additional Market Benchmarks

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SMH $443.34 +10.9% +12.6% 69.6 +11.3% strong-up 🟠 Semis near all-time highs — monster move
XBI $132.05 -0.3% +6.6% 61.3 +5.4% strong-up 🟠 Biotech quietly strong

Housing

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XHB $105.53 +5.8% +4.1% 56.7 +5.8% strong-down 🟡 Housing bouncing but death cross — watch mortgage rates
ITB $95.26 +4.4% +1.2% 52.3 +4.1% strong-down 🟡 Homebuilders recovering from Q1 capitulation — not cleared yet

Tier Analysis

Overbought / Approaching Overbought (RSI 65+)

  • SMH (RSI 69.6) — semis up +10.9% in 7 days. Near all-time highs. Don't chase.
  • MTUM (RSI 68.0) — momentum factor accelerating. The trend is real.
  • XLK (RSI 65.1), XLB (RSI 65.6), XLRE (RSI 65.4) — sectors extended but in gear.
  • IWM (RSI 64.2) — small cap outperformance is a risk-on confirmation.

Neutral (RSI 45-65)

  • SPY (RSI 63.8), QQQ (RSI 63.5) — indices healthy, not euphoric.
  • USO (RSI 59.1) — oil cooling after parabolic 3M. Hormuz adds new catalyst.
  • GLD (RSI 49.2) — gold is NOT responding to Hormuz. This is the most important signal in the dashboard.
  • TLT (RSI 49.2) — bonds unmoved. No fear trade, no inflation spike pricing.

Approaching Oversold (RSI < 45)

  • UNG (RSI 36.1) — nat gas in freefall, -12.5% 30D. Strong-down trend.
  • XLP (RSI 42.7) — consumer staples weakening as money rotates to growth/materials.
  • VIXY/VXX (RSI ~41) — vol collapsing. Complacency.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry Zone Thesis
USO Current $128 (watch for pullback to $115-120) Hormuz blockade is a genuine catalyst for second leg in oil. Already had massive run — let 7D RSI digest before adding.
XLE $55-58 Energy sector lagging USO by design — XLE pulled back -3.5% 7D. Catch-up trade if Hormuz escalates.
COPX $80-86 Copper miners strong-up, 3M just +3% — still early relative to oil. Hormuz = Strait of Hormuz disrupts Gulf copper exports.
GLD $425-440 Gold's NON-REACTION to Hormuz is suspicious. Either market is right (contained) or gold is lagging. Risk/reward favors holding GLD.
IWM $255-265 Small caps outperforming — RSI 64. Any pullback to 30D SMA ($250) is a gift if macro holds.
TLT $85-87 Bonds dead flat — if Hormuz escalates to real war, bonds will finally move. Option-like upside from here.

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SMH 🟠 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 70, +10.9% 7D — semis parabolic. Don't chase all-time highs here.
USO 🟠 🔍 Watch RSI 59, Hormuz catalyst real. Wait for 7D consolidation, then add.
XLE 🟡 📈 Accumulate -3.5% 7D pullback with strong-up 3M trend. Hormuz catch-up trade.
COPX 🟠 📈 Accumulate Copper strong, RSI 60, not overbought. Infrastructure + Hormuz diversification.
GLD 🟡 🔒 Hold Non-reaction to Hormuz = warning or lag. Don't add, don't sell.
TLT 🟡 ⏳ Waiting Flat RSI 49. If Hormuz escalates → TLT finally moves. Alert at $90+.
IWM 🟠 🔒 Hold Strong-up, leading the rally. Hold core position, trim if RSI >70.
VIXY 🟢 ⚠️ Avoid Don't buy collapsing vol. RSI 41, strong-down trend.
UNG 🔴 ❌ Don't Buy Strong-down, -12.5% 30D, RSI 36. Nat gas unresponsive to Hormuz.
XLP 🟡 ❌ Don't Buy Defensive rotation trade over — money is in tech/materials/industrials.

Cross-Group Analysis

What the macro dashboard is telling us today:

  1. The Hormuz blockade is being priced as a contained supply shock, not a war. VIXY -8.7% 7D (RSI 41), TLT flat (RSI 49), GLD flat (RSI 49). If markets were pricing escalation, you'd see all three spiking. They aren't. This is either collective wisdom or dangerous complacency.

  2. Oil already had its run. USO is up +77% over 3 months with RSI at 59 off a -9% 7D pullback. The Hormuz announcement may reignite the move, but this isn't a new trade — it's a second leg in an existing one. Size accordingly.

  3. Gold's non-reaction is the most important data point. In every previous geopolitical escalation cycle, GLD led. RSI 49, -5.4% 30D, weak-down trend. Either the market doesn't believe the blockade is real, or this is a significant lag opportunity. Watch GLD at $425 for entry signal.

  4. Industrials and materials are the stealth winners. XLI (+4.7% 7D, RSI 62), XLB (+3.7% 7D, RSI 66), COPX (+9% 7D) are all ripping without Hormuz-specific narratives. This is infrastructure + war economy + commodity supercycle, not just oil.

  5. Small caps are telling us the US economy is NOT going into recession. IWM +3.9% 7D, RSI 64, +9% above SMA200. Small caps are the most economically sensitive. They don't rally into recessions.

  6. The momentum factor (MTUM) is at all-time highs. RSI 68, +6.8% 7D. Momentum is working. Trend-following strategies are making new highs. Follow the trend until you get a clear reversal signal.

What Changed

Previous scan (2026-03-12): Broad market in weak-down correction, USO parabolic at RSI 84, housing in capitulation (ITB RSI 22). Today: Complete reversal. Market is now strong-up across all major indices. USO has pulled back from RSI 84 to 59 (digesting the run) and just received the Hormuz blockade catalyst. Housing has recovered from capitulation (ITB RSI 22 → 52). The bear case from March was wrong — or early. New regime: risk-on broad rally with oil as the geopolitical wildcard.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
GLD RSI 49 / TLT RSI 49 on Hormuz blockade day Market pricing this as supply shock, NOT war. Enormous divergence from historical precedent.
IWM leading (RSI 64, +6.7% 30D) Small cap outperformance = US economy not recessionary. Changes the bear thesis.
USO +77% 3M, now digesting Second leg in oil if Hormuz escalates — but entry is now at RSI 59 not RSI 30. Sizing matters.
Vol (VIXY/VXX) at RSI 41, strong-down Complacency at peak geopolitical risk = potential powder keg

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Chasing USO at RSI 84 in March The 7D -9% pullback to RSI 59 was the entry, not the parabolic peak
Buying housing ETFs at RSI 22 too early ITB RSI 52 now — the recovery happened fast, but it took a full month

Open Questions

  • Is gold's non-reaction to Hormuz a buying opportunity or confirmation that the blockade is not credible?
  • Will equities hold strong-up if oil re-accelerates past $130/barrel (USO ~$140)?
  • Why is nat gas (UNG) falling while oil spikes? LNG supply not affected by Hormuz?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 28 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Mar 26 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 20 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 12 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 11 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 10 ScanMarket Pulse — Full Macro Dashboard May 29 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Mar 13 ScanMarket Pulse Jun 16 ScanMarket Pulse

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