Geopolitical Risk Scan
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Geopolitical Risk Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 49 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-geopolitical-risk.md
Risk-ON regime dominating: energy complex weak, safe havens bid only modestly, defense ETFs ripping. Oil producers soft across the board (COP -4.9% 7D, XOM -5.2% 7D). Gold flat. Yen structural weakness ongoing. China FXI at RSI 36 in strong-down trend. Defense/war-premium concentrated in ETFs not primes. The geopolitical tape is pricing "managed tension" not escalation.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Managed-tension regime — no acute crisis pricing; energy soft, defense ETFs bid, safe havens quiet |
| Key insight | Oil producers universally weak (-4-8% 7D) despite active conflict zones — market not pricing supply shock; DFEN +14.6% 7D confirms defense rotation, but GLD flat = no fear premium; FXI/EWZ at RSI 36 = China/EM risk still priced in |
Oil Producers — Upstream vs Services
Upstream E&P
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $145.26 | 39.4 | -4.2% | -5.22% | -5.24% | -5.17% | -17.66% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| CVX | $182.46 | 42.3 | -2.4% | -4.19% | -4.75% | -2.88% | -15.02% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| OXY | $56.63 | 45.8 | -1.5% | -2.25% | -6.52% | +4.97% | -16.04% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| COP | $113.98 | 38.8 | -4.2% | -4.91% | -8.71% | -2.89% | -16.11% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| DVN | $44.49 | 38.0 | -6.1% | -7.02% | -13.39% | -0.51% | -15.59% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| EOG | $133.38 | 43.7 | -2.8% | -4.65% | -5.11% | +4.48% | -12.17% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
- All upstream E&P names soft — COP/DVN weakest with -4.9% and -7.0% 7D drops. RSIs clustered 38-46, none oversold, all weak-down. DVN RSI 38 approaching oversold.
- No supply shock premium: Stocks are down 5-13% over 30 days despite active conflict in Middle East + Ukraine. Market is pricing OPEC+ supply ceiling cap removal, not disruption.
- OXY/EOG slightly more resilient (RSI 44-46) — probably Permian Basin quality + Berkshire OXY bid perception. But still weak-down.
Oilfield Services
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | $54.55 | 45.9 | -2.3% | -3.15% | -4.10% | +6.40% | -7.26% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| HAL | $38.85 | 40.5 | -5.4% | -5.30% | -8.16% | +8.52% | -10.87% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
Energy ETFs
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | $129.09 | 42.3 | -8.2% | -8.23% | -12.24% | +48.06% | -16.22% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| UNG | $11.93 | 61.2 | +7.1% | +7.11% | +12.55% | -0.58% | -34.16% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| XLE | $56.29 | 41.2 | -3.3% | -4.05% | -5.63% | -0.67% | -11.30% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| OIH | $418.25 | 39.8 | -4.3% | -4.66% | -6.69% | +5.77% | -8.93% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| XOP | $163.99 | 41.9 | -4.1% | -3.71% | -7.98% | +3.19% | -13.85% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
- Broad energy complex in retreat: XLE -4.1% 7D, OIH -4.7% 7D, XOP -3.7% 7D. All RSIs 39-42, all below SMA20 by 3-8%. Energy is the weakest sector in this risk-ON environment.
- Nat gas (UNG) is the outlier: RSI 61.2, +7.1% 7D — AI data center power demand + cooling season starting. This is the one geopolitical/structural energy trade working.
- OIH (oilfield services ETF) RSI 39.8 approaching oversold. Still 27% above SMA200 — long-term trend intact, near-term weak.
Safe Havens
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $417.12 | 44.6 | -1.0% | -0.03% | -1.54% | -14.87% | -18.16% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| SLV | $68.33 | 46.3 | -3.3% | +0.43% | +2.51% | -16.23% | -37.79% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| UUP | $27.66 | 53.4 | +0.3% | -0.36% | +1.10% | +1.21% | -2.78% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| TLT | $85.76 | 54.8 | +1.0% | +1.74% | +0.53% | -3.56% | -6.97% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| FXY | $57.62 | 42.6 | -0.7% | -0.07% | -1.72% | -1.34% | -10.86% | strong-down | ❌ Avoid |
- Gold (GLD) ignored: -0.03% for the week = zero crisis premium. -14.9% 3M means the Q1 safe-haven spike is being fully unwound as geopolitical fears abate. This is the clearest "no escalation" signal in the dataset.
- Dollar (UUP) holding: RSI 53.4, near highs. The dollar is the functional safe haven in this environment, not gold. Capital flowing to US risk assets, not hedges.
- Treasuries (TLT) recovering modestly: +1.7% 7D, RSI 54.8, but still -3.6% 3M. Bonds not in crisis-flight mode.
- Yen (FXY) failing as safe haven: -10.9% from 52wk high, strong-down trend. Japan's bond market stress is contaminating yen's traditional safe-haven status.
Defense Quick Look
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | $235.44 | 64.4 | +4.76% | +7.72% | -5.98% | -6.07% | 🔒 Hold |
| PPA | $177.59 | 64.2 | +5.22% | +6.06% | -4.28% | -4.68% | 🔒 Hold |
| DFEN | $75.07 | 62.8 | +14.60% | +22.20% | -22.95% | -23.20% | ⚠️ Avoid |
| GD | $346.82 | 55.4 | +2.49% | +0.73% | -4.48% | -6.19% | 📈 Accumulate |
| RTX | $179.66 | 50.9 | +1.77% | +2.46% | -14.97% | -16.24% | 🔍 Watch |
| LMT | $530.45 | 45.3 | +1.97% | +2.41% | -21.61% | -23.35% | 🔍 Watch |
| NOC | $563.68 | 42.2 | +1.15% | -2.73% | -26.61% | -27.17% | ❌ Avoid |
Defense ETFs ripping but underlying prime contractors diverging. See defense-contractors scan for full analysis.
Crisis Losers (Risk-OFF Proxies Being Ignored)
These would typically rally in a genuine crisis — their flat/down action confirms no acute escalation is priced:
| Proxy | Current Signal | Crisis Behavior | What It Says |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD RSI 44.6, -14.9% 3M | No safe-haven bid | Rallies hard in crises | Market pricing de-escalation |
| TLT RSI 54.8, flat 7D | No flight-to-safety | Rallies in crises | Bonds ignoring geopolitics |
| FXY strong-down | Yen not a safe haven | Yen rallies in risk-off | BoJ credibility problem |
| XOM/COP RSI 38-42, -5% 7D | Oil pricing oversupply | Spikes in supply crises | No disruption premium |
| VUG RSI 74.7, near highs | Growth rally | Sells off in crises | Market is in pure risk-ON |
Crisis Playbook
Current regime: Managed Tension (no acute escalation pricing)
If escalation surprises to the upside:
Positioning checklist for geopolitical spike:
| Asset | Entry on Spike | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| GLD | Under $410 (RSI < 40) | Pre-position before event; don't chase |
| USO | Any -15% flush to $110 | Supply disruption only |
| XOM/COP | RSI < 35 | Oversold + event catalyst |
| ITA/PPA | Any -10% pullback | Defense spending is bipartisan |
| TLT | RSI < 45 + real flight-to-safety | Bond flight, not normal rate movement |
What to Watch
| Catalyst | Watch For | Asset Impact |
|---|---|---|
| OPEC+ June meeting | Production cut reversal vs hold | USO +/-10%; XOM/COP reversal |
| Ukraine ceasefire progress | Any signed framework | RTX/LMT -5-10%; safe havens drop further |
| Middle East escalation | Iran/proxy supply threat | USO +8-15%; GLD +3-5% |
| China Taiwan signaling | Military exercises / ADIZ incursions | FXI -5%; INDA +2% (EM ex-China); SLV rally |
| BoJ rate decision | Surprise hike | FXY +5-8%; EWJ -3-5%; GLD + |
| US defense budget markup | NDAA preliminary votes | LMT/NOC/RTX — watch which programs survive |
| Nat gas summer demand | Heat wave signals / LNG export bids | UNG +10-15% scenario |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Oil down hard (-8% 7D) while defense ETFs up +5% | Markets pricing "more weapons, less oil shock" — war without energy disruption |
| UNG diverging from USO | Nat gas decoupling from oil = AI power demand > geopolitical oil premium |
| GLD -14.9% 3M = no fear premium | This is the cleanest signal that market believes in managed tension, not escalation |
Mistakes to Avoid
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing energy on geopolitics | Oil is pricing supply glut, not disruption; need an actual choke point event |
| Treating yen as safe haven | FXY is structurally broken — BoJ has undermined the safe-haven thesis |
Open Questions
- When does the oil market flip from pricing "OPEC+ oversupply" to "geopolitical risk premium"? Current RSI 42 on USO suggests no imminent reversal.
- Is the nat gas / oil divergence durable? If it is, energy service stocks with LNG exposure (SLB) are more interesting than shale E&P.
- Will China stimulus re-accelerate and lift FXI from RSI 36 lows? That would be a major EM trade inflection.
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jun 20 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jun 25 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jun 16 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 28 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jul 7 ScanGeopolitical Risk Jul 11 ScanGeopolitical Risk Apr 13 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Apr 26 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jul 17 ScanGeopolitical Risk Jul 25 ScanGeopolitical Risk No direct external sources are attached to this read.