Data as-of the 2026-09-11 settled close. Numbers read directly from geopolitical — no prose math.

Oil kept extending, defense kept sinking, and gold and long bonds both took a direct, dated hit rather than a haven bid — the rates/inflation read from the prior scan sharpened instead of fading. This desk's own Sept 10 market brief names the specific catalyst: "US crude hit $100 a barrel and the ten-year Treasury yield topped 4.9%, its highest since 2023, with a Treasury buyback operation that bought fewer bonds than expected adding to the selloff" (CNBC and Bloomberg, September 10) — the same session "gold lost 1.7% and silver 5.3%" while "the long-bond fund fell 1.2%." This file shows that signature directly: USO is now +112.19% 1Y and 41.9% above its 200-day (RSI 71.9, near overbought); TLT's RSI fell to 35.2 with its 200-day gap widening to -6.1% (from -4.7%); GLD's gap widened to -4.1% (from -2.1%). Defense — the sector this conflict most directly names — kept selling off rather than catching a war premium: RTX is now the only prime still positive vs its own 200-day.

Upstream

Services

• Upstream producers accelerated across the board this scan: XOM's RSI rose to 61.6 (from 51.0), CVX moved into a breakout regime, and COP now leads the group at +45.92% 1Y and +20.8% above its 200-day.
• Services cooled from last scan's near-overbought readings — SLB's RSI eased from 62.2 to 55.5, HAL's from 62.9 to 52.5 — even as both stayed solidly positive on the trailing year.
• Refiners VLO ($390.42, 1Y +147.74%, RSI 78.6) and PSX ($259.47, 1Y +95.80%, RSI 74.4) remain the hottest names in the whole complex; VLO pushed further into overbought territory versus the prior scan's already-extended RSI 75.2.

• USO's 200-day cushion widened from +32.1% to +41.9% this scan — the strongest, most extended read in the entire complex, and its RSI (71.9) is now close to overbought.
• XOP moved into a breakout regime at RSI 70.2, also near-overbought; XLE followed with its own breakout at +17.9% above its 200-day.
• UNG remains this file's standing outlier, worsening further into a collapse regime (-18.12% 1Y, -12.7% vs its 200-day).

• Gold and silver both widened their gap below the 200-day this scan (GLD -2.1%→-4.1%, SLV -8.4%→-11.4%) during the exact dated session the Sept 10 brief reports gold lost 1.7% and silver 5.3% — the clearest cross-asset tell in this file that the market is not treating the current environment as a fear event.
• TLT deteriorated further: RSI down to 35.2 (from 45.2), its 200-day gap widening to -6.1% (from -4.7%), and its trailing-year loss deepening to -10.48% (from -5.75%) — consistent with the same brief's report that "the long-bond fund fell 1.2%" the same session.
• The dollar (UUP) stays essentially flat over the year (+2.63%) — still no currency-debasement or dollar-haven story here.

The sector's pullback deepened rather than reversed this scan. LHX is now the worst name on both horizons — negative 1Y (-12.5%, from -6.06%) and 21.7% below its 200-day, in a collapse regime and RSI 24.9 (capitulation tier). RTX is the only prime still above its own 200-day (+2.1%, narrowed from +4.0%) while remaining the strongest trailing-year performer (+25.39%). NOC and BA stay negative on the trailing year. Full sector detail, including the small-cap supply chain (LEU, BWXT, TTMI, GE), is in the companion 2026-09-11-defense-contractors.md scan.

TLT is the clearest, currently-worsening casualty: now -10.48% on the trailing year (from -5.75%) and 6.1% below its 200-day (from -4.7%), directly consistent with this desk's Sept 10 brief reporting the long-bond fund down 1.2% the same session bond yields spiked. Within defense, LHX has become the sector's clearest broken-trend name (negative on both 1Y and vs SMA200, collapse regime), and NOC remains negative on the trailing year as well. BA carries a double exposure — its commercial-aviation business faces direct fuel-cost pressure from the oil spike on top of its own negative trailing-year defense-segment trend (-4.34%).

This remains a live, sourced cross-asset picture rather than a scenario read. The oil complex (upstream, services, ETFs) is confirmed running hotter than one scan ago — USO +112.19% 1Y and RSI 71.9, refiner VLO now RSI 78.6 — so any further escalation would extend an already fully-extended move rather than start a new one. The safe-haven bid a textbook crisis playbook would expect has not shown up and, per the Sept 10 dated receipt, actively reversed: gold and silver both took a direct hit the same session oil and rates spiked, and TLT deteriorated further rather than catching a duration bid. Defense — the sector most directly named by any conflict narrative — remains the biggest surprise: instead of a war premium, the book's worst name (LHX) fell into a full collapse regime this scan, tracking the broader, dated rate shock (10-year yield above 4.9%, per CNBC and Bloomberg, Sept 10) rather than the war narrative itself.

• Whether gold and silver's widening gap below their 200-days (GLD -4.1%, SLV -11.4%) closes or deepens further if the ten-year yield keeps climbing — the clearest test of whether this stays a rates story.
• Whether TLT's deterioration (-10.48% 1Y, -6.1% vs its 200-day, RSI 35.2) continues toward oversold or stabilizes.
• Whether defense's LHX (RSI 24.9, collapse) finds a floor or the sector-wide pullback (LMT, ITA, PPA all below their 200-days) deepens further — none of it has been explained by a defense-specific catalyst on file; the working explanation remains the broad rate shock this desk's Sept 10 brief documents.
• Whether refiners (VLO RSI 78.6, PSX RSI 74.4) cool from overbought or push through to fresh highs as the oil bid continues.
• The trigger this desk's own Sept 10 brief flagged for a regime change: a ten-year Treasury yield at 5.00%, or high-yield credit spreads at 3.50 points on two consecutive readings (spread was 2.71% as of that session).

Every figure above is read directly from the pre-computed summary for this watchlist as of the 2026-09-11 close — no percentages were recalculated by hand. The 1Y and vs-SMA200 columns are the long-horizon check that separates "deep pullback in an intact trend" from "trend genuinely broken"; RSI/trend/regime are short-window classifiers only.

Versus the 2026-09-04 scan: the oil complex accelerated further — upstream RSI rose across the board (XOM 51.0→61.6, COP 62.8→67.5, DVN 57.2→66.8) while services cooled slightly (SLB 62.2→55.5, HAL 62.9→52.5). USO's 200-day cushion widened from +32.1% to +41.9%. Gold and silver both deteriorated: GLD's 200-day gap widened from -2.1% to -4.1%, SLV's from -8.4% to -11.4%, tracking this desk's Sept 10 brief reporting gold -1.7% and silver -5.3% in a single dated session. TLT worsened materially — RSI fell from 45.2 to 35.2, its 200-day gap widened from -4.7% to -6.1%, its trailing-year loss deepened from -5.75% to -10.48% — reversing its brief prior-scan stabilization. Defense deepened its sector-wide pullback rather than reversing it: LHX's RSI fell from 31.7 to 24.9 and its regime flipped to collapse; RTX remains the sole prime still above its 200-day, though that cushion narrowed from +4.0% to +2.1%. Refiners VLO and PSX both pushed further into overbought (RSI 75.2→78.6, 74.8→74.4).

• geopolitical (2026-09-11 close)
• 2026-09-04-geopolitical-risk (prior scan, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-10-market-brief ("Rates Sold the Builders, Not the Buyers" — CNBC/Bloomberg, September 10)
• 2026-09-11-defense-contractors (companion sector detail)