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Status: ACTIVE — Oil at $138 means the snap-back is even more violent. TACO fake-out data now validates the playbook.

The playbook gets more urgent every week. Oil went from $127 to $138 since March 31 — every dollar higher increases the correction magnitude when this resolves. USO is now overbought (RSI 72). The producers are cooling (COP RSI 79→66, OXY RSI 76→65). When the commodity runs while stocks consolidate, it usually means the market is starting to doubt the sustainability of these prices. That's the kind of setup where a ceasefire headline creates a 15-20% oil crash in days.

Updated base case: Iran ceasefire/de-escalation → USO drops from $138 toward $80-90 over 4-8 weeks → inflation expectations collapse → rate cut narrative returns → dollar weakens → everything on this playbook rips.

Section 1: Current Distortion Table (Updated April 3)