Data as-of the 2026-08-14 settled close (Friday's close). Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math.

Every producer, service name, and refiner in the oil complex posted a positive week, the refiners (VLO, PSX) are now the two strongest reads in this entire file, and the safe-haven complex is mixed rather than uniformly bid. GLD, SLV, and GDX are all flat-to-mildly-positive on the week after a strong 30-day run, while TLT stays the one confirmed laggard in the book — RSI 40.3, negative on both the week and the month, still tagged strong-down in a downtrend regime. Defense's leading primes (RTX, NOC, LMT) remain the firmest reads in that sleeve, all sitting in the mid-60s to low-70s RSI band without an outright overbought reading crossing the line.

Upstream

• Every upstream name is positive on both the 7- and 30-day windows — the entire cohort moved the same direction this scan, led by COP's +7.8% weekly gain and +13.7% 30-day print.
• EOG is the comparative laggard of the group — RSI 53.4, the smallest premium to its 20-day average (+0.2%), even though its weekly gain (+5.8%) is solidly positive.

Services

• SLB is the stronger services name — RSI 61.8, uptrend, +13.1% over 30 days.
• HAL posted the largest weekly gain of this pair (+7.9%) but is still negative on 30 days (-2.4%) and carries a weak-down trend tag against a pullback regime — a short-term bounce that hasn't turned the medium-term picture. It also remains the weakest name in the entire oil complex on an absolute basis, -24.7% off its 52-week high.

Refiners

Both refiners are the strongest reads in the entire file — PSX is overbought at RSI 76.7, VLO close behind at 73.0, and both sit within 0.25% of their 52-week highs after the two largest weekly gains anywhere in this book.

• Every energy ETF except UNG is positive on both the 7- and 30-day windows, with OIH's +8.5% weekly gain the largest of the group.
• UNG is the clear outlier — RSI 41.6, -6.0% over 30 days, tagged collapse, and -41.5% off its 52-week high while every other energy ETF is climbing.

• TLT is the weakest reading among the havens — RSI 40.3, negative on both the 7- and 30-day windows, still tagged strong-down in a downtrend regime; bonds are not confirming a haven bid this scan.
• GLD, SLV, and GDX are all flat to only mildly positive on the week (+0.1% to +1.7%) despite strong 30-day gains (+7.8% to +21.6%) — a pause after a run, not a reversal, since none has given back its 30-day gain.
• The dollar (UUP, RSI 42.2) stays the softest currency-side reading, weak-down and negative on both windows — consistent with gold and silver holding their 30-day strength rather than fading.

RTX (RSI 70.6) and NOC (RSI 70.2) are the firmest reads in defense this scan, both close to but not crossing the overbought line. LHX is the softest large-cap at RSI 52.0, still tagged strong-down. Full sector detail, including the small-cap supply chain (BWXT, LEU, TTMI, GE) that sits outside this table, is covered in the companion 2026-08-14-defense-contractors.md scan.

TLT is the clearest laggard in this file — RSI 40.3, negative on both the 7- and 30-day windows, the only safe haven still tagged downtrend. HAL remains the weakest name in the oil complex on an absolute basis: RSI 55.4, -24.7% off its 52-week high, and the only oil-complex name with a negative 30-day print (-2.4%) despite a positive week. UNG is the weakest reading in the entire file (RSI 41.6, -41.5% off its 52-week high, collapse regime).

• The oil complex is broadly strong across every layer this scan — upstream, services, refiners, and ETFs all posted positive weeks, with the refiners (VLO RSI 73.0, PSX RSI 76.7) now the two firmest reads in the entire file.
• The safe-haven complex is mixed rather than uniformly bid: gold, silver, and the miners are pausing after a strong 30-day run (flat-to-mild weekly moves, still-positive 30-day prints), while TLT is the one confirmed laggard, negative on both windows and still in a downtrend regime.
• Defense's leading primes (RTX, NOC, LMT) remain the firmest reads in that sector, all in the mid-60s-to-low-70s RSI band without crossing into outright overbought — see the companion 2026-08-14-defense-contractors.md scan for the small-cap supply chain detail (BWXT, LEU, TTMI, GE).
• HAL and UNG are the two names in this file moving against their own sector's grain this scan — both negative on 30 days while the rest of their respective complexes climbed.

• Whether the refiners' extension (VLO RSI 73.0, PSX RSI 76.7 — the only outright overbought name in this file) draws a pullback or continues to run.
• Whether TLT's downtrend regime (RSI 40.3) deepens toward oversold or stabilizes.
• Whether the precious-metals pause (GLD/SLV/GDX all near-flat on the week) resolves into a continuation of the 30-day uptrend or a deeper pullback.
• Whether HAL's negative 30-day print (-2.4%) closes on the back of its strong week (+7.9%), or whether it continues to lag the rest of the oil complex.
• Whether RTX (RSI 70.6) or NOC (RSI 70.2) crosses into confirmed overbought — full sector detail in the companion 2026-08-14-defense-contractors.md scan.