Market Pulse

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Market Pulse

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BNDCOPXDIAEEMEFAEWJFXIGLDHYGIEFITBIWMLQDMTUMQQQQUALRSPSLVSMHSPYUNGUSOVIXYVTIVTVVUGVWOVXXXBIXHBXLBXLCXLEXLFXLIXLKXLPXLREXLUXLVXLY
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@market-pulse
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 68 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulseported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-12-market-pulse.mdscan slugmarket-pulsesource typescan-archive

Broad market in a sustained weak-down trend: SPY RSI 37, IWM RSI 35, DIA RSI 37 — all well below SMA20. Energy (XLE RSI 71) and precious metals (GLD, SLV) are the only sectors with clear upward momentum. Volatility (VIXY +16% 30D) is rising and housing (XHB RSI 24, ITB RSI 22) is in capitulation territory.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 RISK-OFF ROTATION — Broad indices weak-down with RSI 35-43, energy and gold making new moves, housing in free fall, vol rising. Not a crash but a grinding correction with defensive rotation.
Leaders USO (+51.8% 30D, RSI 84), GLD (+4.3% 30D), SLV (+13.8% 30D), XLE (+7.4% 30D), XLU (+3.5% 30D)
Laggards ITB (-17.1% 30D, RSI 22), XHB (-15.3% 30D, RSI 24), XLF (-5.4% 30D, RSI 29), EWJ (-9.6% 30D), FXI (-6.3% 30D)

Broad Market

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SPY $668.83 -0.7% -1.8% 37.4 -2.0% weak-down 🟡 Below 20D, treading water
QQQ $600.01 -0.1% -0.1% 43.6 -1.0% weak-down 🟡 Holding better than SPY
DIA $469.45 -1.4% -5.0% 36.7 -4.2% weak-down 🟡 Dow lagging
IWM $248.62 -2.1% -4.2% 35.3 -4.3% weak-down 🟡 Small caps underperforming
VTI $329.46 -0.8% -2.0% 37.0 -2.2% weak-down 🟡 Total market weak

Sectors (All 11 XL* ETFs)

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XLK $138.33 +0.2% -0.6% 45.0 -1.0% weak-down 🟡 Tech resilient vs market
XLF $48.91 -3.0% -5.4% 28.9 -4.6% down 🟢 Oversold — financials hit hard
XLE $57.96 +0.4% +7.4% 71.0 +4.2% strong-up 🟠 Energy ripping — near overbought
XLV $150.93 -0.8% -3.3% 35.5 -3.4% weak-down 🟡 Healthcare weak
XLI $166.12 -2.3% -3.8% 36.8 -4.5% weak-down 🟡 Industrials pulling back
XLU $46.83 -1.0% +3.5% 59.4 +0.3% strong-up 🟠 Utilities leading defensives
XLP $84.51 -1.2% -5.3% 39.7 -3.6% strong-up 🟡 Staples weak near-term
XLY $112.40 -1.5% -3.2% 33.0 -2.9% down 🟡 Consumer disc soft
XLB $49.90 -3.1% -5.6% 38.3 -4.1% weak-down 🟡 Materials pulling back
XLRE $42.35 -1.9% -1.2% 43.0 -2.3% strong-up 🟡 Real estate neutral
XLC $115.70 -1.3% +0.9% 43.0 -0.7% weak-down 🟡 Comm services best large sector

International

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
EFA $97.79 -0.4% -6.1% 34.8 -4.5% weak-down 🟡 Developed markets selling off
EEM $57.24 +1.7% -6.0% 38.8 -5.2% weak-down 🟡 EM down but stabilizing
VWO $54.44 +1.4% -5.8% 36.8 -4.3% weak-down 🟡 EM ETF bouncing slightly
FXI $36.22 +2.5% -6.3% 35.5 -3.2% down 🟡 China stabilizing after drop
EWJ $84.43 -0.2% -9.6% 37.5 -5.7% weak-down 🟡 Japan underperforming

Bonds

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
TLT $87.11 -1.8% -2.1% 38.7 -2.2% weak-down 🟡 Long bonds not rallying on risk-off
IEF $95.85 -0.5% -0.7% 40.3 -1.0% weak-down 🟡 Intermediate bonds sideways
HYG $79.61 -0.5% -1.0% 36.7 -0.8% weak-down 🟡 High yield slight weakness
LQD $108.71 -1.2% -1.9% 29.7 -1.9% weak-down 🟢 IG bonds approaching oversold
BND $73.73 -0.6% -0.9% 35.4 -1.0% weak-down 🟡 Broad bonds soft

Commodities

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
GLD $470.67 +1.9% +4.3% 52.5 +0.1% strong-up 🟠 Gold at all-time highs — safe haven bid
SLV $77.06 +4.9% +13.8% 50.0 +1.3% weak-down 🟠 Silver ripping
USO $115.97 +13.3% +51.8% 84.5 +30.2% strong-up 🔴 Oil parabolic — extremely overbought
COPX $80.29 -1.7% -7.9% 41.0 -8.2% weak-down 🟡 Copper pulling back
UNG $12.80 +9.0% +3.0% 54.6 +6.1% weak-up 🟡 Nat gas bouncing

Volatility

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VIXY $32.46 +4.1% +16.3% 60.1 +11.5% weak-up 🔴 Vol rising — market stress
VXX $33.69 +4.2% +17.0% 60.5 +11.9% weak-up 🔴 Vol products confirming stress

Factors

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VUG $456.93 +0.2% -0.7% 41.0 -1.1% down 🟡 Growth barely holding
VTV $197.63 -1.7% -3.4% 33.2 -3.2% weak-down 🟡 Value also selling off
MTUM $244.82 +0.3% -2.2% 42.6 -2.3% down 🟡 Momentum factor broken
QUAL $197.01 -1.0% -1.9% 36.6 -2.6% weak-down 🟡 Quality factor soft
RSP $194.68 -2.5% -3.0% 33.0 -3.4% weak-down 🟡 Equal weight lagging

Additional Market Benchmarks

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SMH $390.26 +1.0% -3.9% 44.9 -3.5% weak-down 🟡 Semis pulling back
XBI $122.85 +1.7% -0.3% 43.7 -2.3% weak-down 🟡 Biotech neutral

Housing (Capitulation Alert)

Stock Price 7D% 30D% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XHB $100.87 -6.3% -15.3% 24.1 -10.7% down 🟢 Oversold — homebuilders in freefall
ITB $93.19 -6.7% -17.1% 22.1 -11.5% down 🟢 Capitulation — RSI 22

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI < 25)

  • ITB (RSI 22.1) — -17.1% in 30 days, deep in capitulation territory. Contrarian entry zone if thesis intact.
  • XHB (RSI 24.1) — -15.3% 30D, homebuilders in freefall.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

  • XLF (RSI 28.9) — Financials oversold after -5.4% 30D
  • LQD (RSI 29.7) — IG credit approaching oversold
  • VTV (RSI 33.2), RSP (RSI 33.0), XLY (RSI 33.0), SPY (RSI 37.4), DIA (RSI 36.7), IWM (RSI 35.3), BND (RSI 35.4)

Neutral/Overbought (RSI 40+)

  • QQQ (RSI 43.6), XLK (RSI 45.0) — Tech holding relatively better
  • XLU (RSI 59.4), GLD (RSI 52.5) — Defensive/safe haven
  • USO (RSI 84.5) — Extremely overbought, don't chase
  • XLE (RSI 71.0) — Energy overbought

Entry Zones

Stock Entry Zone Thesis
ITB $88-95 Capitulation RSI 22 — housing oversold. Rate cut optionality. High risk/reward.
XHB $95-102 RSI 24 alongside ITB. Homebuilder ETF diversification.
XLF $47-50 RSI 29, oversold financials. Cyclical recovery play if rates stabilize.
IWM $240-252 Small caps RSI 35, -4.2% 30D. Highest beta to rate cuts.
GLD $460-475 Strong-up trend, 27% above SMA200. Best ongoing safe-haven trade.
TLT $85-88 RSI 39, bonds not rallying despite risk-off. Any real Fed pivot = big move.

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
GLD 🟠 🔒 Hold Strong-up, safe-haven bid, 27% above SMA200. Don't sell, don't chase.
SLV 🟠 🔒 Hold +13.8% 30D, ripping alongside gold.
XLE 🟠 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 71, +7.4% 30D — overbought. Do not chase here.
USO 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 84.5, +51.8% 30D — parabolic. Wait for massive pullback.
ITB 🟢 ✅ Strong Buy RSI 22, capitulation. Contrarian entry. Use tight stop.
XHB 🟢 📈 Accumulate RSI 24, oversold homebuilders alongside ITB.
XLF 🟢 📈 Accumulate RSI 29, oversold. Financials on watch for entry.
QQQ 🟡 🔍 Watch Holding best of major indices at RSI 43. Watch for breakdown below $590.
SPY 🟡 ⏳ Waiting RSI 37, not yet oversold enough. Wait for RSI <30 or $650 for strong entry.
VIXY 🔴 ⚠️ Avoid Don't buy vol products at +16% 30D. Vol spikes revert.
TLT 🟡 🔍 Watch RSI 39, bonds not rallying — unusual. Watch for Fed pivot signal.

Cross-Group Analysis

What the macro dashboard is telling us:

  1. Energy is the dominant trade. USO +51.8% 30D (RSI 84), XLE +7.4% (RSI 71) — oil/gas is in a parabolic move. Don't chase but it's the clearest trend in the market.

  2. Gold is your hedge, not bonds. TLT is down alongside equities (RSI 39) — the traditional "flight to safety" bond bid is absent. GLD strong-up at RSI 52 is the actual safe haven.

  3. Housing is in capitulation. ITB RSI 22, XHB RSI 24 — these are deep oversold readings after -17% and -15% 30D drops. This is either a buying opportunity or a leading indicator of economic weakness (higher for longer rates crushing affordability).

  4. Financials are cracking. XLF RSI 29, -5.4% 30D. Banks breaking down while the S&P is just -1.8% — this is a notable divergence.

  5. Tech is the relative safe harbor. QQQ RSI 43, XLK -0.6% 30D vs SPY -1.8%. Tech is the least bad sector right now.

  6. Volatility is elevated. VIXY +16% 30D, RSI 60 — the market is stressed but not panicking (would be RSI 80+ in a real panic).

What Changed

First 2026-03-12 market-pulse scan. Key new observations: USO in parabolic move, housing ETFs in capitulation, XLF breaking down vs SPY, gold diverging from weak bonds as primary safe haven.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
USO +51.8% 30D, RSI 84 Oil in a regime change — geopolitical risk premium? Supply shock?
ITB RSI 22, XHB RSI 24 Housing capitulation — either the best contrarian entry in the market or a macro warning
TLT RSI 39 while gold strong-up The bond/equity correlation has broken — gold is the new safe haven
XLF RSI 29 diverging from SPY -1.8% Financials cracking faster than market — watch for systemic signal

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Chasing oil/energy parabola USO at RSI 84 is a sell setup, not a buy
Buying bonds as "safe haven" TLT RSI 39 shows bonds aren't working this cycle

Open Questions

  • Is USO's parabolic move (+52% in 30 days) a supply shock or geopolitical event?
  • Are housing ETFs (ITB/XHB) a contrarian buy or a leading indicator of economic slowdown?
  • Why is XLF breaking down faster than the broad market?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Mar 11 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 10 ScanMarket Pulse — Full Macro Dashboard Mar 20 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 13 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 26 ScanMarket Pulse Apr 13 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 26 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 28 ScanMarket Pulse Scan May 29 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 3 ScanMarket Pulse Scan

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