Oil parabolic and approaching overbought (USO RSI 75.2, XOP RSI 79.4). E&P names (XOM, CVX, OXY, COP, EOG, DVN) all strong-up with RSIs 69-79. Gold (GLD RSI 30.8) and miners (GDX RSI 25.5) crashing — safe-haven rotation NOT happening as expected. TLT bonds weak RSI 35.8. DFEN defense ETF crushed -26.3% 30D at RSI 31.8. The geopolitical trade is entirely in energy — other crisis hedges are failing.

• Every E&P name is 22-37% above SMA200 and in the RSI 69-78 zone. This is the most extended the upstream sector has been in the scan history. All have golden crosses.
• OXY is the standout at +52% in 3 months — Buffett's bet is running hot. The RSI 76.5 and +37% vs SMA200 signals extreme extension.
• The collective 3M move of +35-52% across all names means the geopolitical energy premium is heavily embedded. Any peace signal or OPEC supply increase would cause a violent reversal.
• Services divergence: SLB (RSI 46.6) and HAL (RSI 61.5) are notably cooler than the upstream names. Services stocks typically lag upstream in supply shocks and may offer a less-extended entry into the energy trade.

• SLB's -8% 30D while upstream ran +10-18% is the classic services lag — upstream profit flows through to services demand with a delay.
• HAL is outperforming SLB with RSI 61.5, +39% above SMA200, and a more domestically-focused shale services book that benefits from US production ramp.

• XOP (exploration/production ETF) at RSI 79.4 is the most overbought ETF in the entire geopolitical watchlist. +41.6% 3M with RSI approaching 80 = don't chase.
• XLE (broader energy sector ETF) at RSI 77.2 is in the same territory. Both XLE and XOP are at or near 52-week highs.
• USO (crude oil futures) at RSI 75.2 and +60.8% above SMA200 is the most extreme reading. But it's cooling from last week's 85+ RSI — the deceleration itself is worth watching.
• OIH (oil services ETF) at RSI 56.3 is the only energy ETF not overbought. This is the relative entry opportunity if you want energy exposure without maximum extension risk.

• Gold is failing as a crisis hedge — this is one of the most important signals in this entire scan. In a normal geopolitical risk-off environment, gold should be flying. Instead, GLD has lost -10.9% in 30 days while oil surged +51.6%.
• The gold miner capitulation (GDX RSI 25.5, -25.5% 30D) is even more extreme. Miners are forward-looking and their collapse may signal that smart money sees the energy spike as temporary and deflationary downstream.
• Bonds (TLT) are also NOT acting as a safe haven — RSI 35.8 and -3.7% 30D. The inflation + fiscal deficit combination is keeping rates elevated even during a risk-off episode.
• The only safe haven working is the US Dollar (UUP RSI 59.6, +2.1% 30D). Dollar strength in a geopolitical crisis is unusual — it suggests US-specific energy production benefits (petrodollar reinforcement) rather than pure safe-haven demand.

• Defense names are consolidating after the Q1 run — see 2026-03-20-defense-contractors for full analysis.
• DFEN (-26.3% 30D) is the leveraged destruction case — the underlying defense sector is down only ~7% from recent highs but 3x leverage turns that into a -21% move before fees and rebalancing drag.

These are the assets being sold in the current environment — either as risk-off selling or because the crisis directly hurts them:

• The crisis losers reveal the transmission mechanism: energy-importing economies (India, Germany, Europe broadly) are getting crushed. Housing (US domestic) is caught in the rate/inflation squeeze.
• This is not a "flight to quality" risk-off episode where bonds and gold go up — it's an inflationary supply shock where energy wins and almost everything else loses.

• Stay long: XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, OXY (but reduce at RSI 78+)
• Accumulate: OIH (services laggard), HAL (US shale exposed)
• Avoid: European equities (VGK, EWG) — energy import cost destroys margins
• Avoid: Housing (XHB, ITB) — rate/inflation squeeze deepens
• Watch: DBA, CORN, WEAT — food inflation follows energy, agriculture keeps climbing

• Buy: GDX, SIL (miners at RSI 25-27 = extreme tactical oversold, would rip on oil fade)
• Buy: ITB, XHB (housing recovers when inflation/rate pressure eases)
• Buy: COPX (copper reflects industrial recovery, not just energy)
• Reduce: XOM, CVX, OXY, COP (sell the news, not the event)
• Watch: INDA (would bounce sharply from RSI 19.4 if oil eases — India's #1 headwind is oil imports)

• All defense names reprice 20-40% higher: LMT, RTX, NOC, LHX
• Semiconductors at risk: TSM (Taiwan supply chain), AMAT, ASML
• Safe havens actually work: Gold, TLT, UUP
• Energy spikes further

GDX at RSI 25.5 is the highest-conviction contrarian setup. If oil fades, gold recovers, miners rip 30-50% from these levels given 1Y return of +79%. The risk: if oil keeps climbing and gold correlation breaks further, GDX could fall to RSI 20 first.

• Is gold failing because the crisis isn't a financial/monetary crisis (which gold hedges) but an energy supply crisis (which oil hedges)?
• Does the miner collapse (GDX/SIL) lead gold lower, or is it a temporary dislocation that resolves with miners catching up?
• At what oil price does OPEC start increasing supply or US shale production overwhelms geopolitical premium?
• If India (INDA RSI 19.4) bounces, is it the first sign of EM recovery or a dead cat?