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Previous version: [2026-03-31-iran-war-oil.md]

Status: ACTIVE — Oil now overbought at $138; war premium spreading to all asset classes

Narrative arc: Escalation → Approaching blow-off top

Oil just crossed into overbought territory. USO at $137.92 with RSI 72.1 — up another 8.3% from the March 31 "Rubio new worry" level of $127. This is no longer just an energy trade. The war premium is now showing up everywhere: housing still distressed (ITB RSI 37), India crushed (INDA RSI 38), tech still in recovery mode (MSFT RSI 40 from a low of 11). But here's the twist — the energy producers themselves are COOLING. COP RSI dropped from 79→66. OXY from 76→65. The commodity is running while the stocks consolidate. That's either a healthy reset before the next leg, or the stocks are telling you the commodity is about to stall.

The week brought one genuinely new signal: oil services names (SLB, HAL) are pulling back while crude runs. SLB -6.7% on the week, HAL +3.7%. When services lag, it sometimes means the physical market is getting ahead of the capacity to produce at these levels. That could mean oil stays elevated longer than expected — or it means the market is starting to price in demand destruction at $100+ crude.

What Changed Since March 31