Source

March 26, 2026

Status: ACTIVE — Scenario planning (trigger: ceasefire / Hormuz reopening / oil < $85)

This is NOT a prediction that the war is ending. This is a playbook — a pre-positioned framework for when it does. The friend's question was "where do I put oil profits to work when Trump decides the war is over?" This document answers that across every sector, not just tech.

Base case for this scenario: Iran ceasefire or de-escalation → Strait of Hormuz reopens → oil drops from ~$118 (USO) toward $70-80 over 4-8 weeks → inflation expectations collapse → rate cut narrative returns → dollar weakens.

Cross-references:

• Current war thesis: [research/perspectives/2026-03-24-iran-war-oil.md]
• Gold crash analysis: [research/perspectives/2026-03-24-gold-crash.md]
• DELL deep dive: [research/deep-dives/2026-03-26-DELL.md]
• IBM deep dive: [research/deep-dives/2026-03-26-IBM.md]
• NTR deep dive: [research/deep-dives/2026-03-25-NTR.md]

Section 1: The War Distortion — Current Snapshot (March 26, 2026)

This table shows how distorted each asset class is RIGHT NOW because of the war. The bigger the distortion, the bigger the snap-back (or correction) when the war ends.