Data as-of the 2026-08-21 settled close (Friday's close). Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math.

Note up front: the macro news lane this week carried a Strait-of-Hormuz disruption and a March Iran-war OPEC production cut (-27%) as background items — both are months old, not fresh catalysts, and nothing below should be read as a live event. This file is a standing scenario check on the geopolitical-risk complex, not a report that a crisis is happening today.

The oil complex is strong on both the short and long window — a rare case where 7D/30D and the trailing year fully agree — while the safe-haven complex disagrees with itself: gold, silver, and miners are up big over the trailing year, but the dollar is flat and long bonds are a genuine multi-year loser. Every upstream, services, and ETF name in the oil complex is positive over the trailing year and comfortably above its own 200-day (XOM +51.16% 1Y, COP +42.30% 1Y, HAL +66.07% 1Y). Defense, by contrast, is down across the board this week with no dated catalyst on file — cause unknown — though most primes remain in intact multi-year uptrends underneath that. TLT is the one confirmed long-horizon casualty among the havens: -5.05% 1Y and 5.2% below its 200-day.

Upstream

Services

• Every upstream and services name here is positive on the trailing year (+29.15% to +66.07%) and above its own 200-day (+2.8% to +22.0%) — short-term and long-term agree, unlike most of the rest of this book.
• COP is the firmest read at RSI 74.0, near overbought and just -0.74% off its 52-week high — the closest-to-extended name in the whole file.
• Refiners VLO ($348.86, 1Y +148.67%, vsSMA200 +51.2%) and PSX ($242.87, 1Y +95.15%, vsSMA200 +45.5%) are also on file — downstream margin plays rather than crude-price plays, both running even harder than the upstream names above.

• Every energy ETF except UNG is positive on both the trailing year and vs its 200-day — UNG is the clear outlier, negative on both (-19.44% 1Y, -16.2% vs 200-day), tagged collapse.
• XLE (RSI 71.7, breakout) and XOP (RSI 71.9) are the two overbought reads in this section, both within 2% of their 52-week highs.

• Gold, silver, and miners are all up sharply on the trailing year (+37.77% to +81.22%) — the metals complex is the real haven bid this scan.
• TLT is the one confirmed long-horizon laggard among the havens: negative on the trailing year (-5.05%) and 5.2% below its 200-day — bonds are not confirming a haven bid.
• The dollar (UUP) is essentially flat over the year (+1.09%) — neither a haven bid nor a debasement story, just rangebound.

Every name here is down on the week with no dated catalyst on file — cause unknown. Most (LMT, RTX, GD, ITA, PPA, DFEN) remain positive on the trailing year and above their 200-day underneath that weekly move; NOC, LHX, and BA are genuinely negative on both horizons. Full sector detail, including the small-cap supply chain (BWXT, LEU, TTMI, GE), is in the companion 2026-08-22-defense-contractors.md scan.

Two names on file would be the clearest casualties if a Hormuz-style disruption actually re-escalated — this is a scenario read, not a report on current price action, since no fresh catalyst is on file this session. TLT is already the closest thing to a live casualty: -5.05% 1Y, 5.2% below its 200-day — an oil-driven inflation shock would pressure long duration further. BA is already negative on both the trailing year (-4.57%) and vs its 200-day (-2.4%); its commercial-aviation business carries direct fuel-cost and travel-demand exposure that would widen in a supply disruption. Within defense itself, NOC and LHX are the names already underperforming on a long-horizon basis (-7.73% and -3.40% 1Y) — the sector isn't a uniform place to hide even on its own numbers.

Framed as a standing scenario, not a live call: the oil complex (upstream, services, ETFs) is already strong across every long-horizon window in this file, so a genuine supply-disruption scenario would extend an existing trend rather than start one — COP (RSI 74.0) and XOP/XLE (RSI 71.9/71.7) have the least room left before extended. The safe-haven bid, if one showed up, has historically favored gold/silver/miners over Treasuries in this book — GLD/SLV/GDX are already the metals complex's leadership while TLT is the one haven asset already breaking down. Defense would be the wildcard: this week's synchronized decline across the whole complex argues the market isn't currently pricing a fresh escalation into the primes, even though most of them sit on intact multi-year uptrends that a real catalyst could reactivate.

• Whether GDX (RSI 75.3, parabolic) and SIL cool from this stretch or keep running — the most extended reads in the metals complex.
• Whether TLT's -5.2% vs-SMA200 gap widens (confirming duration as the crisis-loser candidate) or closes.
• Whether UNG's divergence from the rest of the energy complex (-19.44% 1Y against a broadly strong group) resolves or deepens.
• Whether COP (-0.74% off its 52-week high), XOP (-0.89%), and XLE (-1.64%) push through to fresh highs — the tightest-to-high cluster in this file.
• Whether defense's synchronized 7D decline (every name in the Quick Look table down this week) reverses next scan or continues — still unexplained by any dated catalyst on file.