Source

Cleanest per-index forced-flow mechanism breakdown found. SpotGamma Research lays out how the index rule changes force SPY/QQQ/IWM funds to sell holdings proportionally to fund a new SpaceX weight.

Key claims (author's model):

• SPCX, Nasdaq, $1.5–2T, 3–5% float ($45–100B tradable), Q1'26 GAAP loss ~−$4.28B, 2025 revenue ~$18.7B.
• Forced buying estimates: S&P 500 (SPY/VOO/IVV) ~$8–12B conservative, up to ~$200B aggressive; QQQ ~$7B+ single-day; Russell 1000 weight 0.08–0.24%.
• Mechanism: index funds "calculate target weight → sell every holding proportionally." Frames a dealer-hedging / options setup around the event.
• Dates: Nasdaq 15-day fast-entry effective May 1; NDX inclusion late-June / early-July; S&P Q4'26–Q1'27; Russell Sept/Dec reconstitution.

Lane use: the per-index plumbing receipt for the passive-flow-bid and liquidity-drain hypotheses. The float and forced-buying figures are modeled off press valuations; the S-1/A offering size is still blank, so all dollar magnitudes are estimates pending the priced deal.