← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 11, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 84 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-geopolitical-risk ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-11-geopolitical-risk.md scan sluggeopolitical-risk source typescan-archive
The Iran/Hormuz crisis is now fully priced into energy markets — USO at $107.93 (RSI 81, +36.8% 30D) is at extreme overbought levels while upstream producers (OXY +12.5% 30D, EOG +8.2% 30D) continue to benefit. Defense contractors hold strong with golden crosses across the board. Gold ($476) is the steady safe haven. The crisis has created clear winners (US E &P , defense), clear losers (oil importers, housing, EM), and a new set of oversold contrarian opportunities.
Quick Snapshot Overall 🔴 CRISIS ELEVATED — Oil extreme overbought, defense consolidating, safe havens holding Biggest Winner USO +55.9% 3M, +36.8% 30D — crude oil parabolic, RSI 81 Best Positioned OXY (+12.5% 30D, +28.9% 3M), EOG (+8.2% 30D, +17.9% 3M) — pure US upstream Safe Haven GLD +21.1% 3M, RSI 56, golden cross — working as intended Biggest Losers XHB/ITB RSI 27-29, INDA RSI 30 — housing and India in capitulation
Oil Producers Upstream Producers — Direct Crisis Beneficiaries Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Trend Signal OXY $53.12 62 +4.3% +1.8% +12.5% +28.9% -2.3% strong-up 🟢 Healthy — near highs EOG $127.89 63 +3.2% +2.2% +8.2% +17.9% -2.0% strong-up 🟢 Healthy — near highs CVX $186.29 59 +0.5% +0.5% +1.2% +24.8% -1.5% strong-up 🟢 Healthy COP $114.15 58 +1.5% -1.7% +3.4% +19.0% -4.5% strong-up 🟢 Healthy XOM $148.13 53 -1.4% -0.6% -4.1% +24.7% -5.8% strong-up 🟡 Lagging — integrated drag DVN $43.70 54 -0.7% +0.4% -2.8% +17.2% -2.9% strong-up 🟡 Neutral
Who wins from crisis oil?
OXY EOG CVX and COP XOM at -4.1% 30D is the surprise laggardDVN
Oil Services — Still Lagging Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal SLB $48.11 45 -3.9% -3.5% -6.7% +20.0% strong-up 🟡 Weak — below SMA20 HAL $35.34 58 +1.6% -1.3% +1.4% +22.0% strong-up 🟢 Healthy
Services companies benefit from drilling activity, not commodity prices. Crisis = supply disruption, not new drilling. SLB 's -6.7% 30D confirms services are NOT crisis beneficiaries.
Energy ETFs ETF Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Signal USO $107.93 81 ↑ +23.8% +17.6% +36.8% +55.9% -13.0% 🔴 Extreme Overbought XOP $159.00 63 +3.8% +1.8% +6.7% +20.4% -3.3% 🟢 Healthy XLE $55.60 60 +0.5% -0.1% +1.1% +22.0% -2.7% 🟢 Healthy OIH $382.26 55 -0.8% -0.6% +0.2% +26.0% -6.7% 🟡 Neutral UNG $12.88 55 +7.0% +4.3% +4.6% -1.6% -43.0% 🟡 Neutral
USO at RSI 81 is the most overbought asset in the entire scan universe.XOP (+6.7% 30D, RSI 63) is the better way to play the oil thesisE &P basket without USO 's contango risk.XLE (+1.1% 30D) is restrainedXOM , CVX ) and services names that lag. The "reasonable" energy entry.UNG -43% from 52-week high
Safe Havens Asset Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal GLD $476.25 56 +1.3% +0.8% +1.8% +21.1% strong-up 🟢 Working — golden cross SLV $77.88 51 +2.4% +4.8% +1.7% +35.2% weak-down 🟡 Mixed signals UUP $27.45 66 +1.1% -0.5% +2.3% +1.7% strong-up 🟠 Dollar strong TLT $88.28 46 -1.0% -0.2% +0.6% +0.8% strong-up 🟡 Bonds flat GDX $103.37 49 -2.6% -0.4% -2.5% +20.7% strong-up 🟡 Miners lagging gold
Gold is the clear winner. GLD at $476, RSI 56, golden cross, +21.1% 3M. Orderly uptrend, not overextended. The textbook crisis hedge.Dollar is strong (UUP +2.3% 30D) — flight to USD intact. This amplifies pain for non-dollar assets.Treasuries (TLT ) barely moving — +0.6% 30D. Bonds not catching a bid because the oil spike is reaccelerating inflation, preventing rate cuts. Normally bonds rally in crisis; not this time.Silver mixed — SLV +35.2% 3M is impressive but weak-down trend at SMA50. Industrial demand uncertainty.Gold miners NOT a safe haven. GDX -2.5% 30D while gold +1.8%. Energy costs eating margins.
Defense Quick Look Stock Price RSI 30D% 3M% Trend Signal LMT $648.78 54 +3.7% +37.4% strong-up 🟢 Healthy — golden cross RTX $206.98 56 +5.7% +17.1% strong-up 🟢 Healthy — near highs NOC $734.14 56 +8.5% +31.5% strong-up 🟢 Healthy — best momentum GD $353.79 48 +2.2% +4.0% weak-down 🟡 Neutral — lagging LHX $361.72 55 +6.7% +25.2% strong-up 🟢 Healthy BA $217.76 37 -7.8% +8.5% down 🟡 Approaching Oversold ITA $239.72 51 +3.8% +15.1% strong-up 🟡 Neutral — ETF at SMA20 DFEN $84.82 49 +9.7% +43.4% strong-up 🟡 Neutral — 3x leverage
Defense sector has fully priced in the geopolitical premium with +15-37% 3M gains across primes. All golden crosses intact. Now consolidating at healthy RSI levels (48-56 for primes).
See the full Defense Contractors Scan (file not in corpus) for detailed analysis.
Crisis Losers The flip side of the oil spike — who gets hurt:
Asset Price RSI 30D% 3M% Why It's Losing Signal ITB $96.85 27 ↓ -14.1% -5.7% Rate cuts impossible with oil inflation 🟢 Oversold XHB $104.34 29 ↓ -13.5% -4.1% Same — housing crushed by "higher for longer" 🟢 Oversold INDA $49.93 30 ↓ -6.7% -6.8% Oil importer + strong dollar = double pain, death cross 🟢 Oversold EWG $41.10 33 -6.7% -3.0% Export economy hit by energy costs + dollar 🟡 Approaching Oversold FXI $36.59 38 -7.3% -5.6% China weakness, tariff overhang 🟡 Weak EWJ $86.46 43 -8.0% +6.5% Japan — yen death cross, energy importer 🟡 Weak FXY $58.15 38 -3.1% -1.6% Yen death cross — unusual for risk-off 🔴 Broken FXE $107.18 36 -2.1% -0.9% Euro weak — European growth concerns 🟡 Weak SLB $48.11 45 -6.7% +20.0% Services don't benefit from supply disruption 🟡 Weak XOM $148.13 53 -4.1% +24.7% Integrated major — refining margins compress 🟡 Lagging
Key crisis losers pattern: Oil importers (India, Japan, Germany, China) and rate-sensitive assets (housing) are getting crushed. The strong dollar amplifies the pain for non-USD markets. Even within energy, integrated majors and services companies lag pure upstream E &P.
Crisis Playbook Phase 1: Immediate (Current)
Oil parabolic at RSI 81 — do NOT chase USO
Defense fully priced at +15-37% 3M — accumulate on pullbacks, don't chase
Gold is the safe haven that works — add on dips to $460-470
Phase 2: If Crisis Escalates
Oil breaks above $124 intraday high
Defense gets another leg up
Housing and EM selling accelerates
Gold breaks to new highs above $510 (GLD )
Dollar strengthens further, FXY /FXE make new lows
Phase 3: If Crisis De-escalates
Oil snaps back hard — USO could mean-revert to SMA20 ($87), a -19% drop
Housing (ITB /XHB ) and EM (INDA ) are the biggest rebound trades from oversold levels
Defense gives back some gains but golden crosses and spending commitments provide floor
Gold stays bid — geopolitical premium doesn't unwind overnight
Services (SLB ) and integrated majors (XOM ) outperform E &P in normalization
Positioning Framework Scenario Buy Sell/Trim Avoid Escalation GLD, XOP, OXY, ITA Housing (ITB/XHB) USO (too extended) De-escalation ITB, XHB, INDA, EWG, SLB USO, OXY (take profits) DFEN (leverage decay) Stalemate (base case) GLD, COP, CVX, ITA — USO, DFEN
What to Watch Trigger What It Means Action Strait of Hormuz reopening Oil snapback -15-20%, crisis losers bounce hard Buy ITB/XHB/INDA, sell USO/OXY Iran retaliates further Oil new highs, defense accelerates, EM crashes Add GLD, ITA; avoid all EM Fed emergency statement Signals rate concern, TLT rallies, housing bounces Buy TLT, XHB; reduce dollar (UUP) USO closes below SMA20 ($87) Oil crisis premium unwinding All-clear for crisis losers ITB breaks below $94 Housing capitulation complete Aggressive contrarian buy zone INDA breaks below $48 India structural downgrade Reassess India thesis entirely
Entry Zones Ticker Entry Zone RSI Action Notes ITB $94-$97 27 🔍 Watch Capitulation — biggest contrarian opportunity IF oil reverses XHB $100-$105 29 🔍 Watch Same thesis as ITB INDA $48-$50 30 🔍 Watch Oversold + death cross — high risk but deep value if crisis eases GLD $460-$476 56 📈 Accumulate Safe haven, golden cross, not overextended COP $108-$115 58 📈 Accumulate Quality E&P compounder above SMA20 CVX $180-$187 59 📈 Accumulate Integrated major near 52-week highs XLE $52-$56 60 📈 Accumulate Broad energy ETF — reasonable entry, not parabolic ITA $230-$240 51 📈 Accumulate Defense ETF at SMA20 — safest sector play ⚠️ USO — 81 ⚠️ Avoid RSI 81, +23.8% above SMA20 — extreme snapback risk ⚠️ DFEN — 49 ⚠️ Avoid 3x leverage decay after +43% 3M rally
Action Matrix Action Tickers Why ⚠️ AVOID USO RSI 81, parabolic — do NOT chase oil at these levels ⚠️ AVOID DFEN 3x leverage on sector up +43% 3M — risk/reward terrible 🔍 WATCH ITB, XHB RSI 27-29, housing in capitulation — biggest contrarian if oil reverses 🔍 WATCH INDA RSI 30, death cross — deep value but needs crisis de-escalation 🔍 WATCH OXY, EOG RSI 62-63, near overbought — take partial profits, don't add 📈 ACCUMULATE GLD RSI 56, golden cross, +21.1% 3M — THE safe haven 📈 ACCUMULATE COP, CVX RSI 58-59, strong-up trend, above SMA20 — quality energy with room 📈 ACCUMULATE XLE, XOP RSI 60-63, broad energy exposure without single-stock risk 📈 ACCUMULATE ITA RSI 51, defense ETF at SMA20 — geopolitical premium with diversification 🔒 HOLD LMT, NOC, RTX, LHX RSI 54-56, golden crosses — defense primes in healthy consolidation
What Changed (vs 2026-03-10) Item Previous Current Change USO 30D +33.7% +36.8% Oil still accelerating despite blow-off top concerns OXY 30D +18.9% +12.5% OXY cooling after extended run — still strong but normalizing ITB 30D -13.0% -14.1% Housing selloff deepened further INDA RSI ~31 30 India now at oversold threshold with death cross GDX 7D -11.2% -0.4% Gold miners stabilized after last week's crash TLT 30D — +0.6% Bonds barely moving — inflation fears blocking rate cut hopes
The Gold Key Discoveries Discovery Implication USO RSI 81 — most overbought asset in universe Blow-off top setup; mean reversion to SMA20 ($87) = -19% ITB RSI 27, XHB RSI 29, INDA RSI 30 — triple oversold Contrarian opportunities forming, need oil catalyst to trigger TLT +0.6% 30D — bonds NOT rallying in crisis Fed trapped — oil inflation prevents rate cuts even in geopolitical crisis All defense primes have golden crosses War premium is structural, not speculative — spending commitments multi-year XOM -4.1% 30D despite oil crisis Integrated majors are NOT pure oil plays — refining margin compression
Mistakes (Don't Repeat) Mistake Lesson Chasing USO above RSI 80 Parabolic moves end with violent reversals — the 03/09 $124-$104 candle proved it Assuming all energy = crisis winner XOM flat, SLB -6.7% — crisis benefits upstream E&P, not the whole energy complex Buying oversold without catalyst ITB/INDA are cheap but the driver (oil) hasn't reversed — patience
Open Questions
Has oil peaked at RSI 81 or does Hormuz disruption push to new highs?
When does TLT start catching a bid — is the inflation fear that dominant?
Is India's death cross a temporary dislocation or emerging structural problem?
How much defense spending is already priced in at +15-37% 3M? What's the ceiling?
Scan generated: 2026-03-11 | Data: pre-computed summaries with RSI, SMA20/50/200, trend signals. All numbers from geopolitical.json.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.