The geopolitical-risk basket is reading DE-ESCALATION, not escalation: energy is breaking down across the board (XOM RSI 35, CVX 32.5, COP 33.7, OXY 33.2; services SLB 30.3, HAL 30.7; XLE/XOP/OIH all RSI 33-40), gold/silver are selling off (GLD 32.6, SLV 29.2), and the Dollar (UUP RSI 74.7) + Treasuries (TLT RSI 65.6, up) are the only bids. That combination — crude down, gold down, dollar up, bonds up — is a risk-off / no-war-premium tape, not a conflict spike. Defense ETFs (ITA 57, DFEN 56, PPA 49) hold strong-up but the primes are weak (NOC collapse RSI 31, LMT/LHX strong-down). On the energy split: integrateds (XOM/CVX/COP) hold golden crosses just above SMA200 (most resilient); independents (OXY/DVN) weaker; services (SLB/HAL/OIH) are the WASHED-OUT extreme at RSI 30-33. OIH RSI 32.9 — no late-cycle trim signal (it is oversold, not overbought).

Latest bar 2026-06-25 (all names fresh per summary ). READ-ONLY scan: all figures from pre-computed summaries/geopolitical.json.

UNG (nat gas) RSI 54.5, weak-up, +7.7% 30D, -31% from high, downtrend regime — omitted from body for length; the lone energy name with a positive 30D but in a structural downtrend.

The energy complex is breaking down hard; the split tells you where the relative resilience is:

• Integrateds (XOM / CVX / COP) — most resilient. XOM (RSI 35.1, -8.2% 30D, still +2.9% vs SMA200, golden cross), CVX (32.5, -7.2% 30D, +1.1% vs SMA200, golden cross), COP (33.7, -9.0% 30D, +1.9% vs SMA200, golden cross). All three hold the 200-day by a thread — washed on RSI but trend not yet broken. These are the "if you must own energy here" names: oversold within a still-intact golden cross.
• Independents (OXY / DVN / EOG) — weaker but holding SMA200. OXY (RSI 33.2, -20.1% 3M, +4.7% vs SMA200), DVN (42.5, -15.7% 3M, +6.7% vs SMA200), EOG (45.9, basing, +11.5% vs SMA200 — best-positioned independent). E&Ps are down harder on 3M than the integrateds but still above the 200-day.
• Services (SLB / HAL / OIH) — the washed-out extreme. SLB (RSI 30.3, -17.8% 30D, -10.9% vs SMA20), HAL (30.7, -15.8% 30D, -9.7% vs SMA20), OIH (32.9, -14.7% 30D, -8.1% vs SMA20). Services led the downside — most oversold, deepest below near-term averages, but all three still above SMA200 (+6% to +10%). This is capitulation-class within an intact long-term uptrend.
• OIH late-cycle check: OIH RSI 32.9 — NO trim signal. The brief flags OIH RSI>70 as a late-cycle trim trigger; OIH is the opposite right now (oversold, -14.7% 30D, weak-down). Services are washing OUT, not topping out. No trim action warranted; if anything this is the contrarian-watch end of the energy split (above SMA200, deeply oversold) — but wait for a base, the whole complex is still falling.

Energy read: this is a coordinated crude-demand / de-escalation breakdown (USO -20% 30D), not a single-segment story. The integrateds' held golden crosses are the only structural positive.

• Dollar + Treasuries are the only bids: UUP (RSI 74.7, breakout, overbought) and TLT (65.6, up, +3.0% 30D) — capital is going to USD + duration, not to gold or oil. That's a deflationary-risk-off / no-war-premium signature.
• Gold/silver are NOT acting as the haven: GLD (RSI 32.6, -10.6% 30D, below SMA200) and SLV (29.2, -24.9% 30D, -52% from high, collapse) sold off WITH crude — dollar strength is overwhelming any geopolitical gold bid. GDX (40.7) miners down -34.7% from high.
• Defense: ETF-strong / prime-weak. ITA (RSI 57.2, strong-up), DFEN (55.7, +16.5% 3M), PPA (48.9, strong-up) hold; RTX (55.9, up, +4.3% 30D) the lone strong prime; NOC (30.9, collapse, -35% from high) the broken extreme, LMT/LHX strong-down. Defense is not pricing a fresh conflict catalyst.

• CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT / Hold: ITA (RSI 57, strong-up near high), RTX (56, up, above all MAs), TLT (66, up, duration bid). Holds, not extended.
• OVERSOLD-QUALITY (above SMA200 + golden cross + RSI<35): XOM (RSI 35.1, +2.9% vs SMA200, golden cross), CVX (32.5, +1.1% vs SMA200, golden cross), COP (33.7, +1.9% vs SMA200, golden cross) — the integrateds are the genuine oversold-quality names (washed RSI but 200-day intact). SLB/HAL/OIH are oversold + above SMA200 too but services are still actively falling (-15% to -18% 30D) — watch, don't catch yet.
• BROKEN / AVOID: NOC (RSI 31, collapse, below all MAs, -35% from high), GLD/SLV (below SMA200, the haven that isn't working), LMT/LHX (strong-down, death crosses).
• EXTENDED / TRIM: UUP (Dollar, RSI 74.7, breakout) — overbought; the only name near a trim flag, and it's the safe-haven crowd-trade. OIH is NOT a trim — RSI 32.9, oversold.

• De-escalation signature — crude DOWN (USO -20% 30D), gold DOWN (GLD -10.6% 30D), Dollar UP (UUP 74.7), bonds UP (TLT +3% 30D): the basket is paying no war premium; capital rotated to USD + duration.
• Energy broke down across all three segments — integrateds -8% to -9% 30D, independents -10% (OXY), services -16% to -18% 30D; services led the downside.
• Gold/silver failed as havens — GLD below SMA200, SLV collapse (-52% from high) — dollar strength overwhelmed any geopolitical bid.
• OIH oversold, not overbought — RSI 32.9 vs the >70 late-cycle trim flag; services are washing out, no trim warranted.
• Defense ETF-strong / prime-weak — NOC collapsed (RSI 31, -35% from high) while ITA/DFEN/RTX held; no fresh conflict catalyst being priced.

• Is the de-escalation read (crude + gold down, USD/TLT up) confirmed by an actual geopolitical event, or is it a pure dollar-liquidity move? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
• Do the integrateds (XOM/CVX/COP) hold SMA200 if crude keeps bleeding, or do they roll into the services' broken pattern? (watch the 200-day lines: XOM $134, CVX $170, COP $104)
• Why is gold failing as a haven during apparent risk-off (UUP/TLT bid)? Dollar dominance vs a genuine deflation signal — cross-check vs macro-commodities GLD/SLV read.