Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical election-cycle tendency is a low-confidence scenario, not a calendar entry rule. The thesis monitors an early breadth/cyclical turn and a failed-window branch.

Why now

Retire the calendar overlay as an independent campaign. Its breadth and volatility observations belong in the climate review; seasonality alone does not warrant an entry case.

In scope

The historical election-cycle tendency is a low-confidence scenario, not a calendar entry rule. The thesis monitors an early breadth/cyclical turn and a failed-window branch.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

Original Q4 2026 watch retained as history, not an entry rule.

What supports it

Registered gates: SPY RSI above55 with positive30-day; IWM30-day above0 and7-day above1.5%; XLY30-day above2%; VIXY7-day below-10%; SPY20% below52-week high invalidates. Dates and full conjuncts must be checked.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · A distinct evidence-backed election mechanism beyond the calendar could justify a successor; ordinary breadth changes go to climate review.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Retire the calendar overlay as an independent campaign. Its breadth and volatility observations belong in the climate review; seasonality alone does not warrant an entry case.