Geopolitical Risk Scan

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Geopolitical Risk Scan

Scan symbols 18
BACOPCVXDFENDVNEOGGDXGLDHALLMTNOCOIHOXYSLBUSOXLEXOMXOP
Watchlists 1
@geopolitical-risk
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 31 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-geopolitical-riskported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-24-geopolitical-risk.mdscan sluggeopolitical-risksource typescan-archive

Oil producers dominating: CVX RSI 78, EOG RSI 77, OXY RSI 77, COP RSI 76, XOP RSI 79 — energy is THE crisis trade. Defense pulling back. Gold failing as safe haven (RSI 29, -14.5% 30D). Dollar strong. Bonds NOT providing safety. Classic stagflation playbook.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 CRISIS MODE — Oil producers surging, safe havens failing, everything else selling
Leaders XOP ($177.38, RSI 79↑), CVX ($203.22, RSI 78↑), EOG ($139.31, RSI 77↑), OXY ($60.91, RSI 77↑)
Laggards GDX ($79.20, RSI 26↓), GLD ($405.63, RSI 29↓), BA ($193.91, RSI 28↓)

Oil Producers (SURGING)

Stock Price RSI vs SMA200 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal
XOP E&P $177.38 79 ↑ +33.5% +4.8% +16.8% +41.6% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
CVX $203.22 78 ↑ +29.5% +2.9% +10.5% +37.0% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
EOG $139.31 77 ↑ +22.5% +4.0% +13.2% +36.0% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
OXY $60.91 77 ↑ +37.1% +3.7% +18.0% +52.0% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
COP $126.78 76 ↑ +33.1% +4.7% +14.7% +36.9% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
DVN $48.89 74 ↑ +36.0% +6.3% +10.7% +34.9% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
XOM $160.76 69 +34.3% +2.5% +9.2% +37.0% strong-up ✨ 🟠 Near Overbought
USO $114.83 63 +49.9% -5.8% +42.2% +63.6% strong-up ✨ 🔒 Hold

Oil Services

Stock Price RSI vs SMA200 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal
HAL $36.69 62 +39.0% +8.1% +5.0% +30.8% strong-up ✨ 🔒 Hold
OIH $386.54 56 +35.8% +6.1% -0.8% +35.9% strong-up ✨ 🔒 Hold
SLB $46.78 47 +21.8% +8.3% -8.0% +22.8% weak-down 🟡 Watch

Energy ETFs

ETF Price RSI vs SMA200 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal
XLE $59.63 77 ↑ +29.9% +3.2% +8.7% +34.9% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought
XOP $177.38 79 ↑ +33.5% +4.8% +16.8% +41.6% strong-up ✨ ⚠️ Overbought

Safe Havens (FAILING)

Asset Price RSI 7D% 30D% Status
GLD Gold $405.63 29 ↓ -12.2% -14.5% 🔴 FAILING — crashing in risk-off
SLV Silver $63.22 37 -14.5% -20.1% 🔴 FAILING
GDX Gold Miners $79.20 26 ↓ -13.8% -25.5% 🔴 FAILING
TLT Bonds $85.84 36 +0.6% -3.7% 🟡 NOT WORKING
UUP Dollar $27.67 60 -0.7% +2.1% ✅ WORKING — dollar IS the safe haven

Defense Quick Look

Stock Price RSI 30D% 3M% Signal
LMT $611.26 39 -7.5% +26.5% 🟡 Pulling back from rally
NOC $684.34 39 -6.0% +17.9% 🟡 Pulling back
BA $193.91 28 ↓ -16.4% -10.6% 🟢 Oversold
DFEN $66.44 32 -26.3% -3.0% 🟡 Approaching OS

Crisis Playbook

Strategy Status Notes
Long oil producers ⚠️ LATE RSI 75-79, most overbought — trim, don't add
Long defense 🟡 PULLBACK Correcting after strong run — wait for RSI < 30
Long gold 🔴 BROKEN Gold crashing, do NOT assume safe haven
Long dollar ✅ WORKING UUP strong-up, dollar IS the flight-to-safety
Long bonds 🟡 NOT WORKING TLT not providing safety this time
Short equities 🟡 LATE Bear ETFs already +15-30% 30D

What to Watch

  1. Oil overbought risk: XOP RSI 79, CVX RSI 78 — correction imminent?
  2. Gold bottom: GLD RSI 29 — is forced selling exhausted?
  3. Defense re-entry: Wait for RSI < 35 on LMT/NOC for re-entry
  4. Dollar strength: UUP strong-up = EM pain continues
  5. NatGas divergence: UNG not following oil — supply/demand specific
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Mar 26 ScanGeopolitical Risk Monitor Apr 3 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Mar 11 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan — Iran Crisis Mar 20 ScanGeopolitical Risk Apr 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 10 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan — Iran Crisis Apr 10 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 12 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 31 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan

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