• Every E&P name is up 35-56% in 3 months. OXY is the standout at +56% — Buffett's Permian basin bet is paying off with Iranian supply disruption. The entire group has RSI in the 63-71 range: not at bubble extremes but not cheap either.
• XOM and COP are near their 52-week highs (-4.6% and -4.3% respectively) — the oil trade has nearly fully played out on a price basis. These are "hold if you have them, don't start new positions" setups.
• The risk is a Strait of Hormuz re-opening or ceasefire announcement — any of these names could drop 15-20% in a single session on de-escalation news. Do not chase at these levels.

• Oilfield services are the "boring but profitable" way to play sustained high oil prices. SLB's 30-day performance (+0.41%) significantly lagging the E&P names but the 3-month return (+35%) is comparable — the lagging is the recent consolidation.
• SLB (RSI 58.6) is the best-positioned services name for a longer-running conflict: high oil prices incentivize more drilling, which means more SLB revenue with less commodity price risk. If oil stays elevated, SLB is the lower-beta proxy.
• HAL at RSI 64.6 is getting extended but still has room vs XOM/OXY.

• All three energy ETFs are up 37-43% in 3 months — they've already done the work. RSI 60-67 means they're not at peak exhaustion but the risk/reward for new entries is poor.
• XOP (exploration & production concentrated) shows the highest 30-day return (+13.41%) vs XLE's broader sector exposure (+7.15%). XOP is where the pure-play oil price leverage lives — but it's also the most vulnerable on de-escalation.
• OIH (oilfield services) pulled back -1.32% this week while XLE/XOP gained — this is the services lag that typically represents better entry. OIH at RSI 59.4 is the cleanest setup in the group if you believe oil stays elevated for 6+ months.
• No new long energy positions at current RSI levels. If oil pulls back 10-15% (ceasefire rumors), XLE/XOP in the RSI 40-45 range would be a legitimate entry.

• The safe haven picture is telling a complex story. Gold was supposed to rip on a war — instead it dropped 12.6% in 30 days after an earlier parabolic run. The narrative: gold ran too far, too fast into the conflict; now dollar strength (war = USD flight to safety) is providing the headwind. The weekly recovery (+2.36%) suggests the worst of the flush is done.
• TLT (long bonds) is essentially flat on 3 months (+0.46%) and slightly negative 30 days (-2.98%). Bonds are stuck: war = inflation (oil) = rates stay up = TLT can't rally. But recession risk (demand destruction from $127 oil) keeps rates from spiking dramatically. TLT is in no-man's land.
• UUP (dollar) is the true safe haven in this conflict: +2.81% in 3 months, golden cross intact, RSI 58.5. The dollar is winning the safe-haven competition vs gold. This is unusual and worth watching — if the dollar weakens, gold will rip back hard.
• GLD is the accumulate here. The structural multi-year bull market in gold (+133% over 3 years) is intact. The capitulation from RSI 16 (extreme oversold in prior weeks) to current recovery is a classic re-entry setup. Target: gradual accumulation toward the SMA200 at $377.75 for any deeper dip.

Defense pulled back 10-14% in 30 days despite the active conflict — war premium exhaustion after a 20-25% 3-month run. RSI 38-41 across the board means they're approaching the accumulate zone. For fuller defense analysis see 2026-03-31-defense-contractors.

These assets are being hurt by the Iran conflict:

The unifying theme: Everything that imports energy, needs low rates, or depends on global growth is getting hurt. Housing is particularly exposed — oil-driven inflation keeps mortgage rates elevated, and affordability was already broken before $127 oil.

Weekly monitoring priority: USO daily price and any Strait of Hormuz shipping reports. This is the single variable driving the entire cross-asset landscape. A confirmed closure → escalation playbook. A confirmed reopening → de-escalation playbook.

• Is the Strait of Hormuz actually restricted, or is the disruption risk/premium exceeding actual flow disruption?
• Does $127 oil cause a global recession that ultimately collapses oil demand (and oil prices)?
• Can the Fed credibly hold rates steady when oil is driving CPI higher? (Stagflation trap)
• If Iran conflict drags 6+ months, does India face an actual current account / currency crisis?