Data as-of the 2026-08-28 settled close. Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math.

Note up front: the macro news lane has carried a Strait-of-Hormuz disruption and a March Iran-war OPEC production cut as background items for several scans running — both are months old, not fresh catalysts, and nothing below should be read as a live event. This file is a standing scenario check on the geopolitical-risk complex, not a report that a crisis is happening today.

The oil complex is cooling from its most extended readings while staying comfortably positive on both the short and long window, and the safe-haven complex just cracked at its edges — gold slipped below its own 200-day this scan, while long bonds ticked marginally better rather than worse. Every upstream, services, and ETF name in the oil complex is still positive over the trailing year and above its own 200-day (XOM +38.25% 1Y, COP +32.40% 1Y, HAL +59.88% 1Y), but RSI across the group came down sharply from overbought territory two scans ago. Defense's synchronized weekly decline from the prior scan has broken up — most primes are flat to modestly negative this week — though LHX and BA both got measurably worse on the trailing year underneath that calm. TLT actually improved slightly (-4.98% 1Y, -4.1% vs its 200-day) versus the prior scan, still the weakest haven on a trailing-year basis but no longer deteriorating.

Upstream

Services

• Every upstream and services name here is positive on the trailing year (+15.29% to +59.88%) and above its own 200-day (+4.7% to +18.2%) — the complex is cooling from its hottest readings, not breaking.
• SLB is the firmest read at RSI 70.9, near overbought — the only name in this section still extended.
• Refiners VLO ($352.36, 1Y +133.10%, vs 200-day +49.9%) and PSX ($244.01, 1Y +83.70%, vs 200-day +43.9%) remain on file — downstream margin plays running even harder than the upstream names above, though both cooled slightly from the prior scan.

• Every energy ETF except UNG is positive on both the trailing year and vs its 200-day — UNG remains the clear outlier, tagged collapse.
• XLE and XOP both cooled off their prior breakout/overbought reads (RSI now 62.1 and 62.3, versus 71.7 and 71.9 two scans ago) while staying well above their 200-days — a de-escalation of the most stretched positions in the complex, not a reversal.

• Gold, silver, and miners are all still up sharply on the trailing year (+29.79% to +68.98%), but GLD is the new crack in this group: it's now 1.4% below its own 200-day, versus +2.4% above it on the prior (2026-08-22) scan.
• TLT remains the one confirmed long-horizon laggard among the havens (-4.98% 1Y) but ticked marginally better versus the prior scan (vs 200-day gap narrowed from -5.2% to -4.1%) — not confirming a haven bid, but not deteriorating further either.
• The dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the year (+2.88%) — neither a haven bid nor a debasement story, still rangebound.

The prior scan's synchronized whole-book weekly decline has broken up — this week's moves range from roughly flat (LMT, RTX) to modestly down (DFEN -6.03%). LMT, RTX, GD, ITA, PPA, and DFEN remain positive on the trailing year underneath that calm; NOC, LHX, and BA are genuinely negative on both horizons, and LHX and BA both got measurably worse versus the prior scan. Full sector detail, including the small-cap supply chain (BWXT, LEU, TTMI, GE), is in the companion 2026-08-28-defense-contractors.md scan.

Two names on file would be the clearest casualties if a Hormuz-style disruption actually re-escalated — this is a scenario read, not a report on current price action, since no fresh catalyst is on file this session. BA remains negative on both the trailing year (-11.15%, worse than the prior scan's -4.57%) and vs its 200-day (-4.6%); its commercial-aviation business carries direct fuel-cost and travel-demand exposure that would widen in a supply disruption. TLT, despite ticking marginally better this scan, is still negative on the trailing year (-4.98%) and would be pressured further by an oil-driven inflation shock. Within defense itself, NOC and LHX remain the names already underperforming on a long-horizon basis (-7.20% and -5.13% 1Y) — the sector isn't a uniform place to hide even on its own numbers.

Framed as a standing scenario, not a live call: the oil complex (upstream, services, ETFs) has cooled from its hottest readings but is still strong across every long-horizon window in this file, so a genuine supply-disruption scenario would extend an existing trend rather than start one — SLB (RSI 70.9) has the least room left before extended, with the rest of the complex now further from overbought than two scans ago. The safe-haven bid, if one showed up, has historically favored gold/silver/miners over Treasuries in this book — but GLD's slip below its 200-day this scan is worth watching as a signal the metals leg of that bid may be losing steam even as TLT stabilizes. Defense would still be the wildcard: this scan's return to a calmer, more differentiated tape (rather than a synchronized decline) argues the market isn't currently pricing a fresh escalation into the primes, even though most of them sit on intact multi-year uptrends that a real catalyst could reactivate.

• Whether GLD's slip below its 200-day (-1.4%) is a one-scan wobble or the start of a genuine cooling in the precious-metals leg of the haven bid.
• Whether SLB (RSI 70.9) cools from its extended read or keeps running — now the only name left near overbought in the oil complex.
• Whether TLT's marginal improvement (vs 200-day gap narrowing from -5.2% to -4.1%) continues or reverses — the clearest test of whether duration is stabilizing as a crisis-loser candidate.
• Whether LHX and BA's worsening trailing-year numbers (LHX -3.40%→-5.13%, BA -4.57%→-11.15%) keep deteriorating or find a floor.
• Whether the oil complex's broad RSI cooling (XLE 71.7→62.1, XOP 71.9→62.3) resolves into a fresh push toward highs or a deeper pullback — COP (-4.07% off its 52-week high), VLO (-0.18%), and PSX (-1.19%) are the tightest-to-high names left.

Versus the 2026-08-22 scan: the oil complex broadly cooled from overbought/breakout RSI readings (XLE 71.7→62.1, XOP 71.9→62.3, COP 74.0→61.3) while every trailing-year number stayed comfortably positive — a de-escalation of the most stretched positions, not a break in trend. Gold (GLD) is the notable new crack: RSI fell from 71.2 to 54.6 and it moved from 2.4% above its 200-day to 1.4% below it. TLT moved the opposite direction from what the prior scan flagged as a risk — instead of widening further, its 200-day gap narrowed from -5.2% to -4.1%. Defense's synchronized whole-book weekly decline did not repeat this scan; in its place, LHX and BA both showed clearly worse trailing-year numbers (LHX -3.40%→-5.13%, BA -4.57%→-11.15%), sharpening the split between intact-trend and genuinely-weak primes that the prior scan first identified.