Geopolitical Risk Scan

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Geopolitical Risk Scan

Scan symbols 26
BACOPCVXDFENDVNEOGGDGDXGLDHALITALHXLMTNOCOIHOXYPPARTXSLBSLVUNGUSOUUPXLEXOMXOP
Watchlists 1
@geopolitical-risk
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 41 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-04-28-geopolitical-risk.mdscan sluggeopolitical-risksource typescan-archive

Crisis trade BIFURCATED — defense primes capitulating (LMT RSI 18, NOC RSI 20), oil services ripping (OIH RSI 72, +9.9% 30D, HAL +5%), gold and TLT flat. The traditional "war trade" isn't working as one block.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Mixed crisis trade — energy services HOT, defense primes COLD, safe havens FLAT
Key insight OIH at RSI 72 + 43.6% above SMA200 reflects supply-side fear (UAE/OPEC), not demand strength
Inflection Defense primes (LMT/NOC RSI 18-20) and oil services (OIH/HAL) moving in opposite directions — market pricing geopolitics as oil shock NOT war

Price Table — Defense

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Action
LMT $512.29 18 ↓ -10.38% -14.41% -17.27% -26.0% down ✅ Strong Buy
RTX $201.41 53.7 +2.36% -2.26% +1.63% -6.1% strong-up 🔒 Hold
NOC $577.82 20 ↓ -7.26% -13.96% -16.64% -25.4% down ✅ Strong Buy
GD $313.68 27.4 ↓ -4.68% -7.53% -9.95% -15.2% down 📈 Accumulate
LHX $324.88 34.4 -6.13% -4.43% -8.43% -14.3% weak-down 📈 Accumulate
BA $230.72 60.4 +3.86% +21.94% -1.42% -9.3% up 🔍 Watch
ITA $216.21 37.4 -4.77% +2.57% -7.06% -13.7% weak-down 🔍 Watch
PPA $176.53 55.1 +0.99% +0.72% -2.35% -5.2% strong-up 🔒 Hold
DFEN $59.50 36.4 -14.22% +4.85% -25.44% -39.1% down ⚠️ Caution

Price Table — Oil Producers & Services

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Action
XOM $152.64 41.9 -5.10% -2.92% +18.01% -13.5% weak-down 🔍 Watch
CVX $188.36 47.1 +1.15% -10.61% +11.11% -12.3% weak-down 🔍 Watch
OXY $58.61 53.3 +4.30% -11.52% +29.64% -13.1% strong-up 🔒 Hold
COP $124.32 53.5 +3.90% -6.45% +21.87% -8.5% strong-up 🔒 Hold
SLB $51.92 57.8 +5.08% +15.48% +11.20% -5.3% strong-up 🔒 Hold
HAL $40.81 65.2 +5.05% +3.95% +22.81% -0.9% strong-up 🔒 Hold
DVN $49.48 60.9 +7.76% -3.96% +24.54% -6.1% strong-up 🔒 Hold
EOG $135.78 53.2 +2.31% -8.71% +22.08% -10.6% strong-up 🔒 Hold

Price Table — Energy ETFs

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Action
USO $124.50 55.2 -9.98% +8.23% +71.46% -11.4% strong-up 🔒 Hold
UNG $10.68 36.1 -5.36% -12.53% +4.30% -44.1% strong-down ❌ Avoid
XLE $55.81 38.9 -5.52% -2.97% +16.88% -10.3% weak-down 🔍 Watch
OIH $441.60 72 ↑ +7.74% +9.88% +26.17% -1.4% strong-up ⚠️ Overbought
XOP $168.69 47.3 -4.59% +1.19% +28.37% -11.4% strong-up 🔒 Hold

Price Table — Safe Havens & Currency

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi Trend Action
GLD $421.91 40.4 -1.95% +1.77% -14.92% -17.2% weak-down 🔍 Watch
SLV $68.28 48.5 +4.70% -6.75% -19.25% -37.8% weak-down 🔍 Watch
GDX $88.54 39.6 -4.85% +3.21% -18.00% -24.4% weak-down 🔍 Watch
UUP $27.38 41.6 -1.26% -1.26% +0.18% -3.8% strong-up 🔍 Watch
TLT $86.75 49.2 -0.28% -0.13% -0.69% -5.9% weak-down 🔍 Watch

Tier Analysis

Capitulation tier — defense primes: LMT (18), NOC (20), GD (27). Sector-wide de-rating despite "should-be-bullish" geopolitical week. Either positioning got flushed or market doesn't believe the supply-shock leads to procurement upside.

Hot tier — oil services: OIH (RSI 72, +43.6% above SMA200), HAL (RSI 65), DVN (RSI 61), SLB (RSI 58). The supply-side trade is alive — services and majors with international exposure rallying as Mideast supply risk priced in.

Neutral safe-havens: GLD/SLV/GDX RSI 40-49 — gold trade digesting after big run, NOT making new highs on this geopolitical event. TLT flat (RSI 49).

Broken: UNG -44% from high (gas oversupply), XLE/XOM weak-down (cracks under the surface of ETF strength — services are the alpha pocket).

Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI 30D% Setup
LMT $512.29 <$520 18 ↓ -14.4% Capitulation, SMA200 support
NOC $577.82 <$600 20 ↓ -14.0% Capitulation, golden cross intact
GD $313.68 <$320 27.4 -7.5% Oversold, near SMA200
GLD $421.91 <$425 40.4 +1.8% Pullback in uptrend
GDX $88.54 <$90 39.6 +3.2% Miners cooling, golden cross

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
✅ STRONG BUY LMT, NOC RSI 18-20 capitulation, structural thesis intact
📈 ACCUMULATE GD, LHX, GLD, GDX Oversold pullbacks in uptrends
🔒 HOLD RTX, PPA, OXY, COP, SLB, HAL, DVN, EOG, USO, OIH, XOP Strong-up energy + RTX
🔍 WATCH XLE, XOM, CVX, BA, ITA, TLT, UUP Inflection / unconfirmed
⚠️ OVERBOUGHT OIH (RSI 72) Wait for cool-off
❌ AVOID UNG, DFEN Strong-down + leveraged decay

Crisis-Trade Read-Through

The market is splitting the geopolitical signal:

  1. Oil supply premium: real and pricing in (OIH +44% above SMA200, USO +71% 3M, HAL/DVN/SLB strong-up). Services > producers > ETFs.
  2. Defense procurement premium: NOT pricing in (primes capitulating). Either DOD budget noise is dominating or the market doesn't think Mideast escalation = US procurement spike.
  3. Safe haven bid: weak. Gold RSI 40, TLT flat. Money is going INTO oil services, not OUT of risk.

This pattern says "supply shock" not "war." If we get an actual conflict escalation, defense should snap back violently from these levels. If we get diplomatic resolution, oil services give back.

What Changed vs Apr 10

  • Defense flipped from healthy hold → deep oversold: LMT/NOC RSI 47/42 → 18/20 in 18 days.
  • Oil services took leadership: OIH RSI 72, HAL/DVN/SLB all strong-up. Was much more dispersed earlier in April.
  • USO held +71% 3M gain — supply-fear pricing intact.
  • Gold consolidating after huge YTD run; not making new highs on the news flow.
  • DFEN crashed -14% week — leveraged ETF mechanics on prime selloff.
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 26 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 3 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 10 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan May 29 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Jun 20 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Mar 11 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan — Iran Crisis Jun 25 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jun 16 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan

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