Geopolitical Risk — July 31, 2026 (Friday EOD)
Geopolitical Risk — July 31, 2026 (Friday EOD)
Data as-of the 2026-07-31 settled close (Friday's close). Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math.
Oil reaccelerated across every layer of the book this scan while the traditional safe havens gave no confirming bid at all. All six upstream producers and both refiners posted stronger RSI and larger 30-day gains than the rest of this file, led by CVX (RSI 67.2, 30D +18.79%) and PSX (RSI 69.7, 30D +21.31%). On the other side of the ledger, none of this scan's havens caught a bid: TLT slid to RSI 31.6 — just above outright oversold — GLD, SLV, and GDX all fell on the latest session even while staying rangebound on RSI, and the dollar (UUP) rolled over to RSI 41.9. Defense's leading primes (RTX, LMT, GD) stayed the strongest reads in the sector, while LHX is the one large-cap showing real technical damage (RSI 40.0, -7.71% on the week).
Oil Producers
Upstream
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $155.44 | 63.2 | -1.0% | +14.1% | +4.7% | strong-up | -11.9% |
| CVX | $196.83 | 67.2 | +1.1% | +18.8% | +6.2% | strong-up | -8.3% |
| OXY | $57.07 | 58.8 | -0.4% | +19.0% | +4.4% | strong-up | -15.4% |
| COP | $120.48 | 62.0 | +0.2% | +16.7% | +5.5% | strong-up | -11.3% |
| DVN | $45.13 | 56.8 | +0.2% | +12.1% | +3.8% | strong-up | -14.4% |
| EOG | $148.69 | 65.0 | +1.6% | +16.5% | +6.4% | strong-up | -2.1% |
- Every upstream name is tagged
strong-upwith a positive 30-day print, ranging from DVN's +12.12% to OXY's +19.04% — a uniformly strong cohort with none showing weakness. - EOG is the closest to its 52-week high of the group (-2.09%), while OXY remains the furthest behind at -15.39% despite posting one of the largest 30-day gains in the cohort.
Services
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | $49.59 | 52.5 | -5.4% | +10.0% | +3.3% | weak-down | -15.7% |
| HAL | $32.25 | 38.4 | -3.3% | -2.3% | -4.1% | down | -26.0% |
- SLB sits in the middle of the pack (RSI 52.5, +9.98% 30D) but is still tagged
weak-downdespite the positive print — a name whose trend classification hasn't caught up with its own price action. - HAL is the clear laggard of the entire oil complex — the only name here below RSI 40 and the only one with a negative 30-day return (-2.3%), -26.02% from its 52-week high.
Refiners
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | $311.71 | 65.7 | +2.1% | +19.7% | +5.4% | strong-up | -2.7% |
| PSX | $211.68 | 69.7 | +2.4% | +21.3% | +5.4% | strong-up | -2.0% |
- Both refiners post two of the largest 30-day gains anywhere in the oil complex (VLO +19.69%, PSX +21.31%) and both sit within 3% of their 52-week highs.
- PSX's RSI (69.7) is a hair under overbought — the closest any name in the oil complex comes to RTX's extended reading in the defense section below.
- Data-freshness note: VLO's row in this summary is stamped 2026-07-30 — one session behind every other ticker in this file (2026-07-31). Treat its figures as Thursday's close, not a confirmed Friday print.
Energy ETFs
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | $59.55 | 63.5 | -0.1% | +12.8% | +3.9% | strong-up | -6.2% |
| OIH | $384.81 | 50.6 | -1.8% | +6.9% | +1.6% | weak-down | -16.2% |
| XOP | $177.40 | 64.2 | +1.9% | +15.4% | +5.8% | strong-up | -6.8% |
| USO | $129.17 | 55.5 | -5.5% | +25.1% | +5.9% | strong-up | -16.2% |
XLE, XOP, and USO are all comfortably strong-up with double-digit 30-day gains, led by USO's +25.08%. OIH — the services-heavy energy ETF — is the laggard of the group at RSI 50.6, still tagged weak-down, consistent with HAL's weakness on the services side above.
Safe Havens
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $82.25 | 31.6 | -1.2% | -3.8% | -1.9% | strong-down (`downtrend`) | -10.8% |
| GLD | $371.54 | 45.9 | -0.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% | strong-down | -27.1% |
| SLV | $52.36 | 44.2 | -0.4% | -2.3% | -0.7% | strong-down (`collapse`) | -52.3% |
| GDX | $74.10 | 46.2 | -1.5% | -1.3% | -0.6% | strong-down (`collapse`) | -36.8% |
| UUP | $28.17 | 41.9 | -1.4% | -1.1% | -0.8% | weak-down | -1.5% |
None of the five names in this section caught a bid this scan. TLT is the softest reading of the group at RSI 31.6 — just above the oversold line — still tagged strong-down in a downtrend regime and -10.78% from its 52-week high. GLD, SLV, and GDX are all rangebound in the mid-40s RSI, still death-crossed (SLV and GDX in the deeper collapse regime), and every one of them fell on the most recent session — GLD -1.49%, SLV -2.13%, GDX -3.49% day-over-day. The dollar (UUP) is no exception either, rolling over to RSI 41.9 (weak-down). This week's fund-unwind stress in financial plumbing produced no confirming safe-haven bid anywhere in this book — bonds, gold, silver, miners, and the dollar all moved sideways-to-down together.
Defense Quick Look
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | Trend | 52wkHi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | $582.74 | 68.1 | +0.0% | +11.7% | up | -15.8% |
| RTX | $215.22 | 70.7 | +1.1% | +12.2% | strong-up (`breakout`) | -2.8% |
| NOC | $542.48 | 54.4 | +0.0% | +4.3% | weak-up | -29.9% |
| GD | $383.42 | 61.0 | -0.9% | +6.1% | strong-up (`breakout`) | -4.1% |
| LHX | $277.06 | 40.0 | -7.7% | -5.2% | strong-down | -26.9% |
| BA | $216.14 | 49.4 | +3.2% | -1.1% | down | -15.0% |
| ITA | $239.66 | 53.7 | -0.2% | -1.7% | strong-up | -4.7% |
| PPA | $174.44 | 52.4 | -0.5% | -1.7% | strong-up | -6.4% |
| DFEN | $75.39 | 52.0 | -1.3% | -7.2% | strong-up | -22.9% |
RTX is the only overbought reading anywhere in the defense complex (RSI 70.7) and one of two primes (with GD) tagged in a breakout regime. LHX is the one large-cap showing real technical damage this scan — RSI 40.0 after a -7.71% weekly slide, the softest reading among the primes. Full detail on the sector, including the small-cap supply chain (BWXT, TTMI, LEU) that sits outside this table: 2026-07-31-defense-contractors.md.
Crisis Losers
TLT is the clearest loser in this scan among the names tracked here — its RSI slide to 31.6 puts it within a few points of outright oversold, and it remains -10.78% from its 52-week high in a confirmed downtrend regime. LHX is the equity-side counterpart: the only defense prime with a negative 7-day print (-7.71%) and the softest RSI (40.0) among the nine names in the Defense Quick Look table. HAL is still the weakest name in the oil complex on an absolute basis (RSI 38.4, -26.02% from its 52-week high), though its 30-day drawdown has narrowed to -2.3%.
Crisis Playbook
- Oil reaccelerated across every sub-segment tracked here — upstream, services (aside from HAL), refiners, and ETFs all posted stronger 30-day gains than the rest of the book, led by PSX (+21.31%) and USO (+25.08%).
- No safe-haven bid confirmed anywhere: TLT, GLD, SLV, GDX, and even the dollar (UUP) all sit flat-to-weak this scan, with the metals actually falling on the most recent session — treat this as a genuine non-confirmation of a flight-to-safety trade, not evidence one is building.
- Defense's leading primes (RTX, LMT, GD) remain the strongest reads in the sector, but LHX's -7.71% weekly slide is the one crack in an otherwise firm complex — see the companion
2026-07-31-defense-contractors.mdfor the small-cap supply chain detail (TTMI, BWXT, LEU). - VLO's row in this summary is one session stale (2026-07-30); treat its figures as Thursday's close, not confirmed Friday pricing.
What to Watch
- Whether TLT's slide to RSI 31.6 crosses into outright oversold, and whether that finally produces a haven bid the metals haven't shown.
- Whether the oil complex's broad reacceleration (upstream, refiners, and ETFs all stronger this scan) extends through the next print, or fades the way prior cooldowns have.
- Whether LHX's -7.71% weekly slide is idiosyncratic or an early crack in the defense complex, which otherwise remains firm (RTX RSI 70.7, LMT 68.1, GD 61.0).
- The small-cap defense supply chain (TTMI, BWXT) versus the primes — full detail in the companion
2026-07-31-defense-contractors.mdscan.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.