Geopolitical Risk
Scan
Geopolitical Risk
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 36 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-geopolitical-riskported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-13-geopolitical-risk.mdscan sluggeopolitical-risksource typescan-archive
Geopolitical risk assets surging: Oil parabolic (USO RSI 85.9, +76.6% 3M). Defense contractors in strong-up (LMT +34.1% 3M, NOC +27.8% 3M). OXY RSI 75.4 (+44.0% 3M). Gold GLD +67.4% 1Y. Dollar strengthening UUP RSI 73.1. Energy producers (XOM, CVX, COP, DVN, EOG) all strong-up. Full geopolitical risk-on posture.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 RISK-ON FOR DEFENSE & ENERGY — Defense contractors, oil producers, and safe havens (gold, dollar) all surging simultaneously. Classic geopolitical crisis positioning. Oil parabolic at RSI 85.9. Every oil producer in strong-up trend with golden cross. |
| Leaders | USO (RSI 85.9, +76.6% 3M), OXY (RSI 75.4, +44.0% 3M), CVX (RSI 73.1, +33.2% 3M), EOG (RSI 71.9, +26.5% 3M) |
| Laggards | BA (RSI 30.2, -13.9% 30D), SLB (RSI 32.9, -11.5% 30D), TLT (RSI 38.7, -2.1% 30D) |
Price Table — Defense
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | $733.48 | 55.3 | $731.60 | +0.3% | +24.6% | -1.5% | +5.0% | +27.8% | 🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
| LHX | $361.43 | 54.2 | $357.56 | +1.1% | +24.2% | -0.4% | +6.7% | +26.4% | 🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
| RTX | $204.51 | 52.5 | $204.19 | +0.2% | +20.8% | -2.0% | +0.8% | +12.7% | 🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
| LMT | $646.10 | 52.4 | $655.71 | -1.5% | +29.9% | -2.0% | 0.0% | +34.1% | 🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
| GD | $351.52 | 46.3 | $354.72 | -0.9% | +7.6% | -1.2% | +2.6% | +3.6% | 🟡 Weak-down |
| BA | $206.10 | 30.2 | $228.97 | -10.0% | -6.0% | -4.0% | -13.9% | +0.8% | 🔴 Down, oversold |
Price Table — Oil Producers
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXY | $58.85 | 75.4 | $51.76 | +13.7% | +34.1% | +2.3% | +30.0% | +44.0% | 🟢 Strong-up, overbought |
| CVX | $197.88 | 73.1 | $186.54 | +6.1% | +27.7% | +2.1% | +9.6% | +33.2% | 🟢 Strong-up, near 52wk high |
| EOG | $135.30 | 71.9 | $125.78 | +7.6% | +19.9% | +1.2% | +14.8% | +26.5% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| XOP | $166.71 | 71.4 | $154.98 | +7.6% | +27.0% | -0.4% | +12.7% | +29.3% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| COP | $120.17 | 67.9 | $113.52 | +5.9% | +27.7% | -0.4% | +9.3% | +26.8% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| DVN | $45.96 | 63.9 | $44.16 | +4.1% | +29.1% | +1.6% | +4.6% | +23.3% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| XOM | $154.19 | 62.3 | $150.29 | +2.6% | +30.7% | +0.6% | +2.8% | +30.6% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| HAL | $35.26 | 55.6 | $34.90 | +1.0% | +36.1% | +5.0% | +3.3% | +23.8% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| XLE | $57.51 | 69.4 | $55.61 | +3.4% | +26.8% | +0.4% | +5.8% | +28.3% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| OIH | $372.47 | 48.2 | $385.76 | -3.4% | +33.2% | +0.8% | -2.3% | +27.7% | 🟢 Strong-up |
| SLB | $44.83 | 32.9 | $49.64 | -9.7% | +17.9% | +1.7% | -11.5% | +14.3% | 🟡 Weak-down |
Price Table — Energy Commodities
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $119.88 | 85.9 | $91.35 | +31.2% | +60.0% | +11.6% | +58.3% | +76.6% | 🔴 Parabolic |
| UNG | $12.64 | 52.6 | $12.09 | +4.6% | -6.6% | +3.9% | +6.2% | +1.4% | 🟡 Weak-up |
Price Table — Safe Havens
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $460.85 | 47.7 | $470.59 | -2.1% | +24.3% | -1.5% | +2.8% | +16.4% | 🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
| SLV | $77.06 | 50.0 | $76.09 | +1.3% | +53.3% | +4.9% | +13.8% | +37.4% | 🟢 Golden cross |
| GDX | $99.64 | 43.8 | $105.69 | -5.7% | +33.1% | -0.5% | +1.4% | +17.2% | 🟢 Golden cross |
| UUP | $27.67 | 73.1 | $27.23 | +1.6% | +3.2% | 0.0% | +3.2% | +2.4% | 🟢 Strong-up, dollar strength |
| TLT | $87.11 | 38.7 | $89.10 | -2.2% | +0.6% | -1.8% | -2.1% | +0.8% | 🟡 Weak-down, bonds flat |
Defense ETFs
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFEN | $76.35 | 39.6 | $87.11 | -12.4% | +24.4% | -4.6% | -3.4% | +27.3% | 🟡 Weak-down (3x leveraged) |
| ITA | $231.60 | 40.9 | $241.10 | -3.9% | +11.2% | -1.5% | -0.4% | +10.6% | 🟡 Weak-down |
| PPA | $174.76 | 44.0 | $179.63 | -2.7% | +12.9% | -1.8% | +0.5% | +13.4% | 🟡 Weak-down |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ AVOID | USO, OXY | RSI 85.9 / 75.4, extremely overbought. Don't chase. |
| 🔒 HOLD | LMT, RTX, NOC, LHX | Strong-up, golden crosses. Core defense positions. |
| 🔒 HOLD | XOM, CVX, COP, DVN, EOG | Strong-up, golden crosses. Energy producers benefiting. |
| 🔒 HOLD | GLD, SLV, GDX | Safe havens working, golden crosses. |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | BA | RSI 30.2, oversold. Contrarian if execution improves. |
| 🔍 WATCH | SLB | RSI 32.9, -11.5% 30D. Oilfield services lagging producers. |
What Changed
Bottom line: Full geopolitical risk-on posture. Every oil producer in strong-up with golden cross. Defense contractors holding strong-up trends. Gold and silver surging as safe havens. Dollar strengthening. Oil is parabolic at RSI 85.9 — the most extreme reading in any scan. This is a classic geopolitical crisis trade.
The Gold
Key Discoveries:
- USO RSI 85.9 is the single most overbought reading across ALL scans — oil supply shock
- OXY +30.0% 30D — fastest-moving oil producer
- SLB RSI 32.9 lagging producers — oilfield services divergence could be opportunity or warning
- Defense + oil + gold + dollar all up together = textbook geopolitical risk trade
- TLT flat despite risk-off — bonds not acting as safe haven (stagflation)
Mistakes to Avoid:
- Don't chase oil at RSI 85.9 — mean reversion risk extreme
- Don't assume geopolitical premium is permanent in oil
- SLB divergence from producers could signal services demand lag
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Mar 11 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan — Iran Crisis Apr 3 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 12 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 10 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan — Iran Crisis Apr 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 10 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 13 ArchiveThe War Perspective Mar 20 ScanGeopolitical Risk Mar 26 ScanGeopolitical Risk Monitor Apr 28 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan No direct external sources are attached to this read.