Data as-of the 2026-09-25 settled close.

Two sessions after the refining trade round-tripped on the Hormuz-reopening report, it split in two: Valero already found a new bid, its RSI climbing back to 58.3 and its price to a fresh high in this book, while Phillips 66 kept giving ground, its 7-day reading widening to −6.36%. The long bond took a real leg down as Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007, and defense gained a second name above its 200-day — GE Aerospace, joining TTM Technologies — while General Dynamics fell into capitulation-tier RSI. Upstream producers mostly held their cushions with modest cooling; Devon Energy fell 3.78% today alone with no dated cause on file. Oil itself stabilized rather than fell further, as diplomacy on reopening Hormuz continued on two competing tracks.

The Hormuz story kept moving without resolving in either direction. The desk's own Thursday, September 24 market brief reported the oil fund up 2.86% that session on what it called "mixed diplomacy" — Semafor had crude above $100 on the standing US-Iran deadlock the same day Bloomberg reported negotiators exploring a phased deal to reopen the strait, and Semafor separately reported Iran presenting the US a roadmap echoing the countries' earlier ceasefire framework. Net of that, oil's own 7-day reading in this file improved from −4.7% to −3.57%, a partial stabilization rather than a reversal of the prior scan's giveback.

The refining trade — the one thing the September 23 edition said had "worked, then round-tripped" — split into two different stories this window. Valero's RSI climbed from 53.0 back to 58.3 and its price rose from $375.84 to $387.18, extending its cushion over the 200-day from 48.8% to 52.0% — a name that found a new bid rather than continuing to unwind. Phillips 66 went the other way: its 7-day reading widened from −3.08% to −6.36% and its trailing year compressed sharply, from +93.89% to +83.89%, even as its cushion over the 200-day only narrowed modestly, from 42.5% to 41.2%. Neither name has a dated news item covering either direction — Valero's last pull completed September 18, Phillips 66's September 19 — so this divergence is read off the tape only.

Upstream producers mostly cooled without breaking anything: five of six remain comfortably above their 200-day averages and positive on the trailing year, though most cushions narrowed further this window. Devon Energy is the exception worth flagging on its own: it fell 3.78% today alone, the single largest one-day move anywhere in the upstream block, and its last substantive news pull predates this window by three months — the cause is not established here. Halliburton kept sliding modestly (200-day gap widening to −7.3% from −6.5%) while Schlumberger's week actually turned positive (+0.82% versus −0.82% two sessions ago), continuing the split between the two services names the prior edition first flagged.

The long bond took a real step down this window, not a pause. The desk's Thursday brief reported the fund fell 1.29% on 1.81 times its volume as the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007 — above 5.20% intraday, per that day's coverage — and this file's own numbers confirm it: TLT's RSI fell from 38.0 to 31.7, its 7-day reading widened to −2.36% from −0.52%, and its gap to its 200-day deepened to −7.4% from −6.2%. That is the one place in this file where a dated, sourced cause lines up cleanly with the size of the move. Gold, silver and the dollar, by contrast, barely moved in either direction over the same two sessions — full detail in the companion macro-commodities scan. Defense gained a second name above its 200-day this window, GE Aerospace, while General Dynamics fell into capitulation-tier RSI; full sector detail is in the companion defense-contractors scan of the same date.

Upstream

Refiners

Every upstream producer except Halliburton remains above its 200-day average and positive on the trailing year. Devon Energy's single-day drop is the block's one unconfirmed anomaly this window. The refiners diverged for the first time in this file's recent run: Valero found a new bid, Phillips 66 kept giving ground, and neither has a dated news item explaining which direction it should be reading.

The three equity energy funds cooled further without losing anything structural, still 1.9% to 11.7% above their own 200-days. The services fund's cushion is the thinnest in the block and continuing to erode. Crude's own stabilization is covered in full in the companion macro-commodities scan.

This is still the block that says the market is not treating this as a fear event, and the long bond's move this window makes the point more sharply, not less: the textbook crisis instrument fell further as Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007, a rates-driven move rather than a flight to safety. Gold and silver barely moved from where they sat two sessions ago; the miners' cushion kept shrinking. The dollar cooled off its first overbought print in months without reversing.

No confirmed dated defense news landed this window beyond a September 24 report of senators pressing the Pentagon on F-35 parts diverted to China, with no ticker attribution and no visible reaction in Lockheed's own tape. General Dynamics fell into capitulation-tier RSI and Raytheon's break deepened further; GE Aerospace crossed above its 200-day, the book's second reclaim after TTM Technologies. Full sector detail is in the companion defense-contractors scan of the same date.

The refining trade split apart. Valero already found a new bid — RSI back to 58.3, price to a fresh high in this book — while Phillips 66 kept sliding, its trailing year compressing from 93.89% to 83.89%. Neither name has a dated news item confirming its direction.

The long bond took a real leg down, not a pause. TLT's RSI fell to 31.7 from 38.0 as the 10-year touched its highest level since 2007; this is the one place in this file where a dated, sourced cause lines up with the size of the move.

Devon Energy's single-day drop has no established cause. −3.78% today alone against a book where every other upstream name moved modestly; its news pull predates this window by three months.

Defense is still not paying for a war it covers, though it gained a second reclaimed name. GE Aerospace joined TTM Technologies above its 200-day; General Dynamics fell into capitulation-tier RSI; Raytheon's break deepened. No prime has reclaimed its line.

The naive playbook for a Gulf escalation is still: buy oil, buy defense, buy gold, buy duration. None of the four worked cleanly this window either, and the fourth trade — the refining crack — is now actively splitting into a winner and a loser rather than moving as one.

Oil stabilized rather than extended. The crude fund's 7-day reading improved to −3.57% from −4.7% as the Hormuz story moved to a two-sided diplomatic thread rather than a one-way shock.

Defense still has not worked as a group, though its top got a little wider. Two names — TTM Technologies and now GE Aerospace — are above their 200-day; General Dynamics dropped into capitulation-tier RSI in the same window. Every prime remains below its own line.

Gold and silver did not lead, and did not fall further either. Both funds' gaps to their 200-day held roughly steady this window, a pause in three prior scans' worth of widening rather than a reversal of it.

The refining crack is now a divergence, not a unified trade. Valero already rebuilding, Phillips 66 still sliding — the same "extension unwinds fast" mechanism the prior scan flagged, now resolving in opposite directions for the two names that moved together through the whole episode until now.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — $GD (23.2), $LHX (23.5).

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $ITA (31.1), $PPA (31.9), $RTX (29.1), $HAL (36.1), $TLT (31.7), $BA (37.8), $NOC (37.6), $SLB (41.2 — just above the line). Seven names in the 25–40 band; five of them are also below their 200-day lines.

Neutral (RSI 40–70) — $LMT (37.1 — bordering), $OIH (39.0), $EOG (42.7), $OXY (41.5), $COP (44.3), $GDX (47.0), $XLE (44.6), $XOP (42.2), $CVX (47.7), $XOM (48.7), $DVN (46.0), $GLD (45.2), $SLV (48.1), $VLO (58.3), $PSX (55.0), $USO (54.0), $UNG (60.9). The bulk of the file remains here.

Extended (RSI above 70) — none this window. Two scans ago the dollar occupied this tier alone; it cooled to 68.1.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label are short-window classifiers. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns carry the verdict: above the 200-day with a positive year is a deep pullback inside an intact trend; below it means the long trend is under test; negative on the year is the genuinely broken case. Event claims here come from dated published reports, and where a name's news pull predates its move this scan calls the move unconfirmed rather than unexplained — a stale or failed receipt is never evidence that nothing happened. Nothing here is a recommendation.

Against the September 23 edition — two trading sessions, not a full week — in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• The refining trade split apart. Valero's RSI 53.0 to 58.3, price $375.84 to $387.18, cushion 48.8% to 52.0% — a new bid, not a continued unwind. Phillips 66's RSI 55.9 to 55.0, 7D −3.08% to −6.36%, trailing year 93.89% to 83.89% — the divergence the two names shared for scans is now resolving in opposite directions.
• The long bond took a fresh leg down. RSI 38.0 to 31.7, 7D −0.52% to −2.36%, 200-day gap −6.2% to −7.4%, on Treasury yields hitting their highest level since 2007 per the desk's own Thursday coverage.
• Devon Energy fell sharply today with no established cause. −3.78% on the day, the single largest upstream move this window.
• Gold and silver paused rather than widened further. Gold's gap 5.6% to 5.5%, silver's 11.8% to 11.9% — noise-level changes after two prior scans of widening.
• The dollar cooled off its first overbought print without reversing. RSI 72.3 to 68.1.
• Defense gained a second reclaimed name. GE Aerospace crossed from 1.0% below its 200-day to 1.2% above, joining TTM Technologies; General Dynamics fell into capitulation-tier RSI (26.2 to 23.2) in the same window.
• Schlumberger's week turned positive while Halliburton kept sliding. SLB's 7-day flipped from −0.82% to +0.82%; HAL's 200-day gap widened from −6.5% to −7.3%.

• Whether Valero's new bid extends or the refining trade re-converges with Phillips 66's slide. The two names moved together through the entire prior episode; this window is the first time they've split.
• The long bond's next move as Treasury yields test fresh multi-decade highs. TLT is now worse on every window this file tracks; whether the 19-year yield high itself marks a peak is the swing factor.
• Devon Energy's single-day drop. No dated cause on file; whether it recurs or was a one-off is unconfirmed either way.
• Whether GE Aerospace's reclaim holds alongside TTM's. Two names above their 200-day is new; a loss of either line next window would matter more than this window's gain did.
• General Dynamics' capitulation-tier RSI, now the second name in that tier alongside L3Harris — whether it marks a floor or follows L3Harris deeper.
• Gold's $416.44 and the miners' shrinking cushion. The gap paused widening this window rather than closing; whether that holds is still unresolved.

• geopolitical (2026-09-25 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-23-geopolitical-risk (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-25-defense-contractors (companion sector detail), 2026-09-25-macro-commodities (cross-asset companion)
• 2026-09-24-market-brief (Hormuz mixed-diplomacy oil rally, 19-year Treasury yield high, long-bond volume and decline)
• 2026-09-24-semafor-us-iran-explore-phased-deal-to-reopen-hormuz-to-reopen-hormuz, 2026-09-24-semafor-iran-presents-us-with-roadmap-to-end-the-war-p-to-end-the-war
• News receipts checked and stale or quote-pages-only for this window's moves: latest (2026-09-18), latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-07-29), latest (2026-09-19), latest (2026-06-21, does not cover today's -3.78% move)