Data as-of the 2026-09-18 settled close.

The war moved onto Saudi soil, oil spiked past $105, and by Friday the drillers and the oil-service names had given back more than the crisis gave them — while the refiners went vertical. That split is the whole scan: the market decided this is a routing problem, not a barrel problem. Valero closed $413.28 at RSI 80.1, up 5.86% on the week and 0.81% from its 52-week high; Phillips 66 closed $273.13 at RSI 77.7, up 5.26%. Against them, Schlumberger fell 8.81% on the week and Halliburton 6.14%, with the oil-services fund down 5.22% — the group that gets paid to produce more barrels sold off in the week barrels were threatened. Defense, the sector a war narrative names first, is still the crisis loser: not one name in the quick-look block trades above its 200-day average.

The Saudi phase is now the frame. Saudi Arabia shut its roughly 750-mile East-West pipeline — the route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz — after attacks, with satellite images showing the damage (CNBC, September 13 and 14). Houthi forces seized strategic islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the kingdom was left under military pressure from Iran and its proxies (Semafor, September 15). Riyadh said it intercepted a Houthi drone near Mecca; the group denied it and claimed a downed Saudi fighter (Semafor, September 16), after messages that the Houthis were attacking Mecca circulated across the country on Tuesday (Semafor, September 16). US crude topped $105 as cargoes were cancelled (CNBC, September 15) and Aramco suspended Yanbu loadings (Yahoo Finance, September 15). US diesel hit record highs (Semafor, September 15).

Then the kingdom routed around it. Saudi Arabia moved to restore the pipeline (Bloomberg, September 16), ramped prompt sales of crude from outside the Strait of Hormuz including ship-to-ship transfers (Bloomberg and CNBC, September 17), and began pushing more of its exports through Hormuz itself (MarketWatch, September 17). Oil fell on the news. That is the mechanism behind the numbers in this file: the crude fund is down 0.7% on the week and still up 17.5% on the month; upstream producers gave back 1.5% to 4.3% each; the exploration-and-production fund fell 2.61% with its trailing-year gain still +43.4%.

The refiners are the exception and the tell. A supply scare that threatens routing rather than volume, with diesel at record highs, widens the crack — and the two refiners in this book are the only names that gained, both to within 1.5% of their 52-week highs, both at RSI approaching or through 80. Whether that is what drove them is not established by anything on file: Valero's news pull last completed September 11 and Phillips 66's August 18, neither covering this week. The desk's own Friday signal board flags both as the strongest and most extended names it tracks.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday, its first hike since 2023, and the ten-year Treasury yield went back above 5% (CNBC and Yahoo Finance, September 16). CNBC reported on September 15 that oil and the ten-year are moving in their tightest lockstep since 2019 — which is why the long bond in this file barely improved even as the crisis intensified, and why safe havens here are not behaving like safe havens.

Upstream

Services

Refiners

Every upstream producer is still in an intact uptrend — all six above their 200-day averages by 10% or more, all six positive on the trailing year by 21% to 44% — and every one of them gave back part of the week. The services block is where the damage is: Schlumberger's cushion over its 200-day fell from 13.3% to 2.5% in one week and Halliburton's flipped from +2.4% to −4.5%. Both are still up roughly 47% and 50% on the trailing year, so these are deep pullbacks inside intact trends, not breakdowns — but Halliburton has lost the line that distinguishes the two, and Schlumberger is within a week's move of the same.

The three equity energy funds all cooled out of the breakout labels they carried a week ago and back into ordinary uptrends, without losing anything structural — the broad energy fund is still 15.4% above its 200-day, the exploration fund 18.2%. The services fund is the one deteriorating: its cushion over the 200-day fell from 10.4% to 3.9% and its RSI from 54.0 to 41.6. Natural gas improved for the first time in several scans, still deeply negative on the year.

This is the most important block in the scan and it says the market is not treating this as a fear event. Gold rose 0.6% on the week — it pushed higher on Wednesday as Treasuries pared losses after the hike (Bloomberg, September 16) — and still sits 3.6% below its 200-day and 21.29% off its high. Silver did better and is 8.9% below its own. The gold miners are above their 200-day while both metals are below, a divergence now in its second week.

The actual haven this week was the dollar: RSI 48.7 to 63.1, up 1.14%, 2.4% above its 200-day and labelled strong-up. That is a Fed trade, not a war trade. And the long bond, the textbook crisis instrument, managed +0.47% on a week containing an attack on Saudi oil infrastructure and a drone intercept near Mecca — still −8.9% on the trailing year and 5.4% below its 200-day.

The week's dated defense news was as favourable as it gets — the State Department notified Congress of a plan to sell Saudi Arabia up to 48 F-35 fighters, worth as much as $24.3 billion, with the Pentagon and Lockheed also moving to speed a new classified air-to-air missile (Bloomberg, September 17) — and the sector funds still fell. Three primes closed green (Lockheed, Northrop, L3Harris); every other name fell; not one of the eight trades above its 200-day. Raytheon lost that line this week, at $194.00 against a $194.17 average. Full sector detail, including the nuclear-fuel and electronics supply chain, is in the companion defense-contractors scan of the same date.

Oil services are the new casualty. Schlumberger −8.81% and Halliburton −6.14% on the week, with Halliburton now 4.5% below its 200-day and Schlumberger's cushion down to 2.5% from 13.3%. Both are still up roughly 47% and 50% on the trailing year, so the multi-year trends are not broken — but they are the only energy names in this file whose long-term lines are in play, and neither has a news pull fresh enough to cover the move (Schlumberger's last completed September 1, Halliburton's July 29).

Defense is still the anomaly. L3Harris is 20.9% below its 200-day and −12.53% on the year, Northrop −8.08% and 12.3% below, Boeing −8.1% and 10.4% below after a −5.82% week. Boeing carries double exposure: a defense unit inside this book and a commercial business paying directly for the fuel spike.

The long bond has not recovered. Up 0.47% on the week but still −8.9% on the trailing year and 5.4% below its 200-day, in a week that would classically have produced a duration bid.

Natural gas remains the file's standing outlier at −17.84% on the year and 9.8% below its 200-day, though it improved this week.

The naive playbook for a Gulf escalation is: buy oil, buy defense, buy gold, buy duration. Three of those four have not worked, and the fourth has already worked so hard it is the risk.

Oil worked and is now the question, not the answer. The crude fund is +105.94% on the trailing year and 38.2% above its 200-day. The disruption is being routed around — restored pipeline, ship-to-ship transfers, more Hormuz traffic (Bloomberg, CNBC, MarketWatch, September 16 and 17) — so further escalation extends a fully-extended move rather than starting a new one, and de-escalation unwinds it fast. Note the specific asymmetry CNBC flagged on September 15: with oil and the ten-year in their tightest correlation since 2019, a crude spike now also tightens financial conditions, which is why the equity blocks that key off rates fell in the same week.

Defense did not work and has not worked for a month. An F-35 notification, an intensifying peninsula war and a Mecca-adjacent drone intercept produced three green primes and two red funds, with zero names above their 200-day. That is not a war premium; that is a sector re-rate absorbing a war.

Gold and silver did not lead. Both rose and both remain below their 200-day lines while the dollar broke higher. In an actual fear regime the metals lead and the dollar is a co-haven; here the dollar is the haven and it moved on the Fed, not the war.

The one thing that did work is the refining crack. Valero and Phillips 66 took essentially the entire week's gain in this file, both within 1.5% of 52-week highs, both at or near overbought, with US diesel at record highs on the record (Semafor, September 15). That is the expression of a routing crisis rather than a supply crisis — and at RSI 80.1 it is also the most crowded thing here. Neither name has a news pull covering this week, so the mechanism is a reasonable read of the tape, not an established cause.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $ITA (26.1), $PPA (29.4), $LHX (30.4), $RTX (30.7), $GD (32.2), $BA (33.5), $SLB (38.6), $HAL (39.9). Seven of the eight are below their 200-day lines; $SLB is the lone exception, still 2.5% above its own. The two energy names in this tier are the interesting ones, because they are the only names here that are oversold while still up roughly 50% on the trailing year.

Neutral (RSI 40–70) — $OIH (41.6), $LMT (42.4), $TLT (42.9), $NOC (44.4), $OXY (46.3), $EOG (47.0), $COP (50.0), $GLD (50.6), $GDX (51.6), $UNG (52.2), $DVN (52.8), $XOP (53.7), $XOM (53.6), $SLV (54.0), $CVX (54.9), $XLE (55.6), $UUP (63.1), $USO (63.6). The bulk of the file, and the extension that was here a week ago is gone.

Extended (RSI above 70) — $PSX (77.7), $VLO (80.1). Two names, both refiners, both within 1.5% of 52-week highs.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label are short-window classifiers. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns carry the verdict: above the 200-day with a positive year is a deep pullback inside an intact trend; below it means the long trend is under test; negative on the year is the genuinely broken case. Event claims here come from dated published reports, and where a name's news pull predates its move this scan calls the move unconfirmed rather than unexplained — a stale or failed receipt is never evidence that nothing happened. Nothing here is a recommendation.

Against the September 11 edition, in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• The whole upstream block cooled. Exxon RSI 61.6 to 53.6, Chevron 68.9 to 54.9 and out of its breakout label, ConocoPhillips 67.5 to 50.0, Devon 66.8 to 52.8, Occidental 62.3 to 46.3. Every weekly return flipped from positive to negative. Every one of the six is still above its 200-day.
• Services broke down. Schlumberger's week went from −2.52% to −8.81% and its 200-day cushion from 13.3% to 2.5%; Halliburton's from −3.32% to −6.14%, flipping from +2.4% above its 200-day to 4.5% below. The services fund's RSI fell 54.0 to 41.6.
• Refiners extended further. Valero $390.42 to $413.28 with RSI 78.6 to 80.1 and the trailing year +147.74% to +152.23%; Phillips 66 $259.47 to $273.13, RSI 74.4 to 77.7, trailing year +95.80% to +107.94%.
• Crude cooled without breaking. RSI 71.9 to 63.6, trailing year +112.19% to +105.94%, 200-day cushion 41.9% to 38.2%.
• Precious metals improved slightly. Gold's 200-day gap narrowed 4.1% to 3.6%, silver's 11.4% to 8.9%; both weekly returns flipped positive.
• The dollar flipped from weak-down to strong-up, RSI 48.7 to 63.1 — the largest single change in the safe-haven block.
• The long bond improved off a low base. RSI 35.2 to 42.9, trailing year −10.48% to −8.9%, 200-day gap 6.1% to 5.4% below; still negative on both counts.
• Defense lost its last name above the 200-day. Raytheon went from +2.1% above to 0.1% below and General Dynamics from +0.3% to −0.6%; L3Harris climbed out of capitulation (RSI 24.9 to 30.4) while Boeing fell into it in all but name (44.9 to 33.5, week −0.85% to −5.82%).

• Whether the Saudi pipeline restart actually happens. Reporting says the kingdom is moving to restore it while rerouting through Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers. A failed restart puts the crude premium straight back — and, on the current oil-yield correlation, the ten-year with it.
• Schlumberger's $49.89 and Halliburton's $35.22. The only 200-day lines in the energy complex currently in play, on two names still up roughly 50% on the trailing year. They decide whether the services selloff is a flag or the first real break in this complex.
• Whether the refining crack holds. Valero at RSI 80.1 within 0.81% of its high is the most extended thing in the file. Diesel at record highs is the supporting fact on record; a pipeline restart is the obvious thing that unwinds it.
• Gold's $416.22 against the gold miners' own 200-day. Two weeks of the miners above and the metal below. One without the other decides nothing; together they settle whether there is a haven bid at all.
• Whether defense ever pays for the news. A $24.3 billion F-35 notification and an escalating peninsula war produced zero names above their 200-day. Raytheon's $194.17 is the first line that would change that read.
• The United Nations meetings on the war's endgame next week (CNBC, September 17). A credible ceasefire path is the single event that reprices every block in this file at once — and it cuts against the longs, not for them.

• geopolitical (2026-09-18 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-11-geopolitical-risk (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-18-defense-contractors (companion sector detail), 2026-09-18-macro-commodities (cross-asset companion)
• 2026-09-14-cnbc-oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-arabia-shuts-down-critical-pipel-108362194, 2026-09-14-cnbc-satellite-images-show-extent-of-damage-to-saudi-arabia-s-oil-108362287
• 2026-09-15-semafor-saudi-arabia-under-military-pressure-from-iran-houthis-rom-iran-houthis, 2026-09-16-semafor-fighting-intensifies-between-saudi-forces-and-iran-backed-ho-n-backed-houthis, 2026-09-16-semafor-iran-backed-houthis-test-mecca-s-sacred-shield-as-sacred-shield
• 2026-09-15-cnbc-u-s-oil-tops-105-as-saudi-arabia-reportedly-cancels-some-cru-108362801, 2026-09-15-yahoofinance-saudi-oil-crisis-deepens-as-aramco-suspends-yanbu-loadings-o-170000784-html, 2026-09-15-semafor-us-diesel-hits-record-highs-as-oil-supply-fears-mount-pply-fears-mount
• 2026-09-16-bloomberg-oil-holds-drop-as-saudi-arabia-moves-to-restore-vital-pipeli-tlfzdrkjh6v400, 2026-09-17-bloomberg-saudi-pivots-oil-routes-after-pipeline-attack-tlj01jr24u8q00, 2026-09-17-cnbc-oil-extends-losses-as-saudi-arabia-reportedly-offers-ship-to-108364169, 2026-09-17-marketwatch-saudi-arabia-is-now-pushing-to-export-more-oil-through-the-s--mktw-0005237246
• 2026-09-17-bloomberg-us-to-sell-f-35s-to-saudi-arabia-in-24-3-billion-deal-tlj0adkip3ip00, 2026-09-17-cnbc-trump-plans-to-meet-gulf-leaders-at-un-next-week-on-iran-war-108364165
• 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494, 2026-09-15-cnbc-oil-and-treasury-yields-haven-t-moved-this-closely-in-seven--108362816, 2026-09-16-bloomberg-gold-rises-as-us-treasuries-pare-losses-following-fed-rate-h-tlh7m0kk3ny800
• 2026-09-18-hot-signals (Friday strong-names board: $VLO, $PSX)
• News receipts checked and stale for this week's moves: latest (2026-09-01), latest (2026-07-29), latest (2026-09-11), latest (2026-08-18), latest (2026-07-14)