Data as-of the 2026-10-02 settled close. Geopolitical framing is drawn from the desk's October 1 brief and captures dated September 30 and October 1; October 2 captures (the jobs report, the G7 reserve release) landed after this was drafted and are noted below.

The war is paying through oil, not through the classic havens. Producers, refiners and the oil funds are above their 200-day averages with large one-year gains, while gold, silver, the miners and every prime defense contractor are under theirs and the long bond is in capitulation-tier RSI. On October 1, CNBC reported Brent up more than 4% on a report of a third US carrier group heading to the Middle East, the desk's brief relayed the week's fifth tanker strike inside the US-protected Hormuz lane, and Treasury announced further Iran sanctions (CNBC). Against that, CNBC reported September 30 that Hormuz crude exports are back at prewar levels though fuel shipments remain constrained, and that Tehran received a US proposal after Qatar talks while Trump denied offering sanctions relief. Escalation and diplomacy are both live; the tape is rewarding energy and not much else.

Upstream producers are in deep-pullback-in-intact-trend territory at worst: every one is above its 200-day with a one-year gain of roughly 28% to 47%. Services are the weak side of energy: $HAL is oversold and about 10% under its 200-day, $SLB is under its line, and $OIH sits just under it, even with one-year gains of 30% to 47%. Refiners are the extended leaders; $VLO's year is up well over 100% and it is above RSI 65, which is chase territory, not an entry.

The havens are the surprise. Bloomberg reported gold gaining on retreating yields on October 1, but bullion, silver and the gold miners all settle under their 200-day averages; the dollar fund is above RSI 70 after its best month since June (Bloomberg, September 30). The long Treasury fund is down on the year with RSI in the low 20s after the 10-year touched a 24-year high on October 1 before backing off (CNBC, Bloomberg). Risk-off is being expressed through rates and the dollar, not through gold.

Defense is covered in its own scan; the short version is that all six primes in this list are under their 200-days.

$TLT (down on the year, RSI in the low 20s), $UNG (down on the year, under its 200-day), and the rate-sensitive housing and euro positions in the macro-commodities scan are where the tape is paying for the rate shock rather than the war.

• Hormuz diplomacy versus tanker strikes — which headline thread dominates; CNBC's September 30 Hormuz export report relies on continued US escort.
• The jobs report's effect on the 10-year and the dollar (payrolls +29,000 against 84,000 expected, CNBC, October 2; Bloomberg reported the dollar falling and Treasury yields climbing that day).
• Refiners at RSI 63 to 66 — an extension or a reset.
• Gold and the miners reclaiming their 200-days.
• Any prime retaking its 200-day as the first sign of a war premium.

• geopolitical (2026-10-02 close; table values via bindings)
• 2026-09-25-geopolitical-risk (prior edition)
• 2026-10-01-market-brief
• 2026-10-01-cnbc-brent-oil-jumps-more-than-4-as-u-s-reportedly-sends-third-ai-108370821; 2026-10-01-cnbc-treasury-sanctions-operation-targets-iran-s-auto-rail-indust-108371119.md; 2026-10-01-bloomberg-gold-gains-as-yields-retreat-despite-lingering-inflation-ris-tm74w1kk3nyc00.md; 2026-10-01-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-slides-after-hitting-highest-levels-i-108370863.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-crude-oil-exports-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-hit-prewar-le-108369283.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-receives--108370034.md; 2026-09-30-bloomberg-dollar-powers-to-best-month-since-june-on-fed-s-inflation-fi-tm39b5kk3nyc00.md
• October 2 captures (landed after drafting): CNBC, Labor market faltered in September — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html; CNBC, Oil prices lower as G7 nations to release diesel stocks — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/oil-wti-brent-diesel-stock-release-europe.html; Bloomberg, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/g7-to-release-up-to-100-millions-of-barrels-of-diesel-and-oil; Bloomberg, Dollar falls after soft jobs data — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/dollar-falls-as-traders-pare-fed-hike-bets-after-soft-jobs-data; Bloomberg, Treasury yields climb — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-02/treasury-yields-climb-add-to-weekly-gains-closing-bell-video