The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch · Campaigns
The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch
closed · Macro · Policy
Reviews
The case as it stood at each review, with the original call references and current outcomes.
Scope review: midterm-window
Campaign review · 2026-09-06 · data as of 2026-09-04
Retire the calendar overlay as an independent campaign. Its breadth and volatility observations belong in the climate review; seasonality alone does not warrant an entry case.
Retire the calendar overlay as an independent campaign. Its breadth and volatility observations belong in the climate review; seasonality alone does not warrant an entry case. Scope reviewed on September 6; source dates remain original. This is a research-priority and evidence-boundary review, not an entry call or a fresh historical performance grade.
0 original calls referenced · 0/0 directional calls have 30-day outcomes · 0/0 directional calls have 90-day outcomes
Case at review: Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical election-cycle tendency is a low-confidence scenario, not a calendar entry rule. The thesis monitors an early breadth/cyclical turn and a failed-window branch.
Retire the calendar overlay as an independent campaign. Its breadth and volatility observations belong in the climate review; seasonality alone does not warrant an entry case.
Horizon: Original Q4 2026 watch retained as history, not an entry rule.
Failure conditions: The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.
- A distinct evidence-backed election mechanism beyond the calendar could justify a successor; ordinary breadth changes go to climate review.