The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday — its first hike in three years — and the board's response inverted the setup it walked in with: the bond complex, which last week's dashboard called capitulation-adjacent, bounced across all five names, while the damage moved into rate-sensitive equity instead. Five names crossed from above their 200-day average to below it in a single week — real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, and transportation — the largest one-week structural conversion this dashboard has recorded in this stretch. The oversold band widened again from 18 names to 23, and for the first time in this stretch not a single name on the board is overbought: energy cooled hard off the Saudi supply spike, with oil-and-gas producers posting the board's sharpest RSI drop. Underneath it all, large-cap growth firmed while equal-weight and small caps fell deeper into oversold — the benchmark barely moved, but what is holding it up narrowed. All 56 names carry a settled Friday 2026-09-18 close.

LONG-HORIZON READ: this dashboard applies the desk's binding rule — a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only a name trading BELOW its 200-day with a weak or negative year is called genuinely broken.

The week's defining event was policy. The Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, citing stubborn inflation — its first hike in three years, and the first under new chair Kevin Warsh (Yahoo Finance and CNBC, September 16). The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 5% on the decision (CNBC, September 16). The Bank of England went the other way the following day, leaving rates unchanged even as UK inflation rose to 3.1% (CNBC, September 17).

The bond board's reaction ran opposite to the headline. Every one of the five fixed-income names firmed on RSI into and through the hike — investment-grade corporates rose 10.1 points to 39.9, the long bond 7.7 points to 42.9, high yield 6.2 to 34.5, total bond 6.1 to 34.8, and intermediate Treasuries 4.9 to 31.3 — unwinding the capitulation-adjacent readings of a week ago. That is a positioning unwind, not a repair: all five remain below their 200-day and negative on the year, and the long bond is still 11.87% under its 52-week high. The damage relocated into the equity names that price off the same curve. Utilities fell to RSI 31.3 and deepened to 7.8% below its 200-day with its year now -2.63%; real estate fell to 31.1 and crossed below its 200-day for the first time this stretch; financials posted the board's second-sharpest RSI drop at -11.4 points to 36.9; regional banks fell to 38.0; and housing kept deteriorating, with homebuilders at RSI 32.5 and home construction at 33.5, the latter now 10.9% below its 200-day and -21.03% on the year.

Five names lost their 200-day average this week — real estate (+0.7% to -1.5%), materials (+1.4% to -0.8%), industrials (+0.7% to -1.1%), metals and mining (+0.3% to -4.4%), and transportation (+1.6% to -1.0%). None crossed back the other way. Every one of those five still carries a positive 1-year change, so by the desk's own rule they are names whose long trend is now genuinely under test rather than confirmed breakdowns — but the group that was "barely above the line" a week ago has converted, and the line to watch on each of them is now overhead rather than underfoot.

Against that, large-cap growth and software firmed. The Nasdaq proxy rose 5.1 RSI points to 55.9 and widened its 200-day cushion to 8.9%; technology rose to 58.2, the best sector reading on the board and 16.7% above its 200-day; cybersecurity gained 8.8 points to 57.1 on a +5.79% week; innovation/disruptive gained 9.6 points to 61.3, the board's largest RSI advance; software rose to 52.2 and widened to 11.4% above its 200-day; semis rose to 54.3. Healthcare was the standout sector, up 8.8 RSI points to 49.8 while improving both its year (+18.35% to +22.49%) and its 200-day cushion (+6.2% to +8.0%) — the only sector on the board to improve on both long-horizon measures at once. But the broadening did not reach down the cap scale: small caps fell to RSI 34.4, the equal-weight benchmark to 36.3, and the Dow proxy to 37.6. The S&P 500 proxy closed at $761.69, down 0.34% on the week — essentially unchanged — while the composition beneath it rotated hard. That is narrowing leadership, and it is the single most important thing on this board that the index level does not show.

Energy gave back its spike. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was shut after an attack in mid-September and crude surged (CNBC and Yahoo Finance, September 14-15); by midweek Saudi Arabia was moving to restore the line and offering prompt supply through ship-to-ship transfers (Bloomberg, September 16). Oil-and-gas producers posted the board's sharpest RSI drop, -16.5 points from 70.2 to 53.7; the oil fund fell 8.3 points to 63.6; the energy sector fell 10.5 points to 55.6. The complex remains the board's long-horizon leader — the oil fund is up 105.94% on the year and 38.2% above its 200-day — but the overbought phase is over, and no name on this board now reads above RSI 70.

1. The Fed hiked a quarter point on Wednesday — its first in three years — and the bond complex bounced rather than broke: LQD +10.1 RSI (29.8→39.9), TLT +7.7 (35.2→42.9), HYG +6.2 (28.3→34.5), BND +6.1 (28.7→34.8), IEF +4.9 (26.4→31.3). All five remain below their 200-day and negative on the year.
2. Five names crossed below their 200-day, none crossed above: XLRE (+0.7%→-1.5%), XLB (+1.4%→-0.8%), XLI (+0.7%→-1.1%), XME (+0.3%→-4.4%), IYT (+1.6%→-1.0%).
3. The board has zero overbought names for the first time this stretch: XOP fell from 70.2 to 53.7 (-16.5, the board's sharpest move) and USO from 71.9 to 63.6 (-8.3).
4. The oversold band widened again, 18 names to 23 — and its character changed from bonds to rate-sensitive equity: XLF, KRE, XRT, IYT, XLRE, XLU, XHB, ITB and DIA now anchor it where the bond quintet did a week ago.
5. XLF posted the board's second-sharpest RSI drop: -11.4 (48.3→36.9), 200-day cushion cut from +6.8% to +4.0%, year down to +3.2%.
6. ITA became the board's deepest reading: RSI 28.5→26.1, crossed deeper below its 200-day (-4.7%→-7.1%), year faded from +9.47% to +5.36%.
7. XLV was the board's best structural improvement: RSI +8.8 (41.0→49.8), year +18.35%→+22.49%, 200-day cushion +6.2%→+8.0% — the only sector improving on both long-horizon measures.
8. ARKK and CIBR led the advance: ARKK +9.6 RSI (51.7→61.3) with its 200-day cushion widening from +8.4% to +14.1%; CIBR +8.8 (48.3→57.1) with its year improving to +29.77% and its cushion to +27.2%.
9. XME lost its 200-day and gave up a third of its year: RSI -5.6 to 40.5, year +32.07%→+21.99%, vs its 200-day +0.3%→-4.4%.
10. URA's year flipped negative: +2.06%→-8.90%, and it deepened to 14.1% below its 200-day.
11. The broad benchmark barely moved while its internals rotated: SPY RSI 50.3→49.2 and price $764.29→$761.69, against QQQ +5.1 RSI and IWM -4.3, RSP -4.2, DIA -7.5.
12. Precious metals firmed and narrowed their gap: SLV +6.4 RSI to 54.0 with its 200-day gap closing from -11.4% to -8.9%; GLD +3.1 to 50.6, gap -4.1%→-3.6%.
13. Breadth split rather than collapsed: 34 of 56 names cooled on RSI and 22 firmed, against 53 of 56 cooling a week ago.

RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25-40 is oversold — check the trend and the long-horizon numbers before treating it as a buy signal, because several names fell into this band on a policy week while remaining well above their 200-day. RSI 40-70 is neutral-to-healthy, and above 70 is extended. "vs SMA" is distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check that actually answers whether a trend is intact: a red short-window trend flag paired with price above the 200-day and a positive year is a deep pullback, not a breakdown; the reverse — below the 200-day with a weak or negative year — is real structural damage no matter how the current week looks. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and held.

Read: The benchmark went nowhere and the internals did all the work. The Nasdaq proxy firmed and widened its cushion while small caps and the Dow proxy fell deeper into oversold — all five remain above their 200-day with double-digit years, so this is a rotation inside intact trends, not a broad-market breakdown.

Read: The hike split the sector board cleanly along rate sensitivity. Technology, energy and healthcare hold intact leadership; utilities, consumer discretionary and communication services remain the three confirmed structural failures; and materials, industrials and real estate all lost their 200-day this week, moving from "barely intact" to "under test."

Read: Japan and emerging markets keep the group's leadership despite cooling into the hike. China firmed on RSI for the first time in three cycles yet its year deepened to -16.46% — an RSI bounce inside an unrepaired breakdown, which is exactly the pattern the long-horizon check exists to separate.

Read: The whole complex bounced on the week it got the hike it was priced for — but not one name moved more than half a percent, so this is an RSI unwind off an extreme rather than a price recovery. All five stay below their 200-day and negative on the year; high yield's near-flat week is the notable tell, because credit declining to panic on a hiking Fed is a different signal from credit rallying.

Read: Oil handed back its spike as Saudi supply came back to market but keeps the board's single best long-horizon profile. Gold and silver both firmed and narrowed their gaps to their 200-day for the first time in this stretch — the metals' long round trip is closing rather than widening, which is a change of direction worth a second week of confirmation.

Read: Both products gave back last week's first uptick and finished the hike week lower. The market did not pay up for protection into a first-in-three-years rate rise — a positioning read, not a safety read, and worth holding against the five 200-day crossings elsewhere on this board.

Read: Growth, momentum and semis all firmed while value and the equal-weight benchmark fell further. That spread is the same narrowing story the index level hides: the factor board is paying for large-cap growth and taking it out of everything equally weighted. All seven still pass the long-horizon check.

Read: Housing was the board's most consistent loser through a hiking Fed, each name down roughly 11% over 30 days and each pushing deeper below its 200-day. With the 10-year back at 5% and the policy rate rising, this is the cleanest rate-transmission channel on the dashboard and it is still transmitting the wrong way.

Read: This tier holds both ends of the board. Cybersecurity and innovation posted the week's two best advances with widening cushions; aerospace and defense sank to the board's single lowest RSI at 26.1 while its year thinned to +5.36% and its 200-day gap widened to -7.1% — the name on this dashboard closest to converting from "under test" to confirmed damage. Uranium's year flipped negative this week, moving it out of that middle group and into the damaged column.

The dashboard's story this week is transmission, not direction. A quarter-point hike arrived on Wednesday with the 10-year back at 5%, and the board sorted itself almost perfectly by rate sensitivity: utilities, real estate, financials, regional banks, housing, retail and transportation all fell into or deeper into the oversold band, while technology, cybersecurity, cloud, software, semis and innovation firmed. The bond complex — the thing the hike was actually about — bounced on RSI without meaningfully moving in price, which reads as an unwind of an over-extended short position rather than a repair; every one of those five names is still below its 200-day and negative on the year, and high yield's flat week says credit neither panicked nor celebrated.

Three things deserve more weight than the index level. First, five names lost their 200-day in one week and none regained it, which converts a group the desk has been calling "barely intact" into a group whose long trend is genuinely under test. Second, leadership narrowed measurably: the benchmark closed 0.34% lower on the week while the Nasdaq proxy gained 5.1 RSI points and the equal-weight benchmark lost 4.2 — a market carried by fewer names is a market with less margin for a single disappointment. Third, volatility fell through a first-in-three-years hike, giving back the small hedging bid that appeared a week ago; the board is not paying for protection against the policy path it just got.

The intact column remains large and genuinely intact — 27 of 56 names sit above their 200-day with a positive year, led by oil (+105.94%), semis (+80.77%), copper (+65.68%), biotech (+62.10%), energy (+43.36%) and oil-and-gas producers (+43.40%). Seventeen names are genuinely damaged on both long-horizon measures, and eleven sit in the ambiguous middle — below their 200-day but still positive on the year — with aerospace and defense and metals and mining the two most likely to resolve downward from here.

None on this board. Aerospace and defense at 26.1 is the closest, and it is the deepest reading this dashboard has carried in this stretch.

Twenty-three names, up from 18 a week ago: ITA (26.1), XLRE (31.1), XLU (31.3), IEF (31.3), IYT (31.3), XHB (32.5), ITB (33.5), XRT (34.1), IWM (34.4), XLI (34.4), HYG (34.5), BND (34.8), XLB (35.4), RSP (36.3), XLF (36.9), DIA (37.6), XLY (38.0), KRE (38.0), TAN (38.5), VXX (38.7), XLP (39.3), VIXY (39.4), LQD (39.9). The band's composition flipped from bonds to rate-sensitive equity — and inside it, IWM, DIA, RSP, XLF, KRE, XLB, XLI and IYT all still carry positive years, so most of this band is a policy-week pullback rather than damage.

The remaining 33 names, led by USO (63.6), ARKK (61.3), XLK (58.2), CIBR (57.1), VUG (56.4), QQQ (55.9) and XLE (55.6). No name reads above 70.

• Whether the five names that lost their 200-day this week — real estate, materials, industrials, metals and mining, transportation — reclaim it or convert to confirmed damage. Each one's 200-day is now the level overhead: XLRE needs +1.5%, XLB +0.8%, XLI +1.1%, XME +4.4%, IYT +1.0% from Friday's close.
• Whether aerospace and defense at RSI 26.1 is a washout or the last step before its year (+5.36%) goes negative and it joins the damaged column.
• Whether the bond complex's bounce is a floor or a pause: the test is a second week of RSI gains with price following, since this week's move was almost entirely positioning.
• Whether leadership re-broadens. The concrete tell is the equal-weight benchmark at RSI 36.3 and small caps at 34.4 turning up while the Nasdaq proxy holds — if instead the benchmark keeps grinding sideways on fewer and fewer names, the index level is hiding an increasingly fragile market.
• Whether volatility's failure to bid through a first-in-three-years hike persists, or a second policy surprise finally produces the hedging demand this board has not seen in this stretch.
• Whether gold and silver's newly narrowing gaps to their 200-day mark the end of their long round trip, or reverse for a third time.
• Whether energy's cooldown stops at a higher low. Oil is still 38.2% above its 200-day and up 105.94% on the year; Saudi supply returning to market is the near-term pressure, and the level that matters is whether the oil fund holds above its 20-day at $143.65.

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — market-pulse.
• Fed decision and market reaction: 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html, 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494, 2026-09-16-cnbc-here-is-what-changed-in-the-new-fed-statement-under-warsh-108363808.
• Bank of England hold: 2026-09-17-cnbc-bank-of-england-defies-fed-s-rate-hike-lead-leaving-rates-un-108363610.
• Saudi pipeline and oil supply: 2026-09-14-cnbc-oil-prices-rise-after-saudi-arabia-shuts-down-critical-pipel-108362194, 2026-09-15-yahoofinance-saudi-oil-crisis-deepens-as-aramco-suspends-yanbu-loadings-o-170000784-html, 2026-09-16-bloomberg-oil-holds-drop-as-saudi-arabia-moves-to-restore-vital-pipeli-tlfzdrkjh6v400.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-11-market-pulse.