raw scansnapshot — prices as of scan date, not live85 rows · screens, not recommendationsevent statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-10-02-market-pulse.md
The index held through a rotation in the week to Friday, October 9: semiconductors (SMH) fell 4.32% after OpenAI's revenue report hit AI hardware on October 8 (CNBC), while cybersecurity, cloud, utilities, staples and energy each gained at least 3.6% and the S&P 500 fund closed 0.39% under its 52-week high. All five bond and credit funds left last week's capitulation band, but all five are still under their 200-day averages and down on the year. Financials (XLF) moved back above their 200-day. Regional banks (KRE) slipped below theirs ahead of the bank earnings scheduled for October 13. All 56 names carry a settled 2026-10-09 close.
LONG-HORIZON READ: if a name's short-term trend reads "down" but it trades above its 200-day average and is up on the year, it is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown. Real structural damage takes both: a price under the 200-day and a weak or negative year. The 1Y and vs SMA200 columns carry that check.
Quick Snapshot
Signal
Reading
Overall
🟡 The index is intact and leadership is rotating out of chips. The S&P 500 fund sits -0.39% from its high; 27 of 56 names trade above their 200-day, the same count as October 2
Key insight
The capitulation band (RSI under 25) is empty; on October 2 it held six names. The bond and credit funds bounced into the oversold band, with high yield the lowest at RSI 31.4, but none has reclaimed its 200-day
Leaders (7D)
Cybersecurity CIBR 5.06%, natural gas UNG 5.16%, China tech KWEB 4.48%, cloud SKYY 4.01%, utilities XLU 3.97%
Every name has a settled close. No news capture is dated October 9, so Friday's single-day moves (copper miners 4.29%, China tech 3.79%, cybersecurity 3.58%) have no cause on file. The causes cited below are for October 5–8
What's Going On
The index held while its leaders changed. The S&P 500 fund (SPY) rose 1.16% on the week to $778.57, 0.39% under its 52-week high. It closed at its first record since August on October 6 (Bloomberg) and finished the week just under $779.37, the level the October 5–8 market briefs said it needs to close above twice. The Nasdaq-100 fund (QQQ) gained only 0.23% and the technology fund (XLK) slipped 0.52%, because semiconductors gave ground. SMH fell 4.32% on seven days, 2.84% of it on October 8. That day OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion, below the figure widely cited, and Bloomberg wrote that the worry "bled through to other artificial intelligence bets and chipmakers" (CNBC; Bloomberg, October 8). SMH still sits 19.2% above its 200-day and is up 74.77% on the year: a pullback in an intact trend, not a break.
Software, security, energy and the defensive sectors took the money. Cybersecurity (CIBR) rose 5.06% on the week and cloud (SKYY) 4.01%. Both sit at RSI 69.2 and 69.3, within 0.12% and 0.03% of their 52-week highs. Software (IGV) added 3.91% and is 20.2% above its 200-day. Its year is still −2.59%, so its trend is repairing, not established. Friday alone added 3.58% to CIBR and 2.81% to IGV. The news for both funds was last pulled in June, no news capture is dated October 9 and the stock-events calendar has nothing on them for the date, so the cause of Friday's move is not on file. Utilities (XLU) gained 3.97% in the week Constellation Energy rose 12.25% on a Google nuclear-power agreement (MarketWatch, October 6), but the fund is still 6.6% under its 200-day and down 8.57% on the year. Staples (XLP) rose 3.6% and healthcare (XLV) 2.79%. Energy (XLE) rose 3.6% as oil climbed on stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks and a hurricane threat to US Gulf output (CNBC, October 8). The oil fund (USO) moved only 0.56% on the week, but at 26.5% above its 200-day and up 104.39% on the year it is still the strongest long trend on the board.
Rates eased but did not turn. All five bond and credit funds rose a little on the week (TLT 0.65%, IEF 0.39%, LQD 0.57%, HYG 0.42%, BND 0.4%). That lifted each out of capitulation, but every one still sits below its 200-day and is down on the year; TLT is 8.4% under its 200-day and down 12.56% on the year. The news ran both ways. The Fed's September minutes showed officials expecting another hike, with no timing given (CNBC, October 7). St. Louis Fed President Musalem said rates may need to rise again (Bloomberg, October 8). The 10-year yield backed off its 24-year high after a solid auction, and some options traders began calling a bottom in the bond rout (CNBC, October 7 and 8). The October 8 market brief cites FRED's 10-year at 5.28% on October 7. Financials (XLF) gained 2.32% and moved back above their 200-day, by 1.9%. Regional banks (KRE) fell 2.5% and slipped 2.3% under theirs.
Breadth is middling and the hard assets are mixed. The equal-weight fund (RSP) gained 1.58% and is 3.3% above its 200-day. Small caps (IWM) are just 0.7% above theirs at RSI 38.5, so that line is the one to watch. China tech (KWEB, 4.48%) and China large caps (FXI, 3.16%) bounced, but both remain below their 200-days and down on the year. The communications fund (XLC) fell 1.51% on Friday, the day the three big US wireless carriers fell more than 10% after SpaceX agreed to buy low-band spectrum (CNBC, October 8). Copper miners (COPX) jumped 4.29% on Friday after a −9.99% month. The fund's news was last pulled in July and no October 9 capture exists, so the cause is not on file. Gold (GLD) is 7.5% under its 200-day and 24.55% off its high, and silver (SLV) is 16.7% under its 200-day. Volatility stays compressed: VIXY fell 2.51% on the week and is 33% below its 200-day.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Prior edition: 2026-10-02. That edition's numbers are not reprinted. The points below compare its stated bands and lists with the 2026-10-09 summary, whose 7-day window starts at the October 2 close.
The capitulation band emptied. On October 2 it held six names: real estate (XLRE) and all five bond and credit funds. On October 9 it holds none. XLRE moved to neutral, and the bond funds sit in the oversold band.
Leadership flipped inside technology. Technology and semis led on October 2. This week SMH has the worst 7-day change on the board and XLK is slightly negative, while cybersecurity, cloud and software lead with the defensive sectors.
Nothing is extended. No name is at RSI 70 or above, the same as last week; CIBR and SKYY are the closest.
The 200-day count is 27 above and 29 below, the same as October 2, but two names traded places. Financials (XLF) moved back above their 200-day; regional banks (KRE), above theirs last week, are now below.
The regime label changed. On October 2 the board was split along the rate line: bonds, real estate and financials were oversold while growth extended. On October 9 rates are calmer and the split is inside equities, with chips selling and software, security, energy and defensives buying.
How To Read The Board
RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25–40 is oversold, and it means little without the long-horizon columns: here, small caps are oversold while still above their 200-day, and the bonds are oversold below it. RSI 40–70 is neutral to healthy; 70 and above is extended. "vs SMA" is the distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" show whether the trend is intact. The Signal column labels each row: intact (above the 200-day, up on the year), repairing (above the 200-day, down on the year), under test (below the 200-day, up on the year) or broken (below the 200-day, down on the year). For VIXY and VXX, a low reading means calm markets, not an entry. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and holds. The tables show 7-day, 30-day and one-year changes ending at the 2026-10-09 close.
🔴 Neutral, soft, below 200-day, year negative (broken)
Across the groups. Intact (above the 200-day and up on the year): the broad indices, equal weight included; growth, momentum, quality and value (VUG, MTUM, QUAL, VTV); technology, semis, security and cloud; energy and oil (XLE, XOP, USO); healthcare and biotech (XLV, XBI); developed and emerging markets outside China (EFA, EWJ, EEM, VWO); financials; and copper miners. Repairing (above the 200-day, down on the year): software (IGV) and ARK Innovation (ARKK). Under test (below the 200-day, still up on the year): industrials, materials, staples, real estate, transports, retail, airlines, regional banks, metals miners, gold and silver. Broken (below the 200-day and down on the year): all five bond and credit funds, utilities, consumer discretionary, communications, homebuilders, China (FXI, KWEB), solar, uranium, aerospace-defense (ITA) and natural gas. The broken side is mostly rate-sensitive.
Tier Analysis
Tier
Names
Read
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
none
On October 2 it held six names. Leaving the band is not the same as turning: no bond fund has reclaimed its 200-day
Only IWM is a pullback above its 200-day. The bonds, housing, airlines, defense, uranium and regional banks are below theirs. Low readings on VIXY and VXX mean calm markets
Mostly intact trends. CIBR and SKYY are at the top of the range, near their highs. Gold, silver, China and solar sit here on RSI alone and are below their 200-days
Extended (RSI 70+)
none
—
Entry Zones
Each level marks where a pullback stays a flag or turns into a break. These are conditions to watch, not orders.
A strong week, but still under its 200-day and down on the year
GLD, SLV
🟡
⚠️ Caution
Below their 200-days; years still positive
XHB, ITB, KWEB, FXI, URA, TAN, ITA
🔴
⚠️ Caution
Below their 200-days and down on the year
What To Watch Next
The index line. Can the S&P 500 fund close above $779.37 twice? Its first support is the 20-day average.
Bank earnings, October 13. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to report. Does XLF hold its 200-day, and can KRE reclaim its own?
September CPI, October 14. Do the bond funds reclaim their 20-day averages, or does a hot print push the 10-year further above 5%? The October 8 market brief named a high-yield spread of 3.50 or a VIX of 20 as the levels that would turn rate pressure into credit stress.
ASML (October 14) and TSMC (October 15). Does SMH hold its 50-day through the chip reports after the OpenAI-driven selloff?
Friday's software and security jump. Does a cause surface for CIBR's and IGV's Friday gains, and do CIBR and SKYY cool without breaking their 20-days?
The Gulf. Iranian tanker attacks and the hurricane threat to US Gulf output (CNBC, October 8) keep energy headline-driven. USO is the trend to watch.
Prior edition: 2026-10-02 market pulse (2026-10-02-market-pulse); bands and lists compared, numbers not reprinted.
Market briefs of October 5, 6, 7 and 8, 2026 (2026-10-05-market-brief through 2026-10-08-market-brief): the $779.37 confirmation line, the October 8 SMH move, Constellation's October 6 move, FRED 10-year as of October 7, the high-yield and VIX stress lines, the bank-earnings and CPI dates.
CNBC, October 7, 2026: Fed officials see another hike coming, but no sign as to when, minutes show (2026-10-07-cnbc-fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-108374079)
Cause checks for October 9 moves: no file in articles or tweets is dated 2026-10-09; research/stock-events/ holds only DAL and ORCL entries for the date.