Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
Market Pulse — Macro Dashboard
The index tape held up on Friday 2026-10-02 while everything that prices off interest rates stayed on its back: the broad benchmark closed near its high and technology plus semiconductors extended, yet all five bond and credit funds on this board are in capitulation territory, financials and real estate are the weakest sectors, and gold and silver gave back more ground. The split is the story. Cap-weighted strength is narrow, led by technology (XLK RSI 68.8) and semiconductors (SMH RSI 68.6), while the equal-weight index, small caps, the Dow proxy and most defensive sectors sit below their 20-day averages. Corpus context ends October 1: CNBC reported the 10-year Treasury yield sliding after touching its highest level in 24 years, and Bloomberg reported Fed officials weighing the sharp rise in yields. All 56 names carry a settled 2026-10-02 close.
LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits above its 200-day average with a positive one-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only price below the 200-day paired with a weak or negative year is real structural damage. The 1Y and vs SMA200 columns carry that check.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated. Growth and semis trend up above their 200-days; the bond complex, real estate, financials and housing are oversold with several below their 200-days |
| Key insight | Every bond and credit fund (TLT, IEF, BND, LQD, HYG) is below RSI 25 together, and the high-yield fund is the lowest on the board at RSI 17.7. Oversold is not the same as turned: none of them rose on the day |
| Leaders | Technology (XLK, RSI 68.8, 21.1% above its 200-day), semis (SMH, 30D 14.55%), cybersecurity (CIBR, 30D 11.93%), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ, RSI 65.4) |
| Laggards | Real estate (XLRE, RSI 21.7) is the lowest sector print; financials (XLF, RSI 25.9) sit right at their 200-day; China tech (KWEB) is down -44.43% on the year and -18.2% vs its 200-day |
| Caveat | None on freshness. No capture in the corpus is dated October 2, so the macro context here runs through October 1 and is not a cause for Friday's moves |
What's Going On
The cleanest read is a two-speed tape. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) finished the day up 0.74% and sits 1.25% under its 52-week high, with a 1-year gain of 15.01% and 6.8% above its 200-day. The Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is the stronger of the two on the month (30D 5.69%). Underneath, the equal-weight fund (RSP, RSI 37.1), small caps (IWM, RSI 39.6) and the Dow proxy (DIA, RSI 39.1) are all red on the 30-day and below their 20-day averages — breadth is thin even though no index is in trouble on the long-horizon measures.
Rates are the common thread behind the weak half. CNBC (October 1) headlined the 10-year yield sliding after hitting its highest level in 24 years, MarketWatch (October 1) described yields retreating as buyers stepped back in, and Bloomberg (October 1) carried a call that the 10-year is near its peak. The bond ETFs did not confirm a bounce by Friday's close: TLT (-0.3% on the day), IEF (-0.28%) and BND (-0.21%) all slipped again, and TLT is down 13.48% on the year. MarketWatch (October 1) also ran a piece on financial stocks falling below a key chart level; XLF is the board's second-lowest sector at RSI 25.9, one-year gain 0.26%, and -0.4% against its 200-day — the long trend of financials is genuinely under test right here.
Commodities split. Oil is the strongest long-horizon trend on the board (USO 106% over a year, 28% above its 200-day) after CNBC (October 1) reported Brent jumping more than 4% on a report of a third U.S. carrier group heading to the Middle East; USO nonetheless fell 1.77% on Friday as oil prices slipped after the G7 said it would release 100 million barrels of reserves over four months (CNBC, October 2, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/oil-wti-brent-diesel-stock-release-europe.html). Gold and silver kept sliding even though Bloomberg (October 1) noted gold gaining as yields retreated: GLD is -8.7% against its 200-day and SLV -17%, SLV 7D -5.85%. Uranium (URA) and solar (TAN) are the industry groups furthest below their 200-days, alongside silver.
Housing and China remain the clear drags. Homebuilders (XHB, ITB) are both below their 200-days with negative years (-13.38% and -19.97%). Volatility is quiet: VIXY fell 2.11% on the day and is down 48.51% over the year, so there is no hedging bid despite the bond weakness.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
The prior market-pulse edition was dated 2026-09-25. Edition-to-edition RSI deltas are not recomputed here (no prior snapshot is carried in the data this scan reads); the table below compares only what the 2026-10-02 summaries state, using their 7-day window that starts at the 2026-09-25 close.
- Seven-day winners: technology (XLK 1.8%), semis (SMH 3.96%), cybersecurity (CIBR 3.71%), software (IGV 2.28%), cloud (SKYY 2.1%).
- Seven-day losers: silver (SLV -5.85%), natural gas (UNG -5.93%), gold (GLD -3.37%), homebuilders (ITB -3.12%), China tech (KWEB -2.93%).
- Capitulation band (RSI under 25) now holds 6 names: XLRE, TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, BND.
- Extended band (RSI 70+): none — nothing is extended.
- Above vs below the 200-day: 27 of 56 names sit above their 200-day; 29 are below.
How To Read The Board
RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25-40 is oversold, and needs the long-horizon columns before it means anything: several names here are oversold while still above their 200-day. RSI 40-70 is neutral-to-healthy; 70 and above is extended. "vs SMA" is distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" answer whether the trend is intact. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and held. Percentages in the tables are 7-day, 30-day and one-year changes ending at the 2026-10-02 close.
Price Tables by Group
Broad Indices
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.64 | 54.5 | $764.83 | 0.6% | -0.22% | 0.59% | 15.01% | 6.8% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| QQQ | $749.58 | 65.4 | $727.78 | 3% | 0.68% | 5.69% | 23.75% | 12.1% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| DIA | $511.1 | 39.1 | $518.27 | -1.4% | -1.23% | -3.68% | 9.89% | 1.7% | 🟡 Oversold, above 200-day, positive year |
| IWM | $281.52 | 39.6 | $285.01 | -1.2% | -0.16% | -4.25% | 15.37% | 1.9% | 🟡 Oversold, above 200-day, positive year |
| VTI | $377.99 | 52.6 | $376.45 | 0.4% | -0.47% | 0.29% | 14.62% | 6.4% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
Sector Rotation (11 SPDR sector funds)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $199.81 | 68.8 | $191.27 | 4.5% | 1.8% | 8.83% | 39.65% | 21.1% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| XLE | $62.82 | 50.4 | $63.47 | -1% | 1.26% | -3.5% | 42.06% | 11.1% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| XLV | $166.18 | 41.3 | $168.38 | -1.3% | -2.65% | -3.91% | 16.06% | 6% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| XLI | $169.95 | 43.8 | $170.19 | -0.1% | -0.28% | -1.64% | 10.21% | -1.4% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year still positive |
| XLF | $53.49 | 25.9 | $55.56 | -3.7% | -2.46% | -7.23% | 0.26% | -0.4% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year still positive |
| XLU | $39.83 | 34.2 | $40.97 | -2.8% | 0.81% | -6.66% | -9.37% | -10.3% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
| XLP | $80.53 | 33.5 | $82.62 | -2.5% | -1.86% | -5.85% | 3.32% | -3.8% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year still positive |
| XLY | $110.04 | 40.9 | $111.23 | -1.1% | -0.47% | -4.2% | -8.07% | -5.4% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
| XLB | $48.86 | 34.4 | $50.22 | -2.7% | -1.89% | -7.72% | 8.92% | -3.5% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year still positive |
| XLRE | $40.81 | 21.7 | $42.37 | -3.7% | -1.8% | -6.68% | -2.62% | -5.5% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
| XLC | $110.32 | 44.5 | $112.27 | -1.7% | -2.34% | -1.87% | -5.26% | -3.1% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
International
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | $103.96 | 42.2 | $105.5 | -1.5% | -1.52% | -2.9% | 10.26% | 1.3% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| EEM | $67.67 | 52.9 | $67.45 | 0.3% | -0.46% | 0.77% | 25.15% | 7.4% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| VWO | $59.56 | 46.1 | $60.07 | -0.8% | -1% | -1.99% | 8.94% | 2.8% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| FXI | $33.19 | 34.1 | $34.38 | -3.5% | -2.27% | -6.61% | -20.5% | -8.4% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
| EWJ | $98.92 | 58 | $97.46 | 1.5% | 1.01% | 3% | 23.42% | 9.4% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| KWEB | $23.86 | 33.2 | $24.72 | -3.5% | -2.93% | -7.16% | -44.43% | -18.2% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
Bonds and Credit
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | $77.48 | 23.5 | $80.3 | -3.5% | -2.32% | -5.45% | -13.48% | -9.3% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
| IEF | $89.05 | 24.6 | $90.59 | -1.7% | -1.06% | -3.4% | -7.81% | -5.7% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
| BND | $69.94 | 24.5 | $70.98 | -1.5% | -0.98% | -2.63% | -5.99% | -4.5% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
| LQD | $101.83 | 22.7 | $103.96 | -2% | -1.34% | -3.34% | -8.83% | -6.1% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
| HYG | $76.91 | 17.7 | $78.21 | -1.7% | -1.22% | -2.78% | -4.97% | -3.7% | 🟢 Capitulation, below 200-day, year negative |
Commodities and Hard Assets
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $380.14 | 38.8 | $393.21 | -3.3% | -3.37% | -5.62% | 7.15% | -8.7% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year still positive |
| SLV | $54.74 | 40.2 | $57.74 | -5.2% | -5.85% | -7.33% | 28.71% | -17% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year still positive |
| USO | $147.37 | 52.1 | $150.7 | -2.2% | -0.65% | 4.41% | 106% | 28% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| COPX | $85.91 | 47.1 | $87.4 | -1.7% | -0.95% | -4.44% | 41.35% | 3.6% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| UNG | $10.47 | 49.6 | $10.51 | -0.4% | -5.93% | -2.6% | -22.16% | -7.8% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
| XOP | $184.93 | 49.8 | $188.04 | -1.7% | 1.89% | -4.26% | 40.24% | 13% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| XME | $105.74 | 40.5 | $110.21 | -4.1% | -2.39% | -11.49% | 9.38% | -7.2% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year still positive |
| URA | $39.79 | 37.7 | $42.42 | -6.2% | -2.74% | -10.22% | -20.74% | -17.4% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
Volatility
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIXY | $16.72 | 41 | $17.1 | -2.2% | 0.66% | -3.24% | -48.51% | -32.1% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
| VXX | $17.4 | 40.3 | $17.81 | -2.3% | 0.58% | -3.44% | -47.97% | -31.8% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
Factors and Style
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VUG | $91.17 | 63.1 | $89.19 | 2.2% | 0.25% | 4.08% | 13.18% | 9.6% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| VTV | $217.23 | 35.1 | $221.09 | -1.7% | -1.62% | -3.63% | 16.46% | 3.6% | 🟡 Oversold, above 200-day, positive year |
| MTUM | $322.88 | 65.3 | $311.42 | 3.7% | 1.38% | 8.7% | 26.22% | 13.3% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| QUAL | $224.48 | 58.9 | $221.32 | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.39% | 14.32% | 6.8% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| RSP | $209.73 | 37.1 | $212.47 | -1.3% | -0.65% | -4.06% | 10.05% | 1.9% | 🟡 Oversold, above 200-day, positive year |
| ARKK | $89.83 | 58.4 | $87.54 | 2.6% | -1.04% | 7.72% | 0.68% | 15.5% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
Housing and Rate-Sensitive Industries
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XHB | $96.7 | 40.3 | $97.86 | -1.2% | -1.65% | -4.42% | -13.38% | -8.9% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
| ITB | $86.64 | 37.2 | $89.01 | -2.7% | -3.12% | -6.66% | -19.97% | -11% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
| KRE | $70.78 | 39.9 | $72.19 | -1.9% | -1.08% | -4.66% | 12.67% | 0.3% | 🟡 Oversold, above 200-day, positive year |
| XRT | $82.63 | 41.3 | $83.38 | -0.9% | 0.19% | -4.34% | -4.78% | -3.6% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
| IYT | $80.2 | 42.5 | $80.65 | -0.6% | 1.07% | -3.74% | 11.82% | -1.3% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year still positive |
| JETS | $28.14 | 43 | $28.33 | -0.7% | -2.9% | -0.67% | 13.65% | -1.4% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year still positive |
Thematic: Tech, Software, Security, Semis, Biotech, Defense, Clean Energy
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $630.6 | 68.6 | $584.15 | 8% | 3.96% | 14.55% | 86.44% | 26.2% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| IGV | $108.43 | 59.1 | $105.4 | 2.9% | 2.28% | 4.84% | -6.3% | 15.8% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, year negative |
| CIBR | $104.7 | 63 | $100.18 | 4.5% | 3.71% | 11.93% | 35.82% | 31% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| SKYY | $168.14 | 60.9 | $163.34 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 5.54% | 23.81% | 26.6% | 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year |
| XBI | $154.43 | 43.5 | $157.27 | -1.8% | -0.39% | -6.62% | 50.53% | 11.2% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, above 200-day, positive year |
| ITA | $207.79 | 26.4 | $214.59 | -3.2% | -2.82% | -6.97% | -0.76% | -9.8% | 🟡 Oversold, below 200-day, year negative |
| TAN | $44.05 | 40.9 | $45.52 | -3.2% | -0.02% | -6.81% | -4.61% | -19.7% | 🟡 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative |
Read across groups. Growth, semis and security (QQQ, XLK, SMH, MTUM, VUG, CIBR) are the RSI leaders, each more than 9% above its 200-day. Value (VTV, RSI 35.1), equal-weight (RSP) and small caps are oversold-to-neutral but all still above their 200-days with positive years, i.e. pullbacks in intact trends. Bonds and credit are the opposite case: RSI under 25 with every fund below its 200-day and negative one-year changes — a long trend genuinely broken until price reclaims the 200-day. International splits: Japan (EWJ, RSI 58) and emerging markets (EEM, 25.15% on the year) are intact; China (FXI, KWEB) is not.
Tier Analysis
| Tier | Names | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Capitulation (RSI under 25) | XLRE, TLT, IEF, HYG, LQD, BND | All rate-sensitive: bonds, credit, real estate. Oversold readings in a market that has not yet shown a turn |
| Oversold (RSI 25-40) | DIA, IWM, XLF, XLU, XLP, XLB, FXI, GLD, VTV, RSP, ITB, KWEB, ITA, URA, KRE | Mix of pullbacks in intact trends (value, equal-weight, healthcare, biotech) and trends below the 200-day (gold, silver, homebuilders, utilities, staples, China) |
| Neutral and healthy (RSI 40+) | SPY, QQQ, VTI, XLK, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLY, XLC, EFA, EEM, VWO, EWJ, SLV, USO, COPX, UNG, VIXY, VXX, VUG, MTUM, QUAL, SMH, XBI, XHB, IGV, CIBR, SKYY, ARKK, JETS, XOP, XME, TAN, XRT, IYT | Tech, semis, security, momentum, Japan, emerging markets, oil and energy lead |
Entry Zones
Levels are the long-horizon lines that decide whether a pullback is a flag or a break. They are reference points, not recommendations.
| Stock | Level to watch | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| XLF | 200-day $53.71 | Sits at its 200-day with a flat year; a hold keeps the trend alive, a close below confirms damage |
| IWM | 200-day $276.32 | Small caps oversold but still above; 200-day is the line |
| RSP | 200-day $205.74 | Equal-weight breadth gauge, above its 200-day but below its 20-day |
| TLT | 20-day $80.3 | Capitulation RSI; first test is reclaiming the short average |
| GLD | 200-day $416.16 | Below its 200-day; trend under test |
| QQQ | 20-day $727.78 | Leader; pullbacks toward the 20-day are the flag-style entry in an intact trend |
Action Matrix
| Action | Names | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | QQQ, SPY, XLK, SMH, EWJ, EEM | Above 200-days with positive years; leadership intact |
| 🔍 WATCH | XLF, KRE, IWM, RSP, XLE, USO | Financials at the 200-day; small caps and oil depend on the rate and Middle East headlines |
| ⏳ WAIT | TLT, IEF, LQD, HYG, BND, XLRE | Capitulation RSI but no turn yet; need a reclaim of the 20-day before it is more than a screen reading |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | GLD, SLV, XHB, ITB, FXI, KWEB, URA | Below 200-days with weak or negative trends |
What To Watch Next
- Does XLF hold its 200-day, or does the MarketWatch-flagged chart break complete?
- Do the bond funds reclaim their 20-day averages after the yield retreat reported October 1, or is the capitulation reading just continuing?
- Can the equal-weight fund and small caps stay above their 200-days while mega-cap tech leads?
- Does oil's drop on Friday persist after the Middle East carrier report, and does gold stop sliding below its 200-day?
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary, as of the 2026-10-02 close (market-pulse).
- Summary data: market-pulse summary, latest bar 2026-10-02 (56 names, all settled).
- CNBC, October 1, 2026: 10-year Treasury yield slides after hitting highest levels in 24 years — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/us-treasury-bond-yield.html
- CNBC, October 1, 2026: Brent oil jumps more than 4% as U.S. reportedly sends third aircraft carrier to Middle East — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/oil-prices-today-wti-brent.html
- Bloomberg, October 1, 2026: Fed leaders weigh sharp rise in bond yields; Gold gains as yields retreat — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/gold-steady-as-softer-inflation-data-tempers-fed-rate-hike-bets
- MarketWatch, October 1, 2026: Bond yields suddenly retreat; Financial stocks are falling below a key chart level — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-yields-suddenly-retreat-from-recent-highs-as-buyers-step-back-into-the-treasury-market-e3840e3d
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