Market Pulse Scan

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Market Pulse Scan

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BNDCOPXDIAEEMEFAEWJFXIGLDHYGIEFITBIWMLQDMTUMQQQQUALRSPSLVSMHSPYUNGUSOVIXYVTIVTVVUGVWOVXXXBIXHBXLBXLCXLEXLFXLIXLKXLPXLREXLUXLVXLY
Watchlists 1
@market-pulse
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 77 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-market-pulseported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-04-28-market-pulse.mdscan slugmarket-pulsesource typescan-archive

The risk-on rally extended again: SPY +4.8% 7D (RSI 66), QQQ at the lip of all-time highs (RSI 71), SMH +10.9% 7D (RSI 70), MTUM +19.7% 30D — but gold has slipped into the danger zone (GLD -14.9% 3M, RSI 40), small-caps lost 7D momentum (IWM -0.9%), and vol products keep collapsing (VXX -15.9% 7D), pricing total resolution.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟠 BROAD RISK-ON, COMPLACENCY DEEPENING — Equities firm, vol crushed, breadth confirmed via materials/EM/momentum. But gold breakdown and energy weakness flag underlying cross-currents.
Leaders MTUM (+19.7% 30D, RSI 66), EEM (+15.1% 30D), IWM (+14.3% 30D), MTUM (RSI 66), SMH (+10.9% 7D, RSI 70), XLB (+6.1% 30D, RSI 66)
Laggards GLD (-14.9% 3M, RSI 40), UNG (-12.5% 30D, RSI 36), VXX (-15.9% 7D, RSI 39), XLP (-3.5% 30D, RSI 43), XLE (-5.5% 7D, RSI 39)
Key insight Gold has cracked. GLD -14.9% 3M, -17.2% from 52wk high, RSI 40, below SMA50. The "complacency" thesis is now visible in the gold tape. Either geopolitical premium fully unwound or this is the largest non-confirming signal on the dashboard.

Broad Market

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SPY $690.97 +4.8% +3.6% +0.4% 66.1 +4.7% strong-up 🟠 Near ATH (-2.7%), strong momentum, golden cross intact
QQQ $637.40 +3.9% +6.3% +2.7% 70.8 ↑ +7.5% strong-up 🟠 Tech ripping — RSI 71, 0.04% from ATH
DIA $491.42 -1.0% +8.8% +0.6% 62.5 +1.9% strong-up 🟠 Dow holding 30D gains, 7D pause
IWM $273.91 -0.9% +14.3% +4.2% 63.2 +3.0% strong-up 🟠 Small caps absorbed 30D ramp, 7D consolidating
VTI $338.67 +3.1% +3.1% -0.4% 63.7 +4.2% strong-up 🟠 Total market participating, golden cross

Sectors (All 11 XL* ETFs)

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XLK $145.61 +4.4% +5.1% +0.8% 65.1 +6.3% strong-up 🟠 Tech still leading sector tape
XLF $51.66 +1.7% +5.3% -4.1% 62.4 +4.3% weak-up 🟡 Death cross intact — financials recovering, not cleared
XLE $55.81 -5.5% -3.0% +16.9% 38.9 ↓ -5.9% weak-down 🟡 Energy approaching oversold while 3M still strong — divergent
XLV $147.97 +0.3% -1.6% -5.9% 47.7 +0.9% weak-down 🟡 Healthcare a flat-liner — no defensive bid
XLI $172.73 +4.7% +4.3% +5.5% 61.7 +4.8% strong-up 🟠 Industrials confirming infrastructure bid
XLU $46.39 +1.2% -1.2% +8.2% 53.7 +0.8% strong-up 🟡 Utilities flat 30D — data center power thesis still pricing in 3M
XLP $81.55 +0.05% -3.5% -0.3% 42.7 -0.6% weak-down 🟡 Staples weakest — defensive rotation absent
XLY $113.92 +3.8% +1.7% -6.6% 56.9 +3.7% weak-up 🟡 Consumer disc bouncing but death cross still in
XLB $52.19 +3.7% +6.1% +7.5% 65.6 +5.2% strong-up 🟠 Materials breaking out — copper + global infra
XLRE $43.02 +2.4% +1.7% +4.7% 65.4 +3.9% strong-up 🟠 Real estate strong — data center REIT bid intact
XLC $114.82 +1.7% -0.1% -1.3% 57.3 +2.5% strong-up 🟡 Comm services flat 30D — Mag7 mixed

International

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
EFA $100.96 -1.6% +7.3% -0.7% 50.5 -0.4% strong-up 🟡 Developed markets pausing 7D after 30D run
EEM $62.99 +0.6% +15.1% +4.2% 59.7 +3.3% strong-up 🟠 EM still ripping — dollar weakness + commodity lift
VWO $57.18 +4.7% +3.9% +2.0% 62.7 +5.2% strong-up 🟠 EM ETF confirming rotation
FXI $36.25 -2.7% +3.6% -11.1% 45.4 -0.7% strong-down 🟡 China death cross + tariff overhang — lagging EM peers
EWJ $87.56 -0.7% +7.4% +1.7% 51.6 -0.1% strong-up 🟡 Japan flat near SMA20 — yen risk in focus

Bonds

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
TLT $86.75 -0.3% -0.1% -0.7% 49.2 +0.4% weak-down 🟡 Long bonds flat — no flight to safety bid
IEF $95.25 -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% 47.1 -0.2% weak-down 🟡 Intermediate bonds sideways
HYG $80.40 -0.02% +2.5% +0.7% 57.1 +0.3% strong-up 🟠 High yield holding — credit confirms risk-on
LQD $109.34 -0.6% +1.4% -0.1% 50.1 -0.1% weak-down 🟡 IG credit stable, no stress
BND $73.72 -0.2% +0.7% +0.2% 50.2 0.0% weak-down 🟡 Broad bonds quiet — not a fear trade

Commodities

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
GLD $421.91 -1.9% +1.8% -14.9% 40.4 ↓ -3.0% weak-down 🔴 Gold cracking — -17.2% from ATH, below SMA20 + SMA50
SLV $68.28 +4.7% -6.8% -19.3% 48.5 +3.0% weak-down 🟡 Silver bouncing 7D after 3M wreck
USO $124.50 -10.0% +8.2% +71.5% 55.2 +0.2% strong-up 🟡 Oil parabolic 3M, digesting 7D — geopolitical premium fading?
COPX $78.69 -4.2% +11.2% -16.5% 43.7 -4.1% weak-down 🟡 Copper miners pulling back — 7D + 3M weakness
UNG $10.68 -5.4% -12.5% +4.3% 36.1 ↓ -8.7% strong-down 🔴 Nat gas in structural decline — death cross, -44% from ATH

Volatility

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VIXY $28.62 -8.7% -8.7% +9.0% 40.9 -13.5% strong-down 🟢 Vol collapsing — peak complacency
VXX $28.86 -15.9% -11.1% +6.4% 39.2 -15.2% strong-down 🟢 VXX -16% 7D — full resolution priced

Factors

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
VUG $467.36 +3.8% +2.7% -3.6% 62.5 +4.9% weak-up 🟡 Growth holding — death cross still in
VTV $202.61 +1.9% +2.5% +3.1% 61.4 +2.8% strong-up 🟠 Value participating — broad-based rally
MTUM $276.21 +2.5% +19.7% +5.9% 65.7 +4.2% strong-up 🟠 Momentum +19.7% 30D — defining factor of cycle
QUAL $204.37 +2.4% +4.0% +0.7% 65.6 +4.9% strong-up 🟠 Quality healthy — earnings quality rewarded
RSP $198.83 +1.6% +2.4% +0.5% 59.6 +2.9% strong-up 🟠 Equal weight rising — breadth is real

Additional Benchmarks

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
SMH $443.34 +10.9% +12.5% +14.2% 69.6 ↑ +11.3% strong-up 🟠 Semis at 52wk high (-0.07%) — RSI 70, parabolic
XBI $132.05 -0.3% +6.6% +4.1% 61.3 +5.4% strong-up 🟠 Biotech quietly strong, near ATH

Housing

Stock Price 7D% 30D% 3M% RSI vs SMA20 Trend Signal
XHB $105.53 +5.8% +4.1% -7.1% 56.7 +5.8% strong-down 🟡 Bouncing but death cross intact
ITB $97.92 -3.1% +11.2% -5.2% 54.4 +2.6% weak-up 🟡 Homebuilders 7D fade after 30D pop — death cross risk

Sector Rotation Table

Group 30D% Leader 30D% Laggard Read
Cyclicals XLB +6.1%, XLI +4.3% XLY +1.7% Materials/industrials > consumer disc — supports infrastructure bid
Defensives XLU -1.2% XLP -3.5%, XLV -1.6% All 3 defensives in red 30D — pure risk-on signal
Tech XLK +5.1%, SMH +12.5% XLC -0.1% Hardware > comm services — chips and semis driving the tape
Style MTUM +19.7%, VTV +2.5% VUG +2.7% Momentum + value > growth — earnings quality rewarded
Geo EEM +15.1%, EFA +7.3% FXI +3.6% EM (ex-China) is the stealth winner — dollar weakness trade
Commodities USO +8.2%, SLV bounce UNG -12.5%, GLD -14.9% 3M Oil/silver bid, gold/nat-gas crushed — bifurcation

Tier Analysis

Overbought / Approaching Overbought (RSI 65+)

  • QQQ (RSI 70.8) — tech overbought, 0.04% from ATH. Don't chase.
  • SMH (RSI 69.6, +10.9% 7D) — semis at 52wk high. Most extended single signal.
  • MTUM (RSI 65.7, +19.7% 30D) — momentum factor defining cycle.
  • XLB (RSI 65.6), QUAL (RSI 65.6), XLRE (RSI 65.4), XLK (RSI 65.1) — sector/factor extension.

Neutral (RSI 45-65)

  • SPY (RSI 66.1) — just over threshold, not euphoric.
  • EEM (RSI 59.7), VWO (RSI 62.7) — EM healthy.
  • HYG (RSI 57.1) — credit healthy, no stress.
  • USO (RSI 55.2) — oil consolidating post-parabolic.
  • EFA (RSI 50.5), EWJ (RSI 51.6) — international flat.

Approaching Oversold (RSI < 45)

  • XLE (RSI 38.9, -5.9% vs SMA20) — energy oversold while USO 3M still +71%.
  • GLD (RSI 40.4, -3% vs SMA20, -14.9% 3M) — gold breakdown deepening.
  • VXX/VIXY (RSI 39-41) — vol products at floor. Complacency entrenched.
  • XLP (RSI 42.7) — defensive staples abandoned.
  • COPX (RSI 43.7) — copper miners weakening 7D + 3M.
  • UNG (RSI 36.1) — nat gas in structural decline.
  • FXI (RSI 45.4) — China weakest international.

Entry Zones

Stock Current Entry Zone RSI 30D% Action Thesis
GLD $421.91 $415-425 40.4 ↓ +1.8% 📈 Accumulate RSI 40, below SMA50, -14.9% 3M. Contrarian entry against equity complacency. Gold ignoring stress = either premium gone or buy opportunity.
XLE $55.81 $53-57 38.9 ↓ -3.0% 📈 Accumulate RSI 39, oversold while USO +71% 3M. Sector lagging commodity — catch-up trade.
USO $124.50 $115-125 55.2 +8.2% 🔍 Watch Oil parabolic 3M, -10% 7D consolidation. Let digestion finish.
TLT $86.75 $85-88 49.2 -0.1% ⏳ Waiting Bonds flat while equities rip — tail-risk hedge cheap here. Alert at $90.
FXI $36.25 — 45.4 +3.6% 🔍 Watch China death cross + tariff risk. Wait for thesis change.
UNG $10.68 — 36.1 ↓ -12.5% ❌ Don't Buy Strong-down, no catalyst, -44% from ATH.
XHB $105.53 $100-106 56.7 +4.1% 🔍 Watch Death cross intact. Wait for SMA200 reclaim.

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
SMH 🟠 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 70, +10.9% 7D, at ATH — don't chase semis
QQQ 🟠 🔒 Hold RSI 71 — core position, don't add at ATH
MTUM 🟠 🔒 Hold RSI 66, +19.7% 30D — ride momentum factor with trailing stop
IWM 🟠 🔒 Hold RSI 63 — small caps healthy after big 30D move
XLE 🟡 📈 Accumulate RSI 39 oversold while oil +71% 3M — catch-up trade
EEM 🟠 📈 Accumulate +15.1% 30D, RSI 60 — EM stealth winner, dollar weakness
GLD 🔴 📈 Accumulate RSI 40, -14.9% 3M — contrarian vs complacency. The non-confirming signal.
VXX 🟢 ⚠️ Avoid -15.9% 7D, RSI 39 — don't buy collapsing vol
UNG 🔴 ❌ Don't Buy Structural decline, -44% from ATH
XLP 🟡 ❌ Don't Buy Defensive trade is dead
TLT 🟡 ⏳ Waiting Flat RSI 49 — tail-risk hedge alert at $90
FXI 🔴 🔍 Watch Strong-down, tariff overhang

Cross-Group Analysis

What the macro dashboard is telling us on 2026-04-28:

  1. Risk-on rally continues — broader than ever. SPY +4.8% 7D, IWM +14.3% 30D, EEM +15.1% 30D, MTUM +19.7% 30D. Equal-weight RSP +2.4% 30D. Breadth confirms this is a real move, not narrow.

  2. Semis are the defining single trade. SMH +10.9% 7D, RSI 70, at the 52wk high (-0.07% from ATH). +27.3% above SMA200. This is the AI compute arms race expressed in ETF form. Risk is positioning, not thesis.

  3. Momentum factor blew out to +19.7% 30D. MTUM RSI 66, but the 30D return is the highest dashboard reading. This is a sustained trend — trend-followers add fuel, breakouts get bid, it self-reinforces until vol returns.

  4. Gold has cracked. GLD -14.9% 3M, RSI 40, below SMA20 and SMA50, -17.2% from 52wk high. This is the most important bearish signal on the dashboard. Either macro stress is gone (equities right) or gold is the contrarian buy (gold right). Both can't last.

  5. Energy bifurcation deepening. USO +71.5% 3M but XLE -3% 30D and -5.5% 7D. The commodity move has not transmitted to producers. RSI 38.9 on XLE = catch-up trade or breakdown confirmation.

  6. Vol collapse continues. VXX -15.9% 7D, RSI 39, -15.2% below SMA20. Market pricing total resolution of geopolitical risk. The combination of crashing vol + crashing gold is the textbook complacency signature.

  7. Defensives abandoned. All three defensives red 30D: XLP -3.5%, XLU -1.2%, XLV -1.6%. No rotation to safety. Pure risk-on stance.

  8. EM ex-China is the stealth winner. EEM +15.1% 30D vs FXI +3.6% (China lagging). Dollar weakness is structural tailwind for EM ex-China.

  9. Bonds are the silent flat-liner. TLT, IEF, BND all roughly flat 30D, RSI 47-50. Not a fear trade, not a recovery trade. Pure inertia.

What Changed vs 2026-04-26

Two days later, most numbers consolidated rather than extended:

  • MTUM stepped up further — 30D return moved from +13.6% to +19.7%. The momentum factor is the standout.
  • IWM 30D extended from +9.9% to +14.3% (small cap accumulation continues), but 7D went from +0.1% to -0.9% — the 30D ramp is digesting.
  • GLD deteriorated — RSI fell from 47.2 to 40.4, 3M from -6.8% to -14.9%, now -17.2% from ATH. The non-confirming signal got louder.
  • EEM extended from +11% to +15.1% 30D — EM rotation is still working.
  • Most other readings sideways — SPY/QQQ/SMH essentially unchanged in two days. The market consolidated at extreme levels rather than reversing.

The macro story is unchanged but louder: the dashboard is screaming "risk-on, vol crushed, gold breaking, EM winning, momentum the dominant factor." Each of those signals strengthened over 48 hours. The contrarian trade is GLD + XLE + TLT; the trend trade is MTUM + SMH + EEM. Pick your battle.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
GLD broke SMA50 with RSI 40 Either complacency right (equities) or contrarian opportunity in gold — biggest cross-current signal
MTUM +19.7% 30D Momentum factor at cycle high — trend-following is working, ride with trailing stop
EEM +15.1% 30D vs FXI +3.6% EM ex-China is the stealth winner — dollar weakness without China beta
XLE RSI 39 vs USO +71.5% 3M Energy producers lagging commodity — either catch-up trade or oil topping

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Chasing SMH at RSI 70 At-the-high entries on parabolic semis = poor risk/reward
Buying VXX during -15% week Don't catch falling vol — wait for capitulation low

Open Questions

  • Is GLD breakdown signaling end of geopolitical premium or contrarian buy?
  • Will XLE catch up to USO, or will USO roll over to XLE level?
  • How long can MTUM sustain +20% monthly returns before mean reversion?
  • Is the IWM 7D fade a healthy consolidation or end of the small-cap surge?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Apr 13 ScanMarket Pulse Scan May 29 ScanMarket Pulse Scan Mar 26 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 20 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 12 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 11 ScanMarket Pulse Mar 10 ScanMarket Pulse — Full Macro Dashboard Jun 16 ScanMarket Pulse Jun 20 ScanMarket Pulse — 2026 06 20 (Macro Dashboard)

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