Data as-of the 2026-10-16 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 12–16). News pulls for the individual names predate Friday's session, so Friday's single-day moves are tape unless a dated item is cited.

The geopolitical board was the strongest on the tape and the war is still paying through oil. Twenty-four of 28 names rose Friday. $XOM, $CVX, $COP and $EOG closed within 0.23% of their 52-week highs at RSI 70.3 to 74.7, the US crude fund gained 9.15% on the week, and the refiners sit 53% to 62% above their 200-days. Gold, silver and the miners fell with the hike odds and stay under their 200-day averages; the defense primes bounced 3.91% to 8.34% and are still under theirs.

Producers broke out. Over five sessions $COP rose 9.25%, $EOG 6.65%, $CVX 6.14%, $XOM 5.94%, $DVN 5.12% and $OXY 3.78%; the energy-sector fund ($XLE) gained 4.86% and the exploration fund ($XOP) 4.63%. All six gained 2.46% to 3.53% Friday. $XOM, $COP and $EOG were reclassified to breakout: Exxon closed just above its $178.69 base pivot on normal volume (1.01 times), ConocoPhillips above its $143.13 pivot, and EOG above its $155.00 pivot on 1.74 times volume. Every producer is above its 200-day on a one-year gain of 47.33% to 68.58%, and four of six are now at RSI 70 or higher (the October 9 range was 52.6 to 64.2). Bloomberg (October 16) reported Brent touching $110 for the first time since May as hopes of supply relief dwindled, and CNBC (October 16) tied the Friday jump to Iran's escalated Hormuz attacks that week.

Refiners stayed extended but quiet: $VLO rose 2.53% on the week and 0.15% Friday on 0.55 times volume, $PSX 5.39% on the week to RSI 70.7. They are 62.3% and 53.0% above their 200-days on years of +184.36% and +128.4%. Services still lag the barrels: $SLB sits 3.0% and $HAL 6.1% under their 200-days and the services fund ($OIH) 2.8% under its own (0.5% on October 9), despite 1.48% to 2.34% Friday gains. On supply, the October 15 market brief carried the IEA completing its 100 million-barrel release and adding more than 20 million barrels of diesel (CNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg).

The havens still did not catch a war bid. Gold fell 0.67% on the week and sits 7.9% under its 200-day with a −3.64% year; silver lost 5.97% and sits 21.2% under; the miners fund ($GDX) is 3.7% under (2% on October 9, per the October 9 macro scan). Bloomberg tied the October 14 gold slump to Fed-hike wagers (as carried in the October 14 market brief), and gold edged lower into Warsh's October 15 speech. The dollar cooled: $UUP RSI fell from 69.9 to 57.7, and Bloomberg (October 16) had its worst week in over a month. The long-bond fund ($TLT) rose 2.65% on the week to RSI 56.4 (34.8 on October 9) and sits 5.8% under its 200-day (8.4% on October 9), still down 12.36% on the year. September CPI printed +0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and September PPI 6.3% on the year (CNBC, as carried in the October 14 and 15 market briefs).

Equities fell into the oil spike. Bloomberg (October 16) called it the S&P 500's worst week since June, and the October 16 conditions digest has the VIX at 19.99, up 21.5% on the day. The four decliners on this board Friday were all havens or gas: $UNG (−3.88%), $SLV (−0.79%), $UUP (−0.28%) and $GLD (−0.18%).

Against the October 9 edition (history, for comparison):

• Producers went from intact to extended. $XOM, $COP and $EOG moved to breakout classifications; RSI now 61.8 to 74.7 against 52.6 to 64.2. The US crude fund's week went from +0.56% to +9.15%.
• Refiners held their lead without adding to it. $PSX crossed to RSI 70.7 (69.6 before); $VLO eased to 66.4 (69.8).
• Services slipped further from their line. $OIH is 2.8% under its 200-day, from 0.5%.
• Havens deteriorated. The miners' gap widened from 2% to 3.7%, silver's from 16.7% to 21.2% (October 9 macro scan); $GLD's one-year turned negative.
• Bonds and the dollar reset. $TLT left oversold (34.8 to 56.4) and is back over its 20-day; $UUP left the edge of RSI 70.
• Defense primes bounced. Weekly moves went from under 1% to +3.91% to +8.34%; $NOC left collapse for downtrend. Still zero of six primes above their 200-days.

Twelve of 28 names close above their 200-day averages, the same twelve as October 9: six producers, both energy funds, the crude fund, both refiners and the dollar. Twenty-one of 28 are above their 20-day.

The tables are raw screen evidence from the October 16 settled close. Use the one-year and vs-200-day columns to separate long trends from weekly noise. Energy names above their 200-days with 47% to 184% years are intact trends; a pullback there is a flag, but names at RSI 70 and 0.1% under their highs are extended. Havens and defense names under their 200-days have long trends under test or broken. World events carry their capture dates; none is treated as the cause of a single name's move unless the item names it.

• Six of six above their 200-days and 20-days. Exxon's base is 9.6 weeks, ConocoPhillips' 8.4 and EOG's 23.6; all three are only just over their pivots, so a retest is the natural test.
• Exxon and Chevron are scheduled to report October 30 (provider dates); ConocoPhillips and EOG November 5.

• Services carry positive years (+50.36% to +53.53%) but sit under or on their lines while producers are at highs: the market is paying for barrels, not drilling. Halliburton is scheduled to report October 20, Valero October 22, Schlumberger October 23 and Phillips 66 October 28 (provider dates, the last estimated).

• Crude outran the equities this week (+9.15% against $XLE +4.86%), reversing October 9's gap in which the equity funds led. Natural gas fell with no gas-specific cause on file.

• Gold is trading the rate path: it fell on hike wagers and did not rise when the dollar cooled. The dollar is the only haven still above its 200-day (3.9%).
• The bond bounce is real but unconfirmed: $TLT is over its 20-day and 5.8% under its 200-day. Bloomberg (October 16) had Treasuries falling Friday as Treasury stayed silent on long-end sales and oil climbed; the fund still finished flat.

Five primes gained 2.14% to 4.05% Friday and 3.91% to 8.34% on the week, after moving under 1% a week earlier. The full read, including the TTM Technologies and nuclear drops, is in the defense-contractors scan.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $SLV (37.2) only, inside a downtrend 21.2% under its 200-day.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — everything else. Five names are at RSI 70 or higher: $COP (74.7), $XOM (73.0), $CVX (70.8), $PSX (70.7) and $EOG (70.3); $XLE (69.1) and $VLO (66.4) are next. Last week no name on the board was over 70.

Conditions, not orders. Names at RSI 70 and 0.1% under highs have no zone until they come back.

• The long bond. $TLT is down 12.36% on the year and 5.8% under its 200-day; the dated headwinds are hot inflation prints (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3% on the year) and the October 28 Fed meeting, where hike odds were 39% on October 14 (CNBC).
• Gold and silver. Both fell with the hike odds, not the dollar; Bloomberg (October 16) says the dollar had its worst week in over a month while bullion still lost ground.
• Natural gas. $UNG fell 3.88% Friday and is down on the year; no cause on file.
• Growth equities (not on this board). Bloomberg (October 16) had AI fears hitting chipmakers in the S&P 500's worst week since June.

The state of the war as of October 16:

• Exxon's $178.69 pivot, ConocoPhillips' $143.13 and EOG's $155.00. Holding them on a pullback keeps the breakouts valid; a close back inside the bases would turn Friday into a spike.
• Brent at $110. Whether the Brent fund (RSI 69.9 in the macro summary) clears its high or resets; Iran headlines set the direction.
• Refiners at RSI 70. Valero is scheduled to report October 22 and Phillips 66 October 28 (provider dates).
• The October 28 Fed meeting and the long bond's 200-day: $TLT needs 5.8%.
• Defense 200-days. RTX, Northrop and GE report October 20, Lockheed October 22 (estimated); $RTX is 0.6% under its line.
• Metals. $GDX 3.7% under its 200-day; gold's year is now negative.
• Missing receipts. News pulls dated after Friday's session for the producers, metals and primes.

• geopolitical (2026-10-16 settled close, fetched 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC; table values via bindings; base pivots from the same rows); macro-commodities (Brent fund RSI)
• 2026-10-09-geopolitical-risk and 2026-10-09-macro-commodities.md (prior editions)
• 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-16-market-conditions (VIX, S&P 500 week); 2026-10-13-market-brief, 2026-10-14-market-brief.md and 2026-10-15-market-brief.md (CPI, PPI, gold slump, Hormuz and Aramco items, IEA release, Fed meeting odds)
• Captures: Bloomberg, Brent taps $110; CNBC, Brent touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks; CNBC, Trump says he won't use nuclear weapons or send ground troops to Iran; Bloomberg, S&P 500 worst week since June; Bloomberg, dollar worst week in over a month; Bloomberg, long-term Treasuries fall; CNBC, Warsh withholds rate signal; Bloomberg, BOE chief on the energy shock; Bloomberg, gold edges lower ahead of Warsh speech; Semafor, Houthi strikes expose Saudi vulnerabilities; Semafor, the UAE's Zero Hormuz strategy
• Event calendar: research/stock-events/ (2026-10-20 HAL, RTX, NOC, GE; 2026-10-22 VLO, LMT; 2026-10-23 SLB; 2026-10-28 PSX; 2026-10-30 XOM, CVX; 2026-11-05 COP, EOG; yfinance provider dates, some estimated).
• News receipts checked: pulled Thursday evening (October 15 PT) for XOM, CVX, COP, EOG, VLO, PSX, USO, UNG, GLD, with quote and reference pages only and nothing dated to Friday; older pulls for HAL and OIH (October 12), XOP (October 9), SLB (September 18), XLE (September 29), GDX (September 24), SLV (August 25), UUP (September 30), OXY (July 14), DVN (June 21); TLT quote pages only (Friday after the close); defense receipts as listed in the defense-contractors scan. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 12–16 for these names.