Geopolitical Risk Monitor
Geopolitical Risk Monitor
The geopolitical trade is a one-trick pony: OIL. Energy producers are at RSI 79-84 — extreme overbought. Defense has rolled over. Gold is crashing despite active war (dollar squeeze). The war premium is fully priced into oil and nowhere else.
Crisis Asset Dashboard
| Asset Class | Ticker | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 30D% | 3M% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil — Parabolic | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USO | $117.29 | 64.0 | strong-up | +52.2% | +43.1% | +68.5% | — |
| XLE | $61.53 | 81.2 | strong-up | +33.7% | +10.8% | +38.8% | — |
| XOP | $186.44 | 82.8 | strong-up | +39.6% | +25.0% | +49.8% | — |
| Oil Producers — Overbought | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EOG | $147.50 | 84.2 | strong-up | +28.9% | +18.9% | +42.3% | — |
| COP | $133.29 | 81.0 | strong-up | +38.6% | +17.5% | +45.0% | — |
| OXY | $64.36 | 80.7 | strong-up | +43.5% | +21.8% | +60.0% | — |
| CVX | $207.79 | 78.4 | strong-up | +31.2% | +11.3% | +39.0% | — |
| DVN | $51.33 | 79.3 | strong-up | +41.3% | +18.6% | +42.6% | — |
| XOM | $165.38 | 71.1 | strong-up | +36.7% | +8.5% | +38.1% | — |
| Oil Services | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HAL | $38.80 | 69.5 | strong-up | +45.0% | +8.3% | +38.5% | — |
| SLB | $52.32 | 64.2 | strong-up | +34.9% | +1.9% | +38.9% | — |
| OIH | $386.54 | 56.3 | strong-up | +35.8% | -0.8% | +35.9% | — |
| Safe Havens — Broken | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GLD | $400.73 | 30.8 | weak-down | +6.5% | -17.2% | +0.5% | — |
| GDX | $82.60 | 33.7 | weak-down | +7.8% | -27.5% | -9.5% | — |
| UUP | $27.81 | 62.6 | strong-up | +3.5% | +2.7% | +3.1% | — |
| Defense — Rolled Over | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LMT | $627.39 | 47.1 | weak-down | +24.4% | -4.2% | +29.0% | — |
| NOC | $692.13 | 42.5 | weak-down | +15.6% | -4.5% | +20.2% | — |
| GD | $355.39 | 52.6 | strong-up | +7.3% | -0.5% | +4.8% | — |
| DFEN | $64.33 | 33.1 | weak-down | +2.3% | -27.6% | -4.1% | — |
| Nat Gas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UNG | $11.83 | 44.3 | strong-down | -11.3% | +2.7% | -9.4% | — |
| Crypto (Risk Barometer) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IBIT | $39.42 | 45.7 | strong-down | -29.7% | +7.9% | -20.3% | — |
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
What's Working:
What's NOT Working (Despite War):
- Gold/Silver — dollar squeeze overpowering safe haven demand
- Defense — Q1 premium priced in, now correcting
- Crypto — death crosses, -20% 3M despite "digital gold" narrative
- Nat gas — not benefiting from oil crisis
Key Divergences
Gold vs Oil: Historically these move together during Middle East crises. Gold -17.2% 30D while oil +43.1% 30D is a historic divergence. Driven by: dollar strength, margin calls forcing gold liquidation, physical vs financial market dynamics. When this normalizes, gold snaps back hard — see perspectives/2026-03-26-gold-crash.md.
Defense vs Energy: Defense peaked and rolled over while energy continues higher. The market has decided the war is an energy story, not a military spending story.
Crypto vs Everything: BTC -24.6% below SMA200 with death cross. Neither safe haven (gold down too) nor risk-on (equities weak). Crypto is in its own bear cycle — see perspectives/2026-03-26-crypto-geopolitics-correlation.md.
Action Matrix
| Action | Tickers | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Trail stops tightly | COP, DVN, OXY, EOG | RSI 79-84 overbought; protect gains |
| Watch for mean reversion | GLD, GDX | RSI 30-34; golden crosses intact; dollar turn = catalyst |
| Reduce/avoid | DFEN, defense ETFs | Premium priced in; correcting |
| Monitor | UUP | Dollar direction is THE signal; UUP reversal = gold/EM snapback |
| War-ends playbook | See perspective | If resolution: oil crashes, gold snaps, housing recovers |
Scenario Planning
Escalation → More oil upside, but RSI already 80+ limits magnitude. Gold may finally catch bid as dollar squeeze eases. Stalemate (base case) → Oil stays elevated but overbought correction likely. Gold stabilizes, defense drifts. Resolution → Massive oil unwind (XOP/COP/DVN -20-30%), gold snap-back, housing recovery, defense trim. See perspectives/2026-03-26-war-ends-playbook.md.
Data: 2026-03-26 pre-computed summaries. Cross-ref: perspectives/2026-03-26-iran-war-oil.md
Related
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