Data as-of the 2026-10-09 settled close. The geopolitical picture is drawn from captures dated October 4–8 and the October 8 market brief; no October 9 captures are in the corpus, so Friday's single-day moves carry no dated cause.

The war is still paying through oil, not through the classic havens or the weapons makers. Every upstream producer gained on the week (1.28% to 5.8%), ConocoPhillips and Devon moved into uptrend classifications, and the refiners closed at RSI 69.8 ($VLO) and 69.6 ($PSX). Gold, the miners, the long bond and all six defense primes stayed under their 200-day averages. The week's world news ran both ways. Iran stepped up tanker attacks in Hormuz (CNBC, October 6 and 8), Houthi missiles hit Riyadh for a second day (Semafor, October 8), drones struck tankers in the Black Sea (Semafor, October 6) and Treasury sanctioned 17 shadow-fleet tankers (CNBC, October 8). Against that, Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections and called talks "productive" (CNBC, October 8), while G7 and IEA diesel releases (Semafor, October 5; CNBC, October 7) and a Hormuz traffic rebound (Semafor, October 5) eased supply.

Producers led. Over five sessions $COP rose 5.8%, $EOG 4.8%, $OXY 3.5%, $XOM 3.01%, $CVX 2.56% and $DVN 1.28%; the energy-sector fund ($XLE) gained 3.6% and the exploration fund ($XOP) 3.56%. Every producer sits above its 200-day on a one-year gain between 32.38% and 49.62%. Part of Thursday's move has a dated item: Exxon rose about 2% on October 8 after news that the administration plans to roll back methane regulations (Benzinga, October 8), the same day oil jumped on stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks and a hurricane threat to US Gulf output (CNBC, October 8). Friday was mixed for the producers (−1.35% to +0.26%) with no cause on file.

Refiners stayed the extended leaders. $VLO rose 6.76% on the week and $PSX 5.14%, then gave back 2.26% and 1.21% on Friday. $VLO is 62.5% above its 200-day on a 167.73% year. The diesel story behind them is dated and specific: G7 nations released stockpiles to tame surging diesel prices (Semafor, October 5), the IEA prioritized diesel releases (CNBC, October 7), Chevron's CEO warned against a diesel export ban (CNBC, October 7), and heating-oil bills could rise 21% this winter (CNBC, October 7). At RSI near 70, both refiners are chase territory.

Services remain the weak side of energy. $SLB is 3.6% and $HAL 8.4% under their 200-days, and the services fund ($OIH) sits 0.5% under its own, after 30-day losses of 9.48% to 14.2%. Strong producers and weak services fit a market that treats the supply shock as temporary rather than as the start of a drilling cycle.

The havens did not catch a war bid. Bloomberg (October 7) reported gold rising from a two-month low after the no-attack pledge, and the gold fund bounced Friday, but the gold fund, silver and the miners all remain under their 200-days. The dollar fund closed at RSI 69.9 near its yearly high after Bloomberg (October 7) reported investors seeking safety in it. The long-bond fund left capitulation-tier RSI (34.8) but is still 8.4% under its 200-day on a −12.56% year: the Fed's minutes showed all 19 officials behind September's hike (Bloomberg, October 7), and the 10-year was 5.28% on October 7 (FRED, as carried in the October 8 market brief).

Against the October 2 edition (history, for comparison):

• Producers strengthened. $COP and $DVN moved from pullback into uptrend classifications; every producer gained on the week.
• Refiners climbed toward RSI 70 after last week's readings in the mid-60s, and both stayed above their 20-days through Friday's giveback.
• The long bond left capitulation-tier RSI. $TLT was in the low 20s on October 2; it is now 34.8, with its long trend still down.
• The services fund moved from pullback to basing and is now within 0.5% of its 200-day; $SLB and $HAL are still under theirs.
• Havens unchanged in structure. Gold, silver and the miners are still under their 200-days; the dollar eased from just over RSI 70 to 69.9.
• Defense unchanged. All six primes and both baskets still under their 200-days.

Twelve of 28 names close above their 200-day averages, all of them energy names plus the dollar.

The tables are raw screen evidence from the October 9 settled close. Use the one-year and vs-200-day columns to separate long trends from weekly noise. Energy names above their 200-days with 30% to 170% years are intact trends; a weak day there is a pullback. Havens and defense names under their 200-days have long trends under test or broken. World events carry their capture dates; none is treated as the cause of a single name's move unless the item names it.

• Six of six above their 200-days and their 20-days; RSI 52.6 to 64.2. None is extended.
• Exxon closed just under the $169.64 pivot of its 11.2-week base, the setup closest to a breakout here.
• Devon and EOG filed 8-Ks on October 8 (bodies unread); Exxon and Chevron are scheduled to report October 30 (provider dates).

• Upstream versus services: producers are above their 200-days, services under or on theirs, despite services carrying positive years (39.1% to 51.18%). The market is paying for barrels, not for new drilling.
• Refiners are the war's clearest beneficiaries on this board and the most extended: 7.8% and 5.3% above their 20-days. Valero is scheduled to report October 22 and Phillips 66 October 28 (provider dates).
• SLB filed an 8-K on October 6 and Halliburton is scheduled to report October 20 (provider date).

• The equity funds outgained crude on the week: $XLE +3.6% against the crude fund's +0.56%. The equity side is outrunning the commodity.
• Crude's week was a tug-of-war: down October 5 on the Hormuz rebound and Saudi price cuts for Asia (Semafor; Bloomberg, October 4), up October 7–8 on tanker attacks, the Riyadh strikes and the hurricane (Bloomberg; CNBC; Semafor).
• Natural gas rose 5.16% but remains under its 200-day and down on the year; no gas-specific cause is on file.

• The dollar is the only haven working, and it is working as much on Europe's fiscal strain (Bloomberg, October 5) as on the war (Bloomberg, October 7).
• Gold is trading the rate path more than the war: the rise Bloomberg reported on October 7 followed a de-escalation pledge, not an escalation, and the gold fund still closed that session down 1.67% (October 7 market brief).
• CNBC (October 8) reported options traders starting to call a bottom in the bond rout after a strong 10-year auction; $TLT has not confirmed it and sits under its 20-day.

Lockheed, RTX, Northrop, General Dynamics and L3Harris moved less than 1% each on the week and Boeing fell 1.65%; their RSI left capitulation on flat prices. The full read, including TTM Technologies losing its 200-day, is in the defense-contractors scan.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none. $TLT and three primes left this tier on the week.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $GD, $ITA, $LHX, $NOC, $TLT, $PPA, $RTX, $SLB, $LMT. All under their 200-days; for $NOC, $LHX and $TLT the low RSI sits in down-year trends.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — $BA, the metals funds, $HAL, $OIH, $UNG, the crude fund, all six producers, both energy-equity funds and both refiners. $VLO and $PSX at 69.8 and 69.6, and $UUP at 69.9, sit on the overbought line.

Conditions, not orders.

• The long bond. $TLT is 8.4% under its 200-day on a −12.56% year. The Fed hiked in September with all 19 officials behind it, citing inflation, the geopolitical situation and the AI build-out (Bloomberg, October 7); that is the dated headwind on file.
• Natural gas holders. $UNG is still down on the year and under its 200-day despite the week's bounce.
• Other names under their 200-days in the macro-commodities scan: the homebuilder funds, the euro, Europe's two equity funds and India's fund. Nothing on file ties any one of them to the war.
• Airlines (not on this board): the October 8 market brief listed them as the expected loser from higher fuel costs; that is the brief's read, not a measured result.

The state of the war as of October 8:

• September CPI, scheduled October 14. The rate leg of this board ($TLT, gold, the dollar) turns on it.
• Hormuz: attacks against flows. CNBC (October 6) counted nearly 20 ships attacked in a month while exports rebounded; a sustained drop in flows would extend the refiner and producer leads.
• The pre-midterm pledge. Whether the "no attack" line (CNBC, October 8) holds against reports of planning for renewed operations.
• Exxon's base pivot, the cleanest breakout trigger on the board.
• Refiners at RSI 70: an extension or a reset into Valero's October 22 report (provider date).
• Services and the 200-day: $OIH needs 0.5%.
• Missing receipts. October 9 captures and news pulls, needed for Friday's refiner pullback and metals bounce.

• geopolitical (2026-10-09 settled close, fetched 2026-10-09 20:34 UTC; table values via bindings; Exxon's base pivot from the same row)
• 2026-10-02-geopolitical-risk (prior edition)
• 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-09.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-08-market-brief (FRED 10-year as of October 7, geopolitical-lane leaders, tankers, airlines read); 2026-10-07-market-brief (Fed minutes, dollar, metals); 2026-10-05-market-brief (crude on October 5)
• Captures: Semafor, Yemen's Saudi-backed counterattack; Iran says Hormuz remains closed; Bloomberg, oil news for October 5; Semafor, oil drops as Hormuz traffic rebounds; Bloomberg, gold steadies as dollar strengthens on European debt risks; CNBC, Hormuz exports vulnerable to stepped-up tanker attacks; Semafor, Bulgarian tankers struck in Black Sea; Bloomberg, oil news for October 8; CNBC, oil falls as IEA members prioritize diesel release; CNBC, Chevron CEO on a diesel export ban; CNBC, home heating oil prices; CNBC, Rubio on Tehran; Bloomberg, dollar nears new high of the year; Bloomberg, gold rises after Trump's Iran pledge; Bloomberg, Fed minutes show hawkish unity; CNBC, oil jumps as Iran steps up tanker attacks, hurricane threatens Gulf production; Semafor, Houthi strikes on Riyadh; CNBC, Treasury sanctions 17 tankers; CNBC, Trump says US will not attack Iran before midterm election; CNBC, options traders call a bond bottom; Bloomberg, Musalem on rates; Benzinga, ExxonMobil on Thursday
• Filings (bodies unread): SEC, Devon 8-K filed October 8; SEC, EOG 8-K filed October 8; SEC, SLB 8-K filed October 6; SEC, Chevron 8-K filed October 6; SEC, Phillips 66 8-K filed October 5
• News receipts checked: pulled October 8 for XOM (Benzinga methane item), CVX, COP, EOG, VLO, PSX, USO, UNG, GLD, TLT (quote pages otherwise); older pulls for OXY and OIH (July 14), DVN (June 21), SLB (September 19), HAL (October 1), XLE (September 30), XOP (September 18), GDX (September 24), SLV (August 25), UUP (October 1); defense receipts as listed in the defense-contractors scan. Nothing dated October 9. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 3–9 for these names; earnings dates from research/stock-events/ (HAL 2026-10-20, VLO 2026-10-22, PSX 2026-10-28, XOM and CVX 2026-10-30; provider dates).