The bond selloff behind last week's Fed hike escalated rather than eased this week: the 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007, the largest long-bond ETF closed at a record low, and the market began pricing the next Fed hike for as soon as October on hot inflation data and Fed Governor Barr's comments (Bloomberg and CNBC, September 22-23) — and Utilities fell into capitulation, the board's first sub-25 RSI print this stretch. Regional banks (KRE) crossed below their 200-day average for the first time in this stretch and real estate's (XLRE) trailing year flipped negative, moving both from "under test" toward confirmed damage. Underneath that, the benchmark still closed the week higher — technology led again and a CPU-stock rally (Intel +12% on September 21, AMD crossing a $1 trillion market cap the same day) kept large-cap growth firm — while the equal-weight benchmark fell for a third straight week, meaning breadth kept narrowing even as the index-level number improved. All 56 names carry a settled Wednesday 2026-09-23 close.

LONG-HORIZON READ: this dashboard applies the desk's binding rule — a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only a name trading BELOW its 200-day with a weak or negative year is called genuinely broken.

The rate story that produced last week's Fed hike did not settle — it escalated. Hot inflation data (S&P Global's composite measure hit its highest level since October 2022) and comments from Fed Governor Barr moved the market to price the next hike as soon as October (CNBC, September 23). The bond slide "deepened," in Bloomberg's words, with robust economic data and a weak debt auction driving yields "across most maturities to the highest levels in almost two decades" on Wednesday (Bloomberg, September 23) — the same report noting the 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007. The largest long-bond ETF closed at a record low the same day, a move Bloomberg described as a "yearslong bond market selloff [that] shows few signs of relenting." Gold caught the same current: Bloomberg (September 22) attributed a pullback in the metal to a firming oil price and hot business-activity data reinforcing bets on further Fed hikes, which crowded out the safe-haven bid. Stocks briefly felt it too — MarketWatch (September 23) reported the Nasdaq and S&P 500 "retreating from record territory" as yields "suddenly jump[ed]" — though the index still closed the week higher once the whole five-session window is counted.

That transmission mechanism sorted the equity board again, and harder than last week. Utilities fell into capitulation for the first time this stretch: RSI 31.3 → 23.5, its year deepening to -7.17% and its 200-day gap widening to -10.7%. Regional banks crossed below their 200-day average for the first time — from 3.4% above to 0.1% below — even as their year held roughly flat at +9.87%, which moves KRE from the intact column into the ambiguous "under test" group rather than confirmed damage. Real estate's trailing year flipped negative (+1.12% → -0.38%), converting XLRE from "under test" into the confirmed-damage column alongside utilities, consumer discretionary, communication services, China, the five bonds, natural gas, both volatility products, both housing names, China internet, uranium and retail — now 18 names, up from 17 last week. Financials fell hard again, RSI -8.5 to 28.4, its 200-day cushion thinning from +4.0% to +1.5%, the thinnest positive cushion left on the sector board. Energy gave back more of its earlier spike — XLE fell 9.6 RSI points to 46.0 and the oil-and-gas-producer fund XOP fell 10.4 points to 43.3 — though both remain comfortably above their 200-day with double-digit trailing years, a deep pullback rather than a breakdown.

Against that, the growth side of the market actually strengthened, and a specific catalyst sits behind part of it: CNBC (September 21) reported Intel surging 12% as "CPU stocks rally," the same day MarketWatch reported AMD crossing a $1 trillion intraday market cap, the 14th U.S. company to do so — a milestone, not a fundamental print, but real news behind a real move. Technology closed the week as the board's best sector at RSI 64.7 and 19.7% above its 200-day; the semiconductor fund widened to RSI 61.4 and a 22.5% cushion; cybersecurity, cloud and innovation funds (CIBR, SKYY, ARKK, IGV) all extended the advance flagged last week, each still widening its 200-day cushion. The benchmark itself gained 1.82% over the week and its RSI firmed from 49.2 to 53.0 — a genuinely better index-level week than last week's flat close. But the equal-weight benchmark fell a third straight week (RSI 36.3 → 34.6, -0.46% on the week) while the benchmark rose, and small caps stayed pinned at RSI 34.4, identical to last week. A market whose headline number improves while its breadth measure keeps falling is carrying more of its own weight on fewer names, not fewer.

One clean divergence from the rest of the rate story: housing improved. Homebuilders and home construction both climbed out of the oversold band (XHB RSI 32.5 → 38.5, ITB 33.5 → 40.9) with their trailing years improving rather than deepening (XHB -15.86% → -12.78%, ITB -21.03% → -17.04%), even as mortgage-linked yields pushed to two-decade highs elsewhere on the board. That is worth watching rather than folding into the "everything rate-sensitive fell" story, because on this week's numbers it did not. Volatility still showed no hedging bid — VIXY and VXX both cooled again, extending the collapse regime flagged in prior cycles — even into a week that delivered a genuine yield shock.

1. Bonds resumed falling instead of repairing last week's bounce: TLT -4.9 RSI (42.9→38.0), LQD -5.7 (39.9→34.2), HYG -5.0 (34.5→29.5), BND -3.6 (34.8→31.2), IEF -2.1 (31.3→29.2) — all five fell in price again and all five deepened further below their 200-day.
2. A fresh rate escalation arrived mid-week: the 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007, the largest long-bond ETF closed at a record low, and the market began pricing an October hike on hot inflation data and Fed Governor Barr's comments (Bloomberg, CNBC, September 22-23).
3. XLU crossed into capitulation for the first time this stretch: RSI 31.3→23.5 (-7.8), year deepening to -7.17%, 200-day gap widening to -10.7%.
4. KRE crossed below its 200-day for the first time: +3.4%→-0.1%, RSI -10.8 (38.0→27.2), while its year held near-flat at +9.87% — moved from intact to the ambiguous "under test" column.
5. XLRE's year flipped negative: +1.12%→-0.38%, converting it from "under test" into confirmed damage; the damaged column grew from 17 to 18 names.
6. XLF fell hard again: RSI -8.5 (36.9→28.4), 200-day cushion cut from +4.0% to +1.5% — the sector board's thinnest positive cushion.
7. Breadth narrowed further under a green headline week: SPY +1.82% (RSI 49.2→53.0) and QQQ +5.18% (RSI 55.9→63.2) against RSP's third straight cooling week, -0.46% (RSI 36.3→34.6); IWM's RSI was unchanged at 34.4.
8. Energy gave back more of its spike: XLE -9.6 RSI (55.6→46.0), XOP -10.4 (53.7→43.3); both cushions thinned sharply (XLE 15.4%→11.4%, XOP 18.2%→12.8%) but both remain deep in intact territory on the year.
9. Gold's 200-day gap widened again after last week's brief narrowing: RSI -6.2 (50.6→44.4), 30-day return deepening to -7.92% (was -3.06%) — Bloomberg (September 22) attributed the reversal to firming oil and revived Fed-hike bets crowding out the safe-haven trade.
10. UNG extended its bounce: RSI +9.2 (52.2→61.4), the board's largest single-week RSI gain, though its year (-12.06%) and 200-day gap (-5.2%) remain unrepaired.
11. Housing diverged from the rest of the rate-sensitive complex: XHB +6.0 RSI (32.5→38.5) and ITB +7.4 (33.5→40.9), both climbing out of oversold with improving — not deteriorating — trailing years.
12. Breadth of RSI moves flipped from majority-cooling to majority-firming: 31 of 56 names firmed this week against 23 last week, even as the sharpest single-week declines (XOP, KRE, XLF, XLU, USO, GLD, SLV) deepened further than last week's moves.
13. The intact/damaged/ambiguous split held almost steady: 26 intact (was 27), 18 damaged (was 17), 12 ambiguous (unchanged in count; KRE fell out of intact and XLRE fell into damaged). Still zero names above RSI 70 on this dashboard — XLK's 64.7 is the high.

RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25-40 is oversold — check the trend and the long-horizon numbers before treating it as a buy signal, because several names here are oversold on a rate-driven week while remaining well above their 200-day. RSI 40-70 is neutral-to-healthy, and above 70 is extended. "vs SMA" is distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check that actually answers whether a trend is intact: a red short-window trend flag paired with price above the 200-day and a positive year is a deep pullback, not a breakdown; the reverse — below the 200-day with a weak or negative year — is real structural damage no matter how the current week looks. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and held.

Read: The benchmark and the Nasdaq proxy both posted real gains this week, unlike last week's flat close — but the Dow proxy and small caps barely moved and carry the thinnest cushions of the group. All five remain above their 200-day with double-digit trailing years, so this is a strengthening at the top of the cap scale inside intact trends, not a broad-market advance.

Read: The same rate-sensitivity split as last week, but sharper. Technology, energy and healthcare hold intact leadership; consumer discretionary and utilities are the board's deepest confirmed damage, with utilities now in outright capitulation; and real estate joined communication services as newly confirmed damage this week, while financials sit one bad week from following it.

Read: Emerging markets and Japan keep the group's leadership. China firmed slightly on RSI for a second cycle but its year is still -14.31% and it remains 5.7% below its 200-day — an RSI bounce inside an unrepaired breakdown, the same pattern flagged last cycle.

Read: Last week's dashboard called the bond complex's bounce a positioning unwind rather than a repair, and this week confirmed it — every one of the five gave back that bounce, cooling on RSI and falling in price for a second straight week. The backdrop escalated on top of it: the 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007, the largest long-bond ETF closed at a record low, and the market began pricing an October Fed hike on hot inflation data (Bloomberg, CNBC, September 22-23). None of the five is anywhere near its 200-day and all five remain negative on the year — this is not a complex testing a bottom, it is a complex still falling. The equity read-through landed almost entirely on rate-sensitive names (utilities into capitulation, regional banks crossing their 200-day, financials' cushion down to +1.5%) while the cap-weighted benchmark still closed the week up 1.82% against the equal-weight benchmark's third straight losing week (-0.46%) — the same fewer-names-carrying-more-weight story the bond shock keeps producing underneath.

Read: Oil keeps giving back its spike but still carries the board's best long-horizon numbers by a wide margin. Gold and silver both saw their 200-day gaps widen again this week, reversing last cycle's brief narrowing — Bloomberg (September 22) tied gold's pullback to firming oil and reinforced Fed-hike expectations crowding out the safe-haven bid, the same rate story running through the rest of this board.

Read: Both products cooled again this week, even as the bond market delivered its sharpest move of the stretch and stocks briefly retreated from record territory on Wednesday's yield jump. The market still did not pay up for protection — a positioning read worth holding against the deepening damage elsewhere on this board.

Read: Growth, momentum and semis all firmed hard on the week technology and CPU stocks led; value and the equal-weight benchmark fell further. That is the same narrowing story the index level hides, now three weeks running for the equal-weight measure — the benchmark's best week in this stretch was paid for by even fewer names than last week's flat one. All seven still pass the long-horizon check.

Read: Housing was the week's genuine surprise. Both names climbed out of the oversold band and both improved on their trailing year even as mortgage-linked yields pushed to two-decade highs elsewhere on this board — a real divergence from the rest of the rate-sensitive complex worth a second week of confirmation rather than folding into the broader bond story.

Read: Cybersecurity and cloud held last week's advance while energy and financials produced this week's sharpest declines. Regional banks crossing below their 200-day is the tier's headline: RSI fell 10.8 points to 27.2 while the year held near-flat, which is a genuine new crossing rather than a deepening of an existing one — the level to watch now is whether KRE reclaims its 200-day or converts, the same test the desk is running on materials, industrials, transportation and metals and mining after last cycle's five crossings.

This week's story is the same transmission mechanism as last week, running hotter. A quarter-point hike on September 16 gave way to hot inflation data and Fed Governor Barr's comments pointing toward an October hike (CNBC, September 23); the 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007 and the broader bond market slide pushed yields to two-decade highs (Bloomberg, September 23), with the largest long-bond ETF closing at a record low the same day. That did two things at once: it took the bond complex — TLT, LQD, HYG, BND, IEF — through a second straight week of RSI cooling and price declines, unwinding all of last week's bounce, and it sorted the equity board by rate sensitivity again, harder than before. Utilities fell into capitulation for the first time this stretch; regional banks crossed below their 200-day for the first time; real estate's year flipped negative, converting it to confirmed damage; financials' cushion is down to 1.5%, the thinnest positive reading left on the sector board.

Three things matter more than the index level. First, breadth kept narrowing under an improving headline: the benchmark's best week in this stretch (+1.82%) arrived alongside the equal-weight benchmark's third straight losing week (-0.46%), and small caps' RSI did not move at all. A market whose gauge improves while its breadth measure deteriorates for three straight weeks is carrying more of its own weight on fewer names, not fewer risks. Second, a specific, dated catalyst sits behind part of the growth-side strength for the first time in a few cycles: CNBC reported Intel surging 12% in a broad CPU-stock rally on September 21, and AMD crossed a $1 trillion intraday market cap the same day — real news, not an unexplained tape move, and it shows up directly in this dashboard's semiconductor fund (+10.24% on the week) and technology sector (RSI 64.7, the board's best). Third, housing genuinely diverged from the rest of the rate-sensitive complex this week — both homebuilder names climbed out of oversold with improving trailing years even as the rate backdrop worsened everywhere else — which is either an early tell that the sector has priced in the bad news, or a one-week blip; one more cycle will tell which.

The intact column held nearly steady at 26 of 56 names (was 27), still led by oil (+98.31%), semis (+86.95%), copper (+60.81%), biotech (+60.38%) and oil-and-gas producers (+37.08%). The damaged column grew to 18 (was 17) with real estate's addition, and the ambiguous middle held at 12 names but swapped members — regional banks fell in as materials, industrials, transportation and metals and mining remain, still the group most likely to resolve in either direction from here.

One name: XLU at 23.5 — the board's first sub-25 print this stretch, deepening on both long-horizon measures (year -7.17%, 200-day gap -10.7%).

Twenty-two names: XLRE (26.0), KRE (27.2), XLF (28.4), IEF (29.2), HYG (29.5), ITA (29.5), IYT (30.8), BND (31.2), IWM (34.4), LQD (34.2), RSP (34.6), XLI (36.0), DIA (37.8), TLT (38.0), XRT (37.5), TAN (37.8), XLY (38.4), VIXY (38.7), VXX (38.5), XHB (38.5), XLP (39.8), VTV (39.6). TLT and VTV are the two new entrants to this band since last cycle; ITB and XLB climbed out into neutral. Most of this band — IWM, DIA, RSP, XLF, KRE, XLB, XLI, IYT — still carries a positive trailing year, so it reads more as a rate-driven pullback than confirmed damage, with utilities' capitulation print the exception.

The remaining 33 names, led by XLK (64.7), QQQ (63.2), CIBR (63.6), SMH (61.4), UNG (61.4), MTUM (60.8), VUG (60.7), SKYY (61.6) and ARKK (61.4). No name reads above 70 on this dashboard.

• Whether the bond market's escalation continues into a third straight week: the concrete tell is whether TLT, LQD, HYG, BND and IEF keep falling in price as the market prices an October hike, or whether this week's move was the capitulation leg rather than the start of another one.
• Whether Utilities' capitulation print (RSI 23.5) is a washout or the last step before it fully joins the confirmed-damage column on both measures — it already qualifies on the year (-7.17%) and the 200-day gap (-10.7%).
• Whether regional banks (KRE) reclaim their 200-day now that they've crossed below it, or convert into confirmed damage the way materials, industrials, transportation and metals and mining are still testing after last cycle's five crossings.
• Whether financials' cushion (down to +1.5%) holds or crosses zero next — it is now the thinnest positive 200-day gap left on the sector board.
• Whether the equal-weight benchmark's third straight losing week turns, or the benchmark keeps setting better headline numbers on progressively fewer names. The concrete tell is RSP and small-cap RSI turning up while the Nasdaq proxy holds its gains.
• Whether housing's divergence from the rest of the rate-sensitive complex holds a second week or reverses once the current rate data is fully priced in.
• Whether gold and silver's renewed widening against their 200-day (after briefly narrowing last cycle) extends or reverses a third time, now that revived rate-hike bets are back in the price.

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — market-pulse.
• Bond-market escalation and Fed pricing: 2026-09-23-bloomberg-us-bond-market-slide-deepens-pushing-yields-to-two-decade-hi-tltm9rkjh6v700, 2026-09-23-bloomberg-biggest-long-bond-etf-hits-record-low-as-traders-dump-treasu-tj23evkjh6v500, 2026-09-23-marketwatch-bond-yields-surge-above-5-as-wall-street-fears-more-fed-rate--mktw-0005249446, 2026-09-23-cnbc-market-sees-next-fed-hike-in-october-following-barr-comments-108366836.
• Gold pullback: 2026-09-22-bloomberg-gold-falls-as-inflation-fears-revive-fed-interest-rate-hike--tlsbgpkjh6v600.
• Broad stock reaction mid-week: 2026-09-22-bloomberg-stocks-fall-as-inflation-jitters-boost-bond-yields-markets-w-tlsab4vttd0100.
• CPU-stock rally and AMD milestone: 2026-09-21-cnbc-intel-surges-12-as-cpu-stocks-rally-here-s-what-s-driving-th-108365666, 2026-09-21-marketwatch-amd-hits-a-major-milestone-as-ai-stocks-blaze-higher--mktw-0005244006.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-18-market-pulse.