Data as-of 2026-07-06 close. Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-06-26-geopolitical-risk (2026-06-26).

The prior scan's clean divide — defense rising, oil capitulating, bonds the only working haven — has scrambled. TLT cooled from "working haven" (RSI 65.8) to a neutral RSI 47.1, while gold and silver, last scan's safe-haven failures, are both recovering (GLD RSI 35.8→45.4, SLV RSI 31.7→41.7) as the dollar unwinds (see 2026-07-07-macro-commodities.md). Energy is the one line item the reversal hasn't touched: HAL (RSI 26.7) and OIH (RSI 27.7) pushed deeper into oversold, and every oil name is still below RSI 40. Defense (RTX/NOC/GD/ITA/DFEN — full detail in 2026-07-07-defense-contractors.md) is now running hotter than the prior scan, not just holding.

All six are still below RSI 41, golden-cross intact (pullback-in-uptrend, not breakdown, per the prior scan's read) but none has stabilized — every name's 30D drawdown is roughly the same magnitude or slightly worse than 10 sessions ago. EOG remains the relative-strength name (smallest drawdown, least oversold).

Both services names were already oversold at the prior scan (RSI 29.2/30.5) and have pushed further into oversold since (RSI 29.4/26.7) — this is the one part of the geopolitical book still deteriorating, not repairing. No floor signal yet.

OIH worsened the most (RSI 32.5→27.7). USO's 30D drawdown deepened further (-19.5%→-22.8%) since the prior scan — crude has not found a geopolitical floor despite the defense complex running hot.

The haven rotation flipped. TLT was the prior scan's "the WORKING safe haven" at RSI 65.8, +2.8% 30D — it has since cooled to a neutral RSI 47.1 with 7D actually negative (-2.2%). Meanwhile GLD and SLV, last scan's explicit "not working" and "clearest safe-haven failure," are both up on the week as the dollar cools. This is a genuine handoff, not just noise — worth tracking whether gold reclaims SMA200 (currently below) as confirmation.

Defense is running hotter than the prior scan across every name, including a dramatic reversal in NOC (was near-capitulation at RSI 30.9). See the full 2026-07-07-defense-contractors.md scan for the complete picture — including LEU's unverified single-day pop and the new TTMI addition already breaking down.

• GLD / SLV — the haven-rotation flip is the clearest new signal this scan; both are no-view/unrated and worth a fresh look now that the dollar headwind is easing.
• EOG — the relative-strength name in oil producers; smallest drawdown of the six, worth tracking for a floor first.

• TLT — the bond-haven trade cooled from RSI 65.8 to 47.1; if it breaks further, the "bonds are the working haven" thesis from the prior scan is dead.
• HAL / OIH — both worsened into deeper oversold with no floor; do not treat the broader dollar-driven recovery elsewhere as a signal to buy here.
• USO — 30D drawdown deepened to -22.8% (from -19.5%); no geopolitical catalyst has shown up to arrest the slide despite the defense-side bid staying strong.