← all events raw scan snapshot Jun 16, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 45 rows · screens, not recommendations source dataresearch/market-engine/data/summaries/geopolitical.json
Signal Reading Overall 🔴 Oil down hard (energy in supply-glut) while 🟢 defense repricing — geopolitical risk premium flowing to defense, NOT oil Key insight The crisis trade is bifurcating: defense ETFs absorbing war premium (+25.5% 30D DFEN) while crude collapses (-22.7% 30D USO) — OPEC supply is overwhelming any conflict-driven supply-risk bid
Oil Producers — Upstream Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action XOM $141.86 -5.2% -11.6% -10.1% -19.6% 38 🟡 Pullback 📈 Watch/Accumulate — quality upstream; RSI 38 approaching value CVX $180.11 -3.1% -7.3% -8.2% -16.1% 40 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — quality name, 40 RSI; needs floor OXY $53.67 -3.2% -9.7% -6.6% -20.4% 39 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — Buffett name; RSI 39 getting interesting COP $111.34 -3.4% -10.6% -8.7% -18.1% 39 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — best-in-class E&P; RSI approaching 38-40 zone DVN $42.89 -1.0% -13.1% -8.9% -18.6% 40 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — higher leverage to oil price; wait for floor EOG $132.05 -4.2% -7.7% -2.0% -13.1% 42 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — quality E&P; 3M is holding better than peers
Oil Services (Upstream-Levered) Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action SLB $53.07 -4.5% -6.7% +15.7% -9.8% 42 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — 3M positive surprise; oilfield services recovering HAL $37.20 -4.3% -12.7% +4.8% -14.7% 37 🟡 Near Oversold ⏳ Watch — RSI 37 approaching 30; wait for RSI < 35
Energy ETFs Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action XLE $55.36 -3.1% -8.6% -4.8% -12.8% 39 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — broad energy; RSI 39 nearing value zone OIH $406.19 -2.1% -10.5% +5.3% -11.6% 39 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — oil services ETF; 3M still positive XOP $157.17 -3.8% -10.8% -7.2% -17.4% 38 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — E&P weighted ETF; weakest 3M USO $115.47 -7.0% -22.7% -2.8% -25.1% 33 🟡 Near Oversold ⏳ Watch — crude oil ETF; RSI 33, not yet oversold floor UNG $11.76 -0.5% +1.9% -3.6% -35.1% 56 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch — nat gas diverging positively from crude
Safe Havens Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action GLD $397.63 +0.1% -5.0% -13.4% -22.0% 44 🟡 Pullback 📈 Accumulate — structural gold bull; 3M reset = reentry SLV $63.39 +4.8% -9.4% -11.5% -42.3% 45 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — silver more volatile; 30D still weak GDX $87.24 +7.7% +0.1% -7.2% -25.6% 53 🟡 Recovering 📈 Accumulate — miners bouncing; watch for 50-SMA reclaim UUP $27.93 0.0% +0.8% +0.9% -1.8% 59 🟢 Basing 🔍 Watch — dollar near highs; mild safe haven bid TLT $86.19 +0.8% +3.6% -0.3% -6.5% 60 🟡 Basing 🔍 Watch — long bonds basing; death cross overhead; not a clean safe haven
Defense Quick Look Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action DFEN $77.78 +8.1% +25.5% +0.5% -20.4% 60 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase — war premium already in 3x ETF ITA $239.52 +3.0% +8.8% +2.9% -4.4% 61 🟢 Uptrend 🔒 Hold — cleanest entry point for defense exposure PPA $176.49 +2.2% +6.0% +0.2% -5.3% 57 🟢 Basing 📈 Accumulate — less concentrated than ITA RTX $186.77 +1.7% +6.6% -7.8% -12.9% 60 🟢 Recovering 📈 Accumulate — missile systems/sustainment premium GD $364.11 +4.9% +6.1% +2.7% -1.5% 66 🟢 Uptrend 🔒 Hold — near 52wk high; best single name LMT $535.95 +0.8% +2.1% -15.2% -22.6% 53 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch — lagging; may be entry if war premium accelerates
Crisis Losers Names that fail to benefit from geopolitical tension — either because supply is winning over conflict premium (energy) or because demand destruction fears dominate.
Stock Price 30D 3M RSI Why It's Losing USO $115.47 -22.7% -2.8% 33 OPEC supply + demand fears overriding conflict premium XOP $157.17 -10.8% -7.2% 38 E&P index crushed by oil decline DVN $42.89 -13.1% -8.9% 40 Leverage to oil price = amplified decline HAL $37.20 -12.7% +4.8% 37 Services follow rigs; rig count falling NOC $551.21 +0.7% -23.5% 47 Defense laggard — B-21 delays + cost overruns
Crisis Playbook IF escalation increases (oil infrastructure attack, shipping disruption, widening conflict):
Priority Action Why 1 Buy RTX/GD on dip Missile replenishment + sustainment = first-order beneficiary 2 Add ITA/PPA (ETF cover) Defense diversified; less single-name risk 3 Watch USO RSI < 30 If oil spikes on supply disruption, USO becomes buy 4 Hold GLD Safe-haven still intact structurally despite 3M pullback 5 Avoid crude producers (XOM/CVX) as first trade Supply/demand dynamics dominate over short conflict premium
IF de-escalation / ceasefire:
Priority Action Why 1 Trim DFEN (3x levered extended) 25.5% 30D = priced for continued escalation 2 Rotate to energy quality (XOM/COP/EOG) Supply premium unwinds = quality E&P bottom-fish 3 Let GLD consolidate Gold will still hold in lower-risk scenario
What to Watch Trigger Implication Names Oil price drops below $65/bbl (USO ~$108) Demand-destruction confirmed; avoid E&P USO, XLE, XOM USO RSI hits 28-30 Capitulation buy signal in crude USO, XOP, OXY GD breaks above 52wk high Defense breakout confirmation GD, ITA, RTX GDX reclaims $90 (SMA50) Gold miners re-enter uptrend GDX, GDXJ, SIL HAL RSI < 32 Oilfield services capitulation HAL, SLB, OIH TLT breaks above $87 (SMA200) Bond market pricing rate cuts aggressively TLT, XHB, ITB
Data from pre-computed summaries as of 2026-06-16T00:00:00. Do not recompute — use code-computed fields exactly.
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