Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
The board carries a Friday 2026-09-11 settled close, and the headline is breadth, not a single move: 53 of 56 names cooled on RSI this cycle, the oversold band (RSI < 40) more than doubled from 8 to 18 names, and the bond complex slid from "oversold" into outright capitulation-adjacent territory — IEF at 26.4, HYG at 28.3, BND at 28.7, LQD at 29.8, all death-crossed and negative on the year. The broad equity benchmarks (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI) all cooled too but stayed above their 200-day with double-digit 1-year gains intact — a deep pullback, not a breakdown, by the desk's own long-horizon check. Energy remained the board's one clear pocket of strength, with USO and XOP both pushing further into overbought. All 56 names in this dashboard carry a fresh 2026-09-11 close (market-pulse) — no staleness caveat.
LONG-HORIZON READ: this dashboard applies the desk's binding rule — a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is called a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only a name trading BELOW its 200-day with a weak or negative year is called genuinely broken.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A broad, board-wide RSI cooldown — 53 of 56 names cooled, the oversold band doubled — but the broad benchmarks and most sector leadership stayed above their 200-day with positive years; real structural damage stayed concentrated in bonds, housing, and a handful of thematic names |
| Key insight | The bond complex is no longer just oversold — IEF (26.4), HYG (28.3), BND (28.7), and LQD (29.8) all sit at or near capitulation, every one death-crossed and negative on both the year and vs its 200-day |
| Leaders | USO (RSI 71.9, +112.19% 1-year, +41.9% above its 200-day) and XOP (RSI 70.2, +48.98% 1-year) — the board's only two names now genuinely overbought |
| Laggards | FXI posted the board's sharpest RSI decline (-17.0, now 40.6) and its 1-year change deepened to -15.34%; KWEB remains the board's deepest breakdown (-39.62% 1-year, -18.3% below its 200-day) |
| Caveat | None — every ticker in this dashboard carries a fresh 2026-09-11 close |
What's Going On
The dominant story this cycle is breadth: 53 of the board's 56 names cooled on RSI, and the oversold band (RSI < 40) more than doubled from 8 names last cycle to 18 this cycle. The five broad benchmarks all cooled in step — SPY (-5.3 RSI to 50.3), QQQ (-2.8 to 50.8), DIA (-7.8 to 45.1, flipping from strong-up to weak-down), IWM (-9.4 to 38.7, now in the oversold band), and VTI (-5.7 to 49.1) — but every one stayed above its 200-day (SPY +7%, QQQ +8.3%) with a double-digit 1-year gain (SPY +16.22%, QQQ +22.39%, IWM +19.97%). By the desk's own framing that is a deep pullback across the broad market, not a breakdown.
The bond complex is the one place this cycle's cooldown crossed from "deep pullback" into genuine capitulation. IEF fell to RSI 26.4 (-12.5 from 38.9), BND to 28.7 (-12.3), HYG to 28.3 (-10.6), LQD to 29.8 (-10.3), and TLT to 35.2 (-10.0) — all five remain death-crossed, strong-down, and negative on both the 1-year change and vs-SMA200 check, continuing rather than resolving the breakdown the desk flagged last cycle. This is now the single most damaged corner of the entire board.
Sector damage widened further too. XLU's 1-year change flipped fully negative this cycle (+2.89%→-0.35%) while its 200-day gap widened (-3.5%→-5%); XLY deepened (-2.27%→-4.84%, -1.8%→-3.4% vs its 200-day); XLC deepened (-1.80%→-3.25%, though its 200-day gap narrowed slightly to -1.3%). A fourth name joined the genuinely-damaged list this cycle: XRT (Retail) flipped from a clean read last cycle (+0.71% year, +2.1% above its 200-day) to damaged now (-3.82% year, -1.4% below its 200-day). The "testing the 200-day from below despite a positive year" group also grew — GLD, SLV, TAN, URA, and ITA all deepened further below their 200-day this cycle, and JETS joined them for the first time (vs SMA200 +1.5%→-1.0%, still +7.03% on the year). Housing (XHB, ITB) and KWEB continued deteriorating rather than stabilizing, and FXI posted the board's sharpest single RSI drop (-17.0 to 40.6) with its 1-year change deepening to -15.34%.
Against all of that, energy stayed the board's clearest bright spot: XLE (RSI 66.1, +46.15% 1-year), XOP (RSI 70.2, +48.98% 1-year), and USO (RSI 71.9, +112.19% 1-year) all extended further, with USO and XOP now the board's only two genuinely overbought names. XLK also held up relatively well (RSI 55.1, essentially flat this cycle) with its 1-year gain still the board's second-best among sectors (+38.47%). Volatility ticked up out of deep collapse for the first time this stretch — VIXY (+8.1 RSI to 39.6) and VXX (+7.8 to 40.2) — the first sign of any hedging bid showing up on this board, though both remain deeply below their 200-day (-32.5% and -31.9%) and deeply negative on the year.
What Changed Since the 2026-09-04 Pulse
- Breadth turned decisively negative: 53 of 56 names cooled on RSI this cycle (only XOP, USO, VIXY, VXX, XLE, XLC, MTUM cooled less than 2 points or firmed).
- The oversold band (RSI < 40) more than doubled: 8 names last cycle → 18 this cycle.
- The bond complex deepened from oversold into capitulation-adjacent territory: IEF -12.5 RSI (38.9→26.4), BND -12.3 (41.0→28.7), HYG -10.6 (38.9→28.3), LQD -10.3 (40.1→29.8), TLT -10.0 (45.2→35.2) — all five remain death-crossed and negative on the year.
- XRT flipped newly into genuinely damaged status: 1-year change +0.71%→-3.82%, crossed from +2.1% above its 200-day to -1.4% below it.
- JETS crossed below its 200-day for the first time this stretch: vs SMA200 +1.5%→-1.0%, still +7.03% on the year — joining the "testing the trend" group.
- XLU's year flipped fully negative: +2.89%→-0.35%, 200-day gap widened to -5%.
- FXI posted the board's sharpest RSI decline: -17.0 (57.6→40.6), 1-year change deepened to -15.34% (from -6.39%).
- XLV flipped from strong-up to weak-down: RSI -14.5 (55.5→41.0), though its year (+18.35%) and 200-day cushion (+6.2%) both stay solidly positive — a deep pullback, not a breakdown.
- XBI cooled sharply: RSI -12.9 (55.1→42.2), still comfortably above its 200-day (+14.7%) with a +63.22% year.
- URA and ITA both deepened further below their 200-day: URA -5.0%→-10.3%, ITA -1.7%→-4.7%.
- USO and XOP extended into overbought: USO RSI 66.2→71.9 (+5.7), XOP 64.5→70.2 (+5.7) — the board's only two overbought names now.
- VIXY and VXX both ticked up out of deep collapse: VIXY +8.1 RSI (31.5→39.6), VXX +7.8 (32.4→40.2) — the first sign of a hedging bid this stretch, though both remain deeply below their 200-day.
How To Read The Board
RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend/death-cross before treating as a buy signal). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = overbought/extended. "vs SMA" = distance from the 20-day average (short-term positioning). "vs SMA200" and "1Y%" are the long-horizon check: a name with a red short-window trend flag but a positive 1Y change and price above its 200-day is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown — the reverse (below the 200-day, flat-or-negative year) is real structural weakness regardless of how the current week looks.
Broad Indices
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.29 | 50.3 | $766.88 | -0.3% | -0.77% | -1.06% | +16.22% | +7% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled off a steady band, still an intact trend |
| QQQ | $714.88 | 50.8 | $715.67 | -0.1% | -0.57% | -1.22% | +22.39% | +8.3% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
| DIA | $525.79 | 45.1 | $531.54 | -1.1% | -1.55% | -2.11% | +13.83% | +5.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Flipped to weak-down, still above its 200-day |
| IWM | $288.89 | 38.7 | $296.60 | -2.6% | -2.41% | -4.57% | +19.97% | +5.5% | weak-down | 🟡 Fell into the oversold band, deep pullback not a breakdown |
| VTI | $376.31 | 49.1 | $378.34 | -0.5% | -0.90% | -1.45% | +15.87% | +6.8% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
Read: All five broad benchmarks cooled this cycle, IWM hardest into the oversold band, but every one stays above its 200-day with a double-digit 1-year gain — a deep pullback across the broad market, not a breakdown.
Sector Rotation (11 SPDR XL* ETFs)
| Sector | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE (Energy) | $65.14 | 66.1 | $63.72 | +2.2% | +1.69% | +6.73% | +46.15% | +17.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Board's best 1-year sector gain, extending further |
| XLK (Technology) | $187.67 | 55.1 | $185.53 | +1.2% | +0.21% | -0.63% | +38.47% | +16.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Held up best of any sector, steady |
| XLC (Comm Svcs) | $112.60 | 54.0 | $111.84 | +0.7% | +0.51% | +2.11% | -3.25% | -1.3% | weak-up | 🔴 Year deepened negative — real damage |
| XLF (Financials) | $57.25 | 48.3 | $57.70 | -0.8% | -1.46% | -1.16% | +5.96% | +6.8% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, still an intact trend |
| XLB (Materials) | $50.95 | 39.1 | $52.50 | -3.0% | -2.84% | -3.10% | +10.02% | +1.4% | weak-down | 🟡 Fell into the oversold band, deep pullback |
| XLP (Staples) | $83.38 | 40.4 | $85.21 | -2.1% | -1.42% | -2.00% | +3.46% | -0.1% | down | 🟡 Right at the edge of below its 200-day |
| XLY (Cons Discret) | $112.96 | 40.9 | $115.99 | -2.6% | -1.70% | -4.18% | -4.84% | -3.4% | strong-down | 🔴 Damage deepened, below its 200-day |
| XLRE (Real Estate) | $43.42 | 37.9 | $44.43 | -2.3% | -1.16% | -2.41% | +2.07% | +0.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Oversold, barely above its 200-day |
| XLI (Industrials) | $172.37 | 36.5 | $177.58 | -2.9% | -1.65% | -7.27% | +12.81% | +0.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Third straight cycle oversold, cushion nearly gone |
| XLU (Utilities) | $42.39 | 38.1 | $43.19 | -1.9% | -1.60% | -3.31% | -0.35% | -5% | strong-down | 🔴 Year flipped fully negative — real damage |
| XLV (Healthcare) | $165.36 | 41.0 | $170.89 | -3.2% | -3.55% | -1.83% | +18.35% | +6.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Flipped from strong-up, year and 200-day both still positive |
Read: XLE and XLK remain the board's cleanest long-horizon leaders. XLU, XLY, and XLC all carry a negative-or-flat year with price below the 200-day — real structural damage, unchanged from last cycle but deeper.
International
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ (Japan) | $98.56 | 61.5 | $96.34 | +2.3% | +0.28% | +0.79% | +25.94% | +10.6% | strong-up | 🟢 Cooled slightly, remains the group's leader |
| EEM (Emg Mkts) | $67.84 | 55.1 | $67.18 | +1.0% | -1.25% | +2.08% | +29.74% | +9.4% | strong-up | 🟢 Cooled, still a strong year |
| VWO (Emg Mkts) | $60.35 | 50.2 | $60.53 | -0.3% | -1.77% | -0.10% | +12.64% | +4.9% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled hardest in the group, intact trend |
| EFA (Dev Int'l) | $106.70 | 47.8 | $107.64 | -0.9% | -1.52% | -1.66% | +14.29% | +4.7% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
| FXI (China) | $34.49 | 40.6 | $35.28 | -2.2% | -3.87% | -2.10% | -15.34% | -5.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Group's sharpest decline, year deepened to -15.34% |
Read: EWJ and EEM keep the group's leadership despite cooling. FXI posted the board's single sharpest RSI drop and remains the group's genuine breakdown, now deeper than last cycle.
Bonds
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEF (7-10yr Tsy) | $91.01 | 26.4 | $92.59 | -1.7% | -1.34% | -2.10% | -6.43% | -4.2% | strong-down | 🔴 Deepest reading on the board, near capitulation |
| HYG (High Yield) | $78.60 | 28.3 | $79.43 | -1.0% | -0.71% | -1.27% | -3.01% | -1.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Continued sliding toward capitulation |
| BND (Total Bond) | $71.22 | 28.7 | $72.11 | -1.2% | -1.01% | -1.47% | -4.61% | -3.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Continued sliding toward capitulation |
| LQD (Inv Grade Corp) | $104.32 | 29.8 | $105.82 | -1.4% | -1.10% | -1.70% | -7.03% | -4.3% | strong-down | 🔴 Continued sliding toward capitulation |
| TLT (20yr Tsy) | $80.87 | 35.2 | $82.20 | -1.6% | -1.63% | -1.51% | -10.48% | -6.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Deepened further below its 200-day |
Read: The entire bond complex slid from oversold into capitulation-adjacent territory this cycle — IEF, HYG, BND, and LQD all sit at or near RSI 25-30, every name death-crossed and negative on both the year and vs its 200-day. This is now the board's most damaged corner.
Commodities
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO (Oil) | $154.90 | 71.9 | $137.11 | +13% | +9.12% | +21.68% | +112.19% | +41.9% | strong-up | 🟠 Board's most extended reading, breaking further out |
| COPX (Copper) | $88.53 | 48.1 | $91.47 | -3.2% | -2.35% | +0.26% | +67.04% | +8.7% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled hard, still a huge year |
| GLD (Gold) | $398.77 | 47.5 | $409.43 | -2.6% | -1.97% | +4.40% | +19.12% | -4.1% | weak-up | 🟡 Deepened further below its 200-day |
| SLV (Silver) | $58.12 | 47.6 | $60.10 | -3.3% | -2.84% | -1.59% | +53.80% | -11.4% | weak-up | 🟡 Gap to its 200-day widening further |
| UNG (Nat Gas) | $10.17 | 46.1 | $10.26 | -0.9% | -3.69% | -0.29% | -18.12% | -12.7% | strong-down | 🔴 Still a broken chart |
Read: USO is now genuinely overbought after another sharp acceleration. GLD and SLV both continue the desk's flagged "volatile round trip" — deepening below their own 200-day rather than settling into a clean trend.
Volatility
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VXX | $18.07 | 40.2 | $18.57 | -2.7% | +1.98% | -7.10% | -46.35% | -31.9% | strong-down | 🟡 First uptick out of collapse this stretch |
| VIXY | $17.30 | 39.6 | $17.85 | -3.1% | +1.76% | -7.83% | -47.14% | -32.5% | strong-down | 🟡 Same story |
Read: Both products ticked up out of deep collapse for the first time this stretch — a modest hedging bid finally showing up alongside the broad market's cooldown, though both remain deeply below their 200-day.
Factors & Thematic
| Ticker | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH (Semis) | $568.53 | 51.3 | $563.45 | +0.9% | +0.27% | -2.79% | +87.06% | +17.9% | weak-down | 🟢 Steady, huge trailing year |
| MTUM (Momentum) | $307.04 | 51.5 | $305.23 | +0.6% | +0.72% | -2.44% | +20.90% | +9.6% | weak-down | 🟢 Firmed slightly, intact trend |
| VUG (Growth) | $88.02 | 51.9 | $87.97 | +0.1% | -0.49% | -0.96% | +12.39% | +6.6% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
| VTV (Value) | $223.97 | 48.3 | $225.64 | -0.7% | -1.10% | -1.03% | +20.38% | +8.0% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
| QUAL (Quality) | $220.20 | 44.4 | $222.72 | -1.1% | -1.07% | -2.33% | +14.94% | +5.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Cooled, intact trend |
| RSP (Equal Wt S&P) | $214.87 | 40.5 | $219.47 | -2.1% | -1.89% | -2.81% | +12.89% | +5.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Cooled hard, right at the oversold edge |
| XBI (Biotech) | $156.20 | 42.2 | $163.09 | -4.2% | -4.65% | -2.00% | +63.22% | +14.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Sharpest cooldown in the group, still a huge year |
Read: SMH and MTUM held up best this cycle. XBI cooled the hardest but stays comfortably above its 200-day — a deep pullback, not a breakdown.
Housing
| ETF | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITB (Home Const.) | $89.54 | 36.4 | $94.91 | -5.7% | -4.65% | -8.79% | -22.75% | -9.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Continues to deteriorate |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | $98.46 | 36.0 | $103.84 | -5.2% | -4.64% | -9.13% | -17.10% | -7.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Continues to deteriorate |
Read: Both housing names deepened further below their 200-day and further negative on the year — still tracking the bond complex's weakness rather than stabilizing.
Industry Pulse (14 sector-specific ETFs)
| Ticker | Category | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | Oil & Gas E&P | $195.72 | 70.2 | $188.77 | +3.7% | +2.63% | +9.60% | +48.98% | +22.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Extended, tracking energy strength |
| ARKK | Innovation/Disruptive | $83.58 | 51.7 | $84.28 | -0.8% | -3.06% | +2.72% | +6.74% | +8.4% | strong-up | 🟢 Cooled, intact trend |
| SKYY | Cloud Computing | $158.47 | 51.4 | $161.18 | -1.7% | -1.91% | -2.52% | +17.10% | +21.7% | strong-up | 🟢 Cooled, intact trend |
| CIBR | Cybersecurity | $94.40 | 48.3 | $95.71 | -1.4% | -0.20% | -5.97% | +24.88% | +21.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Steady, strong year |
| IGV | Software | $101.52 | 48.0 | $104.05 | -2.4% | -2.92% | -1.51% | -9.68% | +8.4% | strong-up | 🔴 Above its 200-day but negative on the year |
| KRE | Regional Banks | $73.90 | 44.1 | $74.75 | -1.1% | -1.82% | -4.50% | +13.33% | +5.4% | weak-down | 🟢 Deep pullback, intact trend |
| URA | Uranium | $43.53 | 44.8 | $45.65 | -4.6% | -5.49% | -3.69% | +2.06% | -10.3% | weak-up | 🟡 Below its 200-day, gap widening further |
| XME | Metals & Mining | $113.63 | 46.1 | $117.94 | -3.7% | -4.21% | -2.71% | +32.07% | +0.3% | up | 🟢 Cooled, still a strong year |
| XRT | Retail | $84.79 | 41.0 | $86.82 | -2.3% | -3.20% | -4.49% | -3.82% | -1.4% | down | 🔴 Newly damaged — year and 200-day both flipped negative |
| TAN | Solar | $47.15 | 39.1 | $48.76 | -3.3% | -1.85% | -9.90% | +12.64% | -14.4% | strong-down | 🟡 Well below its 200-day, gap widening |
| JETS | Airlines | $28.17 | 37.8 | $29.19 | -3.5% | -2.19% | -10.91% | +7.03% | -1.0% | down | 🟡 Newly crossed below its 200-day, still a positive year |
| KWEB | China Internet | $24.60 | 32.4 | $26.03 | -5.5% | -5.57% | -10.68% | -39.62% | -18.3% | strong-down | 🔴 Board's deepest breakdown, deepened further |
| IYT | Transportation | $82.14 | 33.7 | $85.15 | -3.5% | -2.41% | -5.53% | +15.66% | +1.6% | weak-down | 🟡 Oversold, but still passes the long-horizon check |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | $219.01 | 28.5 | $232.89 | -6.0% | -2.93% | -12.96% | +9.47% | -4.7% | down | 🟡 Deepest oversold reading in the tier, deeper below its 200-day |
Read: XOP is the tier's clear leader, extending with the rest of energy. XRT is the tier's new genuine breakdown this cycle; KWEB remains its deepest one. TAN, URA, ITA, and now JETS all sit below or barely above their 200-day despite a still-positive year — the ambiguous "testing the trend" middle that grew this cycle.
Cross-Group Analysis
This cycle's dominant story is breadth, not a single dramatic reversal: 53 of 56 names cooled on RSI and the oversold band doubled from 8 to 18. The bond complex crossed the clearest line — IEF, HYG, BND, and LQD all fell from "oversold" into capitulation-adjacent territory (RSI 26-30), continuing rather than resolving the breakdown the desk flagged last cycle, and that weakness kept tracking through to housing (XHB, ITB), which deepened further. On the equity side, the genuinely-damaged sector list held at three names (XLU, XLY, XLC) but each deepened, and a new name — XRT — joined the broader damaged list as the "testing the 200-day from below despite a positive year" group (GLD, SLV, TAN, URA, ITA, and now JETS) kept growing. Against that, the broad equity benchmarks and most sector leadership stayed intact by the long-horizon check: SPY, QQQ, VTI, XLE, and XLK all cooled on RSI but held above their 200-day with solid-to-huge 1-year gains, and energy (XLE, XOP, USO) was the board's one pocket that got stronger rather than weaker. Volatility's first uptick out of deep collapse this stretch (VIXY, VXX both +7-8 RSI) is worth watching alongside the bond move — it may be the first sign the equity market is starting to price the bond complex's deterioration as a real risk-off signal rather than ignoring it.
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None on this board — IEF's 26.4 is the closest any name has come this stretch.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
IEF (26.4), HYG (28.3), ITA (28.5), BND (28.7), LQD (29.8), KWEB (32.4), IYT (33.7), TLT (35.2), XHB (36.0), ITB (36.4), XLI (36.5), JETS (37.8), XLRE (37.9), XLU (38.1), IWM (38.7), XLB (39.1), TAN (39.1), VIXY (39.6) — 18 names (rounding VIXY in), more than double last cycle's 8. The bond quintet (IEF, HYG, BND, LQD, TLT) anchors the deepest end; ITA, IYT, and JETS still pass the long-horizon check (positive year) even from inside this band.
Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)
Entry Zones
| Ticker | Zone | Thesis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY / QQQ / VTI | Hold | Cooled but intact secular uptrends | 🔒 Hold |
| DIA / IWM | Watch | Flipped to weak-down, still a clean long-horizon check | 🔍 Watch |
| XLE / XOP / USO | Watch for exhaustion | Board's clearest leadership, now genuinely overbought | 🔍 Watch |
| XLK / XLF | Hold | Steady, intact trends | 🔒 Hold |
| XLI / XLB / XLRE | Watch | Fell into the oversold band, deep pullbacks | 🔍 Watch |
| XLU / XLY / XLC | Avoid | Confirmed structural damage, deepened this cycle | ⚠️ Avoid |
| XLP | Watch | Right at the edge of its 200-day | 🔍 Watch |
| XLV | Watch | Flipped to weak-down but year and 200-day both intact | 🔍 Watch |
| EWJ / EEM / VWO / EFA | Hold | Cooled but broad international strength intact | 🔒 Hold |
| FXI | Avoid | Board's sharpest RSI decline, deepening breakdown | ⚠️ Avoid |
| IEF / HYG / BND / LQD / TLT | Avoid | Entire complex slid into capitulation-adjacent territory | ⚠️ Avoid |
| GLD / SLV | Watch | Continuing round trip, deepening below the 200-day | 🔍 Watch |
| UNG | Avoid | Still a broken chart | ⚠️ Avoid |
| VIXY / VXX | Watch | First uptick out of collapse this stretch | 🔍 Watch |
| SMH / MTUM / VUG / VTV / QUAL / RSP | Hold | Intact trends across the factor complex | 🔒 Hold |
| XBI | Watch | Sharpest cooldown, still a huge year | 🔍 Watch |
| XHB / ITB | Avoid | Deteriorating further | ⚠️ Avoid |
| XOP / ARKK / SKYY / CIBR / XME | Hold | Pass the long-horizon check cleanly | 🔒 Hold |
| KRE | Watch | Deep pullback, intact trend | 🔍 Watch |
| IGV | Watch | Above its 200-day, negative on the year | 🔍 Watch |
| XRT | Avoid | Newly flipped to genuine damage | ⚠️ Avoid |
| TAN / URA / ITA / JETS | Watch | Below or barely above the 200-day despite a positive year | 🔍 Watch |
| KWEB | Avoid | Board's deepest breakdown | ⚠️ Avoid |
| IYT | Watch | Oversold-adjacent but passes the long-horizon check | 🔍 Watch |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY, QQQ, VTI | 🟡 | 🔒 Hold | Cooled, intact secular trends |
| DIA, IWM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Flipped weak-down, clean long-horizon check |
| XLE, XOP, USO | 🟠 | 🔍 Watch | Board's clearest leadership, extended |
| XLK, XLF | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Steady, intact trends |
| XLI, XLB, XLRE | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Newly oversold, deep pullbacks |
| XLU, XLY, XLC | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Confirmed structural damage |
| XLP, XLV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Cooling, mostly intact numbers |
| EWJ, EEM, VWO, EFA | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Broad international strength |
| FXI | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Sharpest decline, deepening breakdown |
| IEF, HYG, BND, LQD, TLT | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Capitulation-adjacent, entire complex |
| GLD, SLV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Round trip deepening |
| UNG | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Still broken |
| VIXY, VXX | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | First uptick out of collapse |
| SMH, MTUM, VUG, VTV, QUAL, RSP, XBI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Intact factor complex |
| XHB, ITB | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Deteriorating further |
| XOP, ARKK, SKYY, CIBR, XME | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Clean long-horizon check |
| KRE, IYT | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Deep pullback, intact trend |
| IGV | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Negative year, positive 200-day |
| XRT | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Newly damaged |
| TAN, URA, ITA, JETS | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Testing the 200-day from below |
| KWEB | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Deepest breakdown on the board |
What To Watch Next
- Whether the bond complex's slide into capitulation-adjacent territory (IEF 26.4, HYG 28.3, BND 28.7, LQD 29.8) marks a floor or the credit-stress episode the desk has been watching since HYG's reversal two cycles ago.
- Whether the broad benchmarks' cooldown (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI all lower on RSI) stays a deep pullback inside intact trends or starts eroding the 1-year/200-day numbers that currently call it healthy.
- Whether XRT's flip to genuine damage is a one-off or the start of a fifth structurally damaged sector alongside XLU/XLY/XLC.
- Whether USO and XOP's push into overbought (RSI 71.9 and 70.2) extends or exhausts, given how far the rest of the board just cooled.
- Whether volatility's first uptick out of collapse (VIXY, VXX both +7-8 RSI) is the start of a real hedging bid or another false start.
- Whether the growing "testing the 200-day despite a positive year" group (GLD, SLV, TAN, URA, ITA, JETS) resolves back up or starts confirming as real breakdowns like KWEB and now XRT.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — market-pulse.
- Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-04-market-pulse.
Related
6 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.