Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness

perspective

Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness

status active priority high thesis tickers 9 scan-mentioned tickers 210 events 90 latest

Memory is in a structural tightness cycle, not a normal trough-to-trough one. Independent of any strike: TrendForce Q2 2026 contract prices DRAM +58-63% / NAND +70-75% QoQ (after ~95% Q1 jumps); an IDC-sized supply deficit DRAM 4.9% / NAND 4.2% / HBM 5.1%, worst since ~2011; HBM ~23% of DRAM wafers; new fab capacity not in volume before late 2027/2028. The Samsung NSEU 18-day strike (from 2026-05-21, ~45k workers, talks collapsed 2026-05-12) is a verified transient catalyst layered on top — bullish for competitor pricing near term, but a bonus-formula dispute that could settle fast; logged in log.md as a dated event, NOT as the thesis. Cohort strong-up but uniformly 7d red as of 2026-05-18 — no Samsung-strike rotation pop into MU; the complex sold off with the KOSPI. Late on the trade, mid-cycle on the thesis. Born 2026-05-19 from the verified memory supply-shock research note.

Watch for: Samsung NSEU strike actually starting 2026-05-21 + post-2026-06-07 mediation (fast settlement kills the strike angle, not the thesis), memory-vs-foundry line split during the strike (April test: memory -18% / foundry -58%), MU outperformance vs Samsung 005930.KS during the strike window (the competitor-pricing mechanism test — absent so far), spot DRAM/NAND price reaction after 2026-05-21, whether the cohort's 7-day pullback resolves up or breaks trend, MU / SK Hynix quarterly prints (citation of record for the contract-price thesis)

cycle3d agoas of
paradigm track record untested — no scored verdicts · low confidence · n=0 cycle

The thesis basket — the 9 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

MU $1,011.75 +19.2% 30d coming into play SNDK $1,786.85 +31.9% 30d coming into play STX $994.79 +26.3% 30d coming into play WDC $536.01 +12.3% 30d coming into play DRAM $60.39 +14.6% 30d too-young DISK $41.29 +21.2% 30d too-young HY9H.F $1,065.00 +4.9% 30d coming into play EWY $185.10 +13.9% 30d coming into play SIMO $272.70 +3.4% 30d coming into play
Seen alongside in scans (39 shown of 202) — symbols that appear with this perspective, not the thesis basket
005930.KS $284,500.00 +11.6% 30d coming into play AAL $14.43 -3.7% 30d coming into play AAPL $305.59 -8.4% 30d coming into play ABBV $250.33 -1.6% 30d in trend ACLS $144.11 +5.6% 30d coming into play ADBE $254.04 +7.1% 30d retreating AEHR $145.61 +79.7% 30d in trend ALAB $320.17 +5.5% 30d coming into play AMAT $535.31 +1.1% 30d coming into play AMD $506.00 +2.1% 30d coming into play AMKR $61.30 -2.6% 30d coming into play AMZN $261.31 +5.7% 30d in trend AOSL $31.07 -0.6% 30d coming into play APLD $31.18 +20.9% 30d retreating ARM $271.43 +1.6% 30d coming into play ARQQ $24.35 +39.8% 30d coming into play ASHR $35.20 +4.7% 30d coming into play ASML $1,883.12 +7.9% 30d in trend ASTS $71.14 +23.1% 30d retreating ASX $39.91 +3.9% 30d coming into play ATEYY $237.44 +33.4% 30d in trend AVGO $392.43 +5.8% 30d coming into play BABA $124.71 +8.5% 30d retreating BE $232.16 +8.0% 30d coming into play BEAM $27.10 -1.6% 30d coming into play BESIY $274.40 +6.2% 30d coming into play BOTZ $37.82 +9.9% 30d in trend BRBR $10.18 -16.0% 30d retreating BRUN $22.63 -7.3% 30d coming into play BST $50.08 +11.6% 30d coming into play BSTZ $31.71 +15.0% 30d coming into play BUFR $37.36 +2.2% 30d in trend BUG $41.89 +2.5% 30d in trend BWXT $171.54 +0.2% 30d retreating CAMT $171.80 +17.6% 30d coming into play CAT $881.65 +0.3% 30d coming into play
Show all 202 ticker links
$000660.KS$005930.KS$AAL$AAPL$ABBV$ACLS$ADBE$AEHR$ALAB$AMAT$AMD$AMKR$AMZN$AOSL$APLD$ARM$ARQQ$ASHR$ASML$ASTS$ASX$ATEYY$AVGO$BABA$BE$BEAM$BESI$BESIY$BIGB$BOTZ$BRBR$BRUN$BST$BSTZ$BUFR$BUG$BWXT$CAMT$CAT$CCJ$CEG$CGNX$CHAT$CIFR$CLSK$COHR$COP$COPX$CORZ$CRDO$CRL$CRM$CROX$CRWD$CRWV$CVX$DAL$DD$DELL$DHR$DIA$DIVO$DPZ$DUK$ECHO$ENTG$EQT$EWT$FBTC$FN$FORM$FTNT$FTRE$FXI$GBTC$GE$GEV$GLD$GLW$GOOGL$HACK$HAL$HIMS$HPE$HQ$HUMN$HUT$HWM$IBIT$ICHR$IFNNY$IGV$INTC$IONQ$IQV$IREN$ISRG$IWM$JCI$JEPI$JEPQ$JETS$KLAC$KLIC$KMI$KWEB$KYMR$LABU$LDOS$LEU$LIT$LITE$LPK.DE$LRCX$LULU$LUNR$MA$MAGS$MARA$MCHP$MEDP$META$MKSI$MP$MPWR$MRNA$MRVL$MSFT$MSTR$MSTU$MSTX$MSTY$MTUM$NBIS$NKE$NLR$NOW$NTAP$NUKZ$NVDA$NVDL$NVDY$OIH$OKLO$OKTA$ONTO$ORCL$PANW$PDI$PLTR$PSIX$QQQ$QYLD$RAM$RIOT$RKLB$RMBS$ROBO$RSP$SAIC$SBUX$SEI$SKHY$SLB$SLV$SMCI$SMH$SMR$SPCX$SPGI$SPY$TER$TLT$TMO$TSEM$TSLA$TSLL$TSLY$TSM$TWST$TXG$UBER$UNH$URNM$USO$UUP$VICR$VIXY$VPG$VRT$VST$VTI$VTV$WGMI$WULF$XBI$XLC$XLE$XLI$XLK$XOM$ZS
no live data (3) — unresolved, delisted, or non-US symbols
$000660.KS$BESI$BIGB

Desk commentary

Authored analysis and challenge notes tied to Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness.

3

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

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Signals

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Research

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Captures

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Calendar & Lifecycle

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