Data as-of the 2026-07-28 settled close (Tuesday's close). Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-geopolitical-risk (2026-07-25).

Oil cooled off its near-overbought extension across the board while defense's leading names pushed further into it — and the single sharpest reversal in this file belongs to a haven, not a risk asset. Every upstream oil producer's RSI fell 10+ points off the prior scan's 55-72 band even as 30-day returns stayed solidly positive (XOM still strong-up at +12.48%). Defense's three extended primes (RTX, GD, LMT) pushed further past RSI 70, with RTX's 77.8 now the highest single reading anywhere in this file. The services complex flipped again: SLB's spike faded back to neutral (RSI 65.5 → 54.1) while HAL rolled straight through oversold (RSI 38.7 → 29.4). Meanwhile TLT — the weakest name in the prior scan at RSI 33.0 — jumped to 47.5, the clearest single reversal in the whole scan, though GLD/SLV/GDX stayed essentially flat and still death-crossed.

Upstream

• All six upstream producers cooled off the prior scan's near-overbought extension — XOM's RSI fell to 61.7 from 72.3 and CVX to 56.1 from 71.6, with OXY, COP, DVN, and EOG all down 12-16 RSI points too. 30-day returns are still solidly positive across the group (+1.6% to +12.5%), so this reads as a pause inside the trend rather than a reversal.
• DVN is now the softest name in the cohort, rolling into weak-down at RSI 44.7 — the only upstream producer below the neutral 50 midline.

Services

• The services split flipped for a second straight scan: SLB's single-day spike faded back toward neutral (RSI 65.5 → 54.1), while HAL rolled all the way into oversold (RSI 38.7 → 29.4), now -28.36% from its 52-week high.
• HAL is the deepest divergence from its own upstream peer group in this entire scan — every upstream producer cooled but stayed comfortably above the 40-50 zone, while HAL cooled straight through oversold.

Refiners

• Both refiners cooled slightly on RSI (VLO 63.2 → 59.7, PSX 67.5 → 65.1), but PSX's 30-day gain is still one of the largest in the whole scan at +18.27%, even after rolling off the prior scan's +22.6%.
• VLO's 30-day print narrowed more sharply, from +24.8% to +12.23%, as the prior scan's spike rolls out of the trailing window.

XLE, XOP, and USO all cooled from their prior near-overbought readings (69.8 → 54.1, 65.6 → 50.7, 67.2 → 48.0) while OIH — the services-heavy energy ETF — rolled further into weak-down (RSI 40.7), consistent with HAL's rollover above. None of the four is oversold or overbought right now; this is a broad cooldown, not a breakdown, since every 30-day print in the group is still positive except OIH's essentially flat -0.44%.

TLT is the single sharpest mover in this entire scan: RSI jumped from 33.0 (the weakest reading in the prior scan) to 47.5, and its 30-day drawdown narrowed from -4.4% to -3.32%. It's still tagged strong-down in a downtrend regime and -8.62% from its 52-week high, so this reads as a real recovery, not yet a confirmed reversal. GLD, SLV, and GDX barely moved (RSI within a point or two of the prior scan for all three) and stayed death-crossed — GDX and SLV still in the deeper collapse regime — so the metals side of the haven trade still hasn't confirmed anything. The dollar (UUP) held its re-firming, easing only slightly to RSI 63.3 from 64.3.

The defense complex kept extending rather than fading: RTX (77.8), GD (73.7), and LMT (71.0) are all still at or above 70 RSI, and RTX is now the single highest reading anywhere in this scan. Boeing (BA) — the lone holdout in the prior two scans — joined the move this week, RSI jumping from 41.1 to 55.3. Full detail, including the small-cap supply-chain names (TTMI, BWXT, LEU) that sit outside this table: 2026-07-28-defense-contractors.md.

HAL is the clearest crisis loser in this scan — the only upstream-adjacent name to roll from a positive prior-scan reading straight into oversold (RSI 38.7 → 29.4), even as its own upstream peer group and the broader energy complex stayed net positive on 30 days. OIH, the services-heavy energy ETF, kept weakening (RSI 40.7, weak-down) in step with HAL rather than with the rest of the energy book. GLD, SLV, and GDX are still not confirming a haven bid — all three barely moved this scan and remain death-crossed, with SLV and GDX in the deeper collapse regime.

• Treat oil as cooling, not breaking: every upstream, services, refining, and ETF name in the oil complex saw its RSI fall this scan, but 30-day returns stayed positive almost everywhere — the exception is HAL, which rolled into oversold.
• Defense's leading primes (RTX, GD, LMT) extended further past RSI 70 rather than rolling over, and Boeing finally confirmed the move after sitting out two straight scans — see the companion 2026-07-28-defense-contractors.md scan for the sector's small-cap divergence (TTMI now oversold, BWXT still weakening).
• The clearest single reversal in this file belongs to a haven, not a risk asset: TLT's RSI recovery from 33.0 to 47.5 is worth tracking closely, though GLD/SLV/GDX gave no confirming signal alongside it.
• The services split (SLB cooling back to neutral, HAL falling into oversold) is now a two-scan pattern rather than a one-off — treat these as diverging stories, not a recovering pair.

• Whether TLT's RSI recovery extends into a confirmed trend change, or fades the way the metals' shallow bounce did in prior scans — it's still tagged strong-down in a downtrend regime.
• Whether HAL's slide into oversold marks a bottom or continues — it's now the most beaten-down name in the entire upstream-to-services oil complex.
• Whether RTX's 77.8 RSI (the highest reading in this file) holds or rolls over, now that all three leading defense primes sit at or above 70.
• The small-cap defense supply chain (TTMI, BWXT) versus the primes — full detail in the companion 2026-07-28-defense-contractors.md scan.