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Status: ACTIVE — Higher oil means BIGGER snap-back. Conviction levels unchanged.

The playbook is more urgent, not less. Oil has gone from $117 to $127 since March 26 — every dollar higher is more extreme the correction will be on resolution. The "Rubio new worry" that drove oil higher is exactly the kind of escalation that eventually forces a diplomatic resolution (or a military endgame). Either way, the playbook gets triggered.

Updated base case for scenario: Iran ceasefire/de-escalation → USO drops from $127 toward $80-90 over 4-8 weeks → inflation expectations collapse → rate cut narrative returns → dollar weakens.

Section 1: Current Distortion Table (Updated March 31)